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Top 5 misconceptions about the economy in 2023 on December 28, 2023 at 11:15 am Business News | The Hill

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2023 was a year in which many experts got a lot of things wrong about the economy. 

From mistaken forecasts about an impending recession to errors about falling prices and why they had risen in the first place, 2023 was a year marked by economic confusion.

Even the Federal Reserve got disoriented, predicting an economic downturn at the beginning of the year and then yanking that prediction over the summer.

This waffling peeved some major players in the financial industry, including JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, who called the Fed out for providing unreliable guidance and being “100 percent dead wrong.”

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“Central banks 18 months ago were 100 percent dead wrong. Maybe there should be humility about financial forecasting,” he said during a panel event in Saudi Arabia in October.

Here’s a look back at some of the biggest misconceptions about the economy of 2023.

Rising interest rates are sure to cause a recession

There was virtual certainty among economists at the end of last year that 2023 would see a recession. The debate was whether that recession would be short-lived and relatively superficial or long and serious, entailing a major spike in unemployment.

“The recession we have now been anticipating for nine months draws nearer,” Deutsche Bank analysts Peter Hooper and David Folkerts-Landau wrote in November of last year. “Our expectation for a recession in the US by mid-2023 has strengthened.”

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That incorrect forecasting was based on the assumption that rising interest rates would directly slow the economy, tanking markets and causing workers to be fired.

“The economic downturns along with the aggressive monetary tightening and geopolitical and commodity shocks that induce them will be temporarily painful in financial and emerging markets. We see major stock markets plunging 25 percent from levels somewhat above today’s when the US recession hits, but then recovering fully by year-end 2023, assuming the recession lasts only several quarters,” Folkerts-Landau and Hooper wrote.

But the Fed’s program of tightening led neither to mass unemployment nor to a stock market dive. On the contrary, gross domestic product surged to a 4.9-percent quarterly increase during the third quarter.

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The most the Dow Jones Industrial Average of major US stocks lost from its November 2022, level was about 7 percent in March of this year. The Dow has since risen 9.5 percent above that level, setting several new records this month, and unemployment has remained below 4 percent.

Unemployment needs to go up for inflation to go down

Economists have long correlated inflation and unemployment in part because employment costs are the major portion of overhead paid by companies. In the third quarter of this year, employee compensation was about 58 percent of real prices, input costs were about 26 percent, and profits were about 16 percent.

To stop rising prices, many economists believed the Fed needed to put the squeeze on workers’ paychecks with higher interest rates and then watch consumer demand and overhead costs fall and prices along with them. Or so the conventional thinking went.

“Persistent levels of inflation suggest the need for reduced economic activity to cool inflation to 2 percent … This would spark job losses, which we do expect to see based on the Fed’s forecasts,” Michael Weisz, president of investment firm Yieldstreet, wrote in an analysis at the end of last year.

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But 2023 unbuckled the correlation between unemployment and inflation.

Headline inflation as measured in the consumer price index (CPI) fell from a 6.3-percent annual increase in January off a high last year of nearly 9 percent to just 3.1 percent in November. 

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, a different measure of inflation preferred by the Fed, fell from a 5.5-percent annual increase in January to just 2.6 percent in November – close to the the Fed’s 2-percent target.

The sharp drop in inflation came as the jobless rate barely moved.. Since inflation hit its 9-percent peak last June, unemployment has stayed between 3.4 and 3.9 percent — a far cry from the ranges of 6, 7 and even 10 percent predicted last summer.

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Wages aren’t rising for the lowest-paid workers

Amid so much concern over the magnitude and trajectory of inflation, average hourly earnings for all US workers have actually kept pace with rising prices since the pandemic started in March 2020. 

In fact, earnings have risen 19.4 percent since February 2020, slightly outpacing the increase in the CPI of 18.8 percent over the same period. Lower-wage workers have seen a greater share of these gains, contributing to a shrinking of income inequality in the US. 

For production and nonsupervisory workers, who account for the majority of the U.S. workforce, their wages have increased 21.9 percent since just before the pandemic, more than 3 percentage points higher than the increase in the CPI.

Hospitality and leisure industry staff, who are some of the lowest paid people in the economy, have seen their wages rise 27 percent over the same period.

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“The pandemic … [reduced] employer market power and [spurred] rapid relative wage growth among young noncollege workers who disproportionately moved from lower-paying to higher-paying and potentially more-productive jobs,” researchers from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the University of Massachusetts Amherst found earlier this year.

Rising markets, low unemployment will make people feel good

Despite solid economic performance data and a lot of salesmanship from the Biden administration, Americans have still been gloomy about the economy — a disconnect lamented and puzzled over by many financial commentators.

A December poll from Bankrate found that most Americans think the economy is currently experiencing a downturn, majorities those earning under $50,000 annually and those making more than $100,000 a year saying they feel like the U.S. economy is in a recession.

This gloom has translated into poor public opinion polling for President Biden. A November poll from Gallup found that just 32 percent of Americans approved of his handling of the economy.

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But sentiment could be turning around in a major way. The latest Michigan Survey of Consumer Sentiment found a major brightening of the economic mood across various categories, reversing a fourth-month downward trend.

“These trends are rooted in substantial improvements in how consumers view the trajectory of inflation,” University of Michigan pollsters wrote. “All five index components rose this month, which has only occurred in 10 percent of readings since 1978. Expected business conditions surged over 25 percent for both the short and long run.”

Inflation had a single, clear-cut origin

Democrats and liberal economists have argued that inflation during the past year was caused primarily by supply-side disruptions while Republicans and conservative economists have blamed inflation on higher demand, boosted by trillions of dollars in pandemic stimulus.

Other economists have said the blame should fall mostly with corporations who took the opportunity of consumers’ being flush with cash to raise their prices and boost their profit margins.

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The Ukraine war’s effect on energy prices and further variants of the coronavirus that extended the pandemic in 2021 were also fingered as culprits.

In fact, all of these factors contributed to varying degrees to the inflation that took off internationally starting in 2021 and lasted into this year. Holding up any single cause as the lone perpetrator ignores the dynamics between governments and the private sector that underlie the economy and international price system.

“Inflation eases at different rates across countries, due to their economic structures,” United Nations economists wrote in their 2023 trade and development report.

“As the cost of key inputs accelerates, several circumstances allow firms to gain higher profits by setting their prices following the general increasing trend, even if the goods were produced when inputs were cheaper,” they wrote. “Monetary policy is not to be used as a sole policy tool to alleviate inflationary pressures. With supply-side problems still unaddressed, a policy mix is needed to attain financial sustainability.”

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​Business, Economy, News, federal reserve, Federal reserve rate hikes, inflation, Interest rates, prices, Recession, Stock Market, unemployment, Wages 2023 was a year in which many experts got a lot of things wrong about the economy. From mistaken forecasts about an impending recession to errors about falling prices and why they had risen in the first place, 2023 was a year marked by economic confusion. Even the Federal Reserve got disoriented, predicting an economic…  

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GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY SUMMIT RETURNS FOR ITS 5TH EDITION AT THE BRITISH PARLIAMENT – HOUSE OF LORDS, PALACE OF WESTMINSTER

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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Theme: “People, Planet, and Profit in the Age of AI and Innovation”

London, United Kingdom — The Global Sustainability Summit (GSS) is officially back for its landmark 5th Edition, continuing its legacy as one of the leading international platforms driving sustainable development, climate action, ethical investment, innovation, and global collaboration.

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Convened annually at the prestigious British Parliament, House of Lords, Palace of Westminster, by Ambassador Canon Chinenem Otto, the Summit has, over the last four years, successfully fostered international dialogue and partnerships that have contributed to the advancement of global sustainability goals, the establishment of sustainability-focused ministries, departments and policy structures across national and subnational governments, and the attraction of major investors into sustainable development projects, corporations and emerging economies.

This year’s summit, themed “People, Planet, and Profit in the Age of AI and Innovation,” will explore how emerging technologies, responsible leadership, sustainable finance, innovation, and global partnerships can shape a more inclusive, resilient and environmentally conscious future.

The 5th Edition promises to be the most impactful yet, bringing together world leaders, policymakers, diplomats, investors, academics, innovators, climate experts and youth leaders from across the globe to discuss actionable solutions toward achieving a sustainable and equitable future.

Among the distinguished speakers, delegates and honorees already lined up for the Summit are:

• His Excellency Mallam AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq — Executive Governor of Kwara State, Nigeria and Chairman of the Nigeria Governors’ Forum

• His Excellency Senator Prince Bassey Otu — Executive Governor of Cross River State, Nigeria

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• Ambassador Patricia Espinosa Cantellano — Former Executive Secretary of UN Climate Change (UNFCCC) and Former Foreign Minister of Mexico

• Lord Marvin Rees, Baron Rees of Easton OBE — Member of the House of Lords, United Kingdom

• Hon. Neema K. Lugangira — Secretary-General of Women Political Leaders (WPL), Brussels and Former Member of Parliament

• Her Excellency Dr. Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah — President of the Republic of Namibia

• His Excellency Nangolo Mbumba — Former President of Namibia

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• Former President of Tanzania

• Her Excellency Ambassador Professor Olufolake AbdulRazaq — First Lady of Kwara State, Nigeria and Chairperson of Nigeria Governors’ Spouses Forum

• Your Excellency Dr. Dikko Umar Radda, PhD, CON — Executive Governor of Katsina State and Chairman of the Northwest Governors Forum, Nigeria

• Hon. Sam Shafiishuna Nujoma — Governor of Khomas Region, Namibia

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• H.E. Mr. Veiccoh Nghiwete — High Commissioner of the Republic of Namibia to the United Kingdom

• Her Excellency Ms. Macenje “Che Che” Mazoka — High Commissioner of Zambia to the United Kingdom

• Ms. Danielle Newman — Partner Lead, ICT, World Economic Forum

• Leanne Elliott Young — Co-founder, Institute of Digital Fashion & CommuneEast

• Ms. Chloe Russell — Producer & Presenter, Art, Science and Nature

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• Professor Marie-Claire Cordonier Segger — University of Cambridge & University of Waterloo

• Dr. Alexandra R. Harrington — IUCN World Commission on Environmental Law (WCEL)

• Professor Payam Akhavan — Massey College, University of Toronto

• Mr. Mallai C. E. Sathya — President, Dravida Vetri Kazhagam and International Movement for Tamil Culture Asia

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The Summit will feature high-level panel discussions, strategic investment conversations, sustainability awards, policy dialogues, innovation showcases, youth engagement sessions and international networking opportunities focused on climate resilience, ethical financing, food-water-energy sustainability, circular economy, artificial intelligence, diplomacy and sustainable development.

Speaking ahead of the Summit, Convener Ambassador Canon Chinenem Otto noted:

“As the world rapidly evolves through artificial intelligence and technological innovation, we must ensure that sustainability remains people-centered, environmentally responsible and economically inclusive. The Global Sustainability Summit continues to serve as a bridge connecting governments, institutions, innovators and investors to accelerate practical sustainability solutions globally. Our fifth edition is not only a celebration of progress made over the years, but also a renewed call for global collaboration and actionable impact toward achieving the Sustainable Development Goals and Net Zero ambitions.”

The Global Sustainability Summit continues to position itself as a catalyst for transformative partnerships and sustainable global progress, reinforcing the urgent need for collective action toward a more resilient and sustainable future.

More announcements regarding additional speakers, partners and summit activities will be unveiled in the coming weeks.

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What the Michael Biopic Means for Every Indie Filmmaker

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The Michael Jackson biopic Michael is more than celebrity drama; it is a real-time lesson in how legal decisions can quietly rewrite a story that millions of people will see. You do not need a $200M budget for the same forces—contracts, settlements, and rights issues—to shape or even erase key parts of your own work.

“The Michael Jackson Movie Is A HUGE HIT!” by Adam Does Movies, CC BY, via YouTube.

What Happened to Michael

The film Michael originally included a third act that addressed the 1993 child sexual abuse allegations and their impact on Jackson’s life and career. Trade reports say this version showed investigators at Neverland Ranch and dramatized the scandal as a turning point in the story. After cameras rolled, lawyers for the Jackson estate realized there was a clause in the settlement with accuser Jordan Chandler that barred any depiction or mention of him in a movie.

Because of that old agreement, the filmmakers had to remove all references to Chandler and rework the ending so the story stopped years earlier, in the late 1980s at Jackson’s commercial peak.

According to reporting, this meant roughly 22 days of reshoots, costing around 10–15 million dollars and pushing the total budget over 200 million.

Meanwhile, actress Kat Graham confirmed her portrayal of Diana Ross was cut for “legal considerations,” showing how likeness and approval issues can wipe out an entire character even after filming.

For audiences, the result is a movie that intentionally avoids one of the most controversial chapters of Jackson’s life, which some critics argue makes the portrait feel incomplete or selectively curated.

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The Hidden Power of Contracts and Rights

The key detail in the Michael story is that a contract signed decades ago could dictate what present-day filmmakers are allowed to show. That settlement clause did not just affect the people who signed it; it effectively controlled the narrative of a big-budget film made years later. This is how legal documents become invisible co-authors: they quietly set boundaries around what your story can and cannot include.

Creators face similar invisible lines with:

  • Life-rights and defamation: If you dramatize real people, especially in a negative light, they can claim defamation or invasion of privacy if your portrayal is inaccurate or harmful.
  • Copyright and trademarks: Unlicensed music, clips, logos, or artwork can trigger copyright or trademark claims that block distribution or force expensive changes.
  • Distribution contracts: Some deals give distributors the right to re-edit, retitle, or repackage your work without your approval unless you negotiate otherwise.

Legal commentary warns that fictionalizing real events and people carries heightened risk because audiences tend to connect your dramatization back to actual individuals. That risk does not disappear just because you are “small” or “indie”; impact, not audience size, usually determines exposure.


Why This Matters for Indie Filmmakers and Creators

Independent filmmakers often choose the indie route precisely to maintain creative control, but they can face more risk if they skip legal planning. Common problems include unclear ownership of the script, missing music licenses, handshake agreements with collaborators, and no written permission to use locations or people’s likenesses. These are the kinds of issues that can derail distribution, block a streaming deal, or force last-minute cuts that fundamentally change your story.

Legal guides for indie filmmakers consistently emphasize a few realities:

  • You do not fully “own” your film unless you have clear contracts for writing, directing, producing, and underlying rights.
  • Unregistered or unlicensed creative elements (like music and logos) can make your project uninsurable or unattractive to distributors.
  • Fixing legal problems after the fact is almost always more expensive and limiting than planning for them at the beginning.

So when you watch Michael skip over certain events, you are seeing, in exaggerated form, the same forces that can shape an indie short, web series, documentary, or podcast episode.


You do not need a law degree, but you do need a basic legal strategy for your creative work. Here are practical steps drawn from entertainment-law and indie-film resources:

  1. Clarify who owns the story
    • Use written agreements with co-writers, directors, and producers that state who owns the script and finished film.
    • If your work is based on a real person or memoir, secure life-rights or written permission where appropriate, especially if the portrayal is sensitive.
  2. Be intentional with real people and events
    • When telling true or inspired-by-true stories, avoid making specific, negative claims about identifiable people unless they are well-documented and legally vetted.
    • Change names, details, and circumstances enough that the person is not clearly identifiable if you do not have their cooperation.
  3. Lock down music and visuals
    • Use original scores, licensed tracks, or reputable libraries; never assume you can keep a song just because it is in a rough cut.
    • Clear artwork, logos, and recognizable brands, or replace them with generic or custom-designed alternatives.
HCFF
HCFF
  1. Protect yourself in contracts
    • When signing any distribution or platform deal, read the clauses about editing, retitling, and marketing carefully; ask for limits or at least consultation rights.
    • Include terms that let you reclaim rights if a partner fails to release the work, goes dark, or breaches key promises.
  2. Document everything
    • Keep organized copies of releases, licenses, and contracts; these documents are part of your project’s value and proof of your rights.
    • Register your work where applicable (for example, copyright), which strengthens your ability to enforce your rights if someone copies you.

Education-focused legal resources repeatedly stress that preventative steps—basic contracts, clear permissions, and simple registrations—are far cheaper than dealing with takedowns, lawsuits, or forced rewrites later.


The Big Takeaway: Story and Law Are Connected

The Michael biopic illustrates what happens when legal obligations and creative vision collide: whole characters disappear, endings are rewritten, and the public only sees a version of the story that fits within old contracts.

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As an indie filmmaker, writer, or content creator, you may not have millions at stake, but you do have something just as valuable—your voice and your ability to tell the story you meant to tell.

Understanding the legal dimensions of your work is not a distraction from creativity; it is a way of protecting it. When you know where the legal boundaries are, you can design stories that are bold, truthful, and still safe enough to reach the audiences they deserve.

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How Epstein’s Cash Shaped Artists, Agencies, and Algorithms

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Jeffrey Epstein’s money did more than buy private jets and legal leverage. It flowed into the same ecosystem that decides which artists get pushed to the front, which research gets labeled “cutting edge,” and which stories about race and power are treated as respectable debate instead of hate speech. That doesn’t mean he sat in a control room programming playlists. It means his worldview seeped into institutions that already shape what we hear, see, and believe.

The Gatekeepers and Their Stains

The fallout around Casey Wasserman is a vivid example of how this works. Wasserman built a powerhouse talent and marketing agency that controls a major slice of sports, entertainment, and the global touring business. When the Epstein files revealed friendly, flirtatious exchanges between Wasserman and Ghislaine Maxwell, and documented his ties to Epstein’s circle, artists and staff began to question whose money and relationships were quietly underwriting their careers.

That doesn’t prove Epstein “created” any particular star. But it shows that a man deeply entangled with Epstein was sitting at a choke point: deciding which artists get representation, which tours get resources, which festivals and campaigns happen. In an industry built on access and favor, proximity to someone like Epstein is not just gossip; it signals which values are tolerated at the top.

When a gatekeeper with that history sits between artists and the public, “the industry” stops being an abstract machine and starts looking like a web of human choices — choices that, for years, were made in rooms where Epstein’s name wasn’t considered a disqualifier.

Funding Brains, Not Just Brands

Epstein’s interest in culture didn’t end with celebrity selfies. He was obsessed with the science of brains, intelligence, and behavior — and that’s where his money begins to overlap with how audiences are modeled and, eventually, how algorithms are trained.

He cultivated relationships with scientists at elite universities and funded research into genomics, cognition, and brain development. In one high‑profile case, a UCLA professor specializing in music and the brain corresponded with Epstein for years and accepted funding for an institute focused on how music affects neural circuits. On its face, that looks like straightforward philanthropy. Put it next to his email trail and a different pattern appears.

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Epstein’s correspondence shows him pushing eugenics and “race science” again and again — arguing that genetic differences explain test score gaps between Black and white people, promoting the idea of editing human beings under the euphemism of “genetic altruism,” and surrounding himself with thinkers who entertained those frames. One researcher in his orbit described Black children as biologically better suited to running and hunting than to abstract thinking.

So you have a financier who is:

  • Funding brain and behavior research.
  • Deeply invested in ranking human groups by intelligence.
  • Embedded in networks that shape both scientific agendas and cultural production.

None of that proves a specific piece of music research turned into a specific Spotify recommendation. But it does show how his ideology was given time, money, and legitimacy in the very spaces that define what counts as serious knowledge about human minds.

How Ideas Leak Into Algorithms

There is another layer that is easier to see: what enters the knowledge base that machines learn from.

Fringe researchers recently misused a large U.S. study of children’s genetics and brain development to publish papers claiming racial hierarchies in IQ and tying Black people’s economic outcomes to supposed genetic deficits. Those papers then showed up as sources in answers from large AI systems when users asked about race and intelligence. Even after mainstream scientists criticized the work, it had already entered both the academic record and the training data of systems that help generate and rank content.

Epstein did not write those specific papers, but he funded the kind of people and projects that keep race‑IQ discourse alive inside elite spaces. Once that thinking is in the mix, recommendation engines and search systems don’t have to be explicitly racist to reproduce it. They simply mirror what’s in their training data and what has been treated as “serious” research.

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Zoomed out, the pipeline looks less like a neat conspiracy and more like an ecosystem:

  • Wealthy men fund “edgy” work on genes, brains, and behavior.
  • Some of that work revives old racist ideas with new data and jargon.
  • Those studies get scraped, indexed, and sometimes amplified by AI systems.
  • The same platforms host and boost music, video, and news — making decisions shaped by engagement patterns built on biased narratives.

The algorithm deciding what you see next is standing downstream from all of this.

The Celebrity as Smoke Screen

Epstein’s contact lists are full of directors, actors, musicians, authors, and public intellectuals. Many now insist they had no idea what he was doing. Some probably didn’t; others clearly chose not to ask. From Epstein’s perspective, the value of those relationships is obvious.

Being seen in orbit around beloved artists and cultural figures created a reputational firewall. If the public repeatedly saw him photographed with geniuses, Oscar winners, and hit‑makers, their brains filed him under “eccentric patron” rather than “dangerous predator.”

That softens the landing for his ideas, too. Race science sounds less toxic when it’s discussed over dinner at a university‑backed salon or exchanged in emails with a famous thinker.

The more oxygen is spent on the celebrity angle — who flew on which plane, who sat at which dinner — the less attention is left for what may matter more in the long run: the way his money and ideology were welcomed by institutions that shape culture and knowledge.

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Ghislaine Maxwell seen alongside Jeffrey Epstein in newly-released Epstein files from the DOJ. (DOJ)

What to Love, Who to Fear

The point is not to claim that Jeffrey Epstein was secretly programming your TikTok feed or hand‑picking your favorite rapper. The deeper question is what happens when a man with his worldview is allowed to invest in the people and institutions that decide:

  • Which artists are “marketable.”
  • Which scientific questions are “important.”
  • Which studies are “serious” enough to train our machines on.
  • Which faces and stories are framed as aspirational — and which as dangerous.

If your media diet feels saturated with certain kinds of Black representation — hyper‑visible in music and sports, under‑represented in positions of uncontested authority — while “objective” science quietly debates Black intelligence, that’s not random drift. It’s the outcome of centuries of narrative work that men like Epstein bought into and helped sustain.

No one can draw a straight, provable line from his bank account to a specific song or recommendation. But the lines he did draw — to elite agencies, to brain and music research, to race‑obsessed science networks — are enough to show this: his money was not only paying for crimes in private. It was also buying him a seat at the tables where culture and knowledge are made, where the stories about who to love and who to fear get quietly agreed upon.

Bill Clinton and English musician Mick Jagger in newly-released Epstein files from the DOJ. (DOJ)

A Challenge to Filmmakers and Creatives

For anyone making culture inside this system, that’s the uncomfortable part: this isn’t just a story about “them.” It’s also a story about you.

Filmmakers, showrunners, musicians, actors, and writers all sit at points where money, narrative, and visibility intersect. You rarely control where the capital ultimately comes from, but you do control what you validate, what you reproduce, and what you challenge.

Questions worth carrying into every room:

  • Whose gaze are you serving when you pitch, cast, and cut?
  • Which Black characters are being centered — and are they full humans or familiar stereotypes made safe for gatekeepers?
  • When someone says a project is “too political,” “too niche,” or “bad for the algorithm,” whose comfort is really being protected?
  • Are you treating “the industry” as a neutral force, or as a set of human choices you can push against?

If wealth like Epstein’s can quietly seep into agencies, labs, and institutions that decide what gets made and amplified, then the stories you choose to tell — and refuse to tell — become one of the few levers of resistance inside that machine. You may not control every funding source, but you can decide whether your work reinforces a world where Black people are data points and aesthetics, or one where they are subjects, authors, and owners.

The industry will always have its “gatekeepers.” The open question is whether creatives accept that role as fixed, or start behaving like counter‑programmers: naming the patterns, refusing easy archetypes, and building alternative pathways, platforms, and partnerships wherever possible. In a landscape where money has long been used to decide what to love and who to fear, your choices about whose stories get light are not just artistic decisions. They are acts of power.

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