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What does the Israel-Hamas conflict mean for oil prices? on October 9, 2023 at 10:47 pm

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Global oil prices have jumped, inflamed by violence in Israel and Gaza.

Over the weekend, militants with Hamas, which governs Gaza and has been designated by the State Department as a terrorist organization, attacked Israel, killing hundreds and also taking hostages. 

As of Monday, at least 900 Israelis, most of them civilians, had been killed. More than 560 Palestinians have been killed in retaliation from Israel, ABC News reported, citing Palestinian authorities. 

The violence sent oil prices upward. 

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The price of international oil benchmark Brent Crude closed at under $85 per barrel Friday. On Monday, prices were up to about $88 per barrel. 

“Any time you have a conflict in the Middle East, that tends to create a geopolitical risk premium,” said Ben Cahill, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. 

“It’s not a huge bounce, but it’s notable because there was a big sell-off in the oil price late last week,” Cahill said.

Oil prices had taken a tumble over the last few weeks, with Brent Crude down from as high as $94 per barrel in late September. That drop came with concerns that the economy could slow down, including because of high interest rates. 

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Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis with the Oil Price Information Service, said that he expects oil prices to remain fairly stagnant for the time being, despite the weekend’s increase.

“I think we’re going to trade in the 80s for quite a while, and if there’s no expansion of the theater of war, there’s not a real catalyst to take it higher,” Kloza said. 

Kloza said that he still expects gasoline prices to fall in the weeks ahead, following a recent decline in oil price before this weekend.

“There’s still somewhere between 20 to 40 cents a gallon in a downtrend to catch up with,” he said.

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Cahill also said the oil price bump could be short-lived, though the situation really depends on whether Iran was involved in the attack on Israel, and if so, what the global response will be.

“It’s possible that the price bounce could be pretty short-lived, ultimately. We have to wait and see what happens. The big question … is what happens with Iran.”

The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday that Iran helped plan the attack, but a key Biden administration official said Monday that the U.S. government could not corroborate that report. 

Deputy national security adviser Jon Finer told “Good Morning America” on Monday that while “Iran is broadly complicit in these attacks for having supported Hamas going back decades,” there’s currently “no evidence of direct support” for this specific attack. 

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When it comes to oil, whether Iran was involved may be a big difference maker. 

Kloza said that if Iran’s “fingerprints show up on this” he expects to see a “war fear premium” ranging from $5 per barrel to $20 per barrel.

Cahill noted that Iranian oil exports have been on the rise since May and have provided some “buffer” to help offset the impacts of Saudi Arabia’s ongoing oil production cuts.

“Now, I think there will be a lot of speculation that U.S. sanctions enforcement on Iran will increase if there’s clear evidence that Iran has materially supported Hamas, so what happens next with Iranian exports I think is the key question to watch,” Cahill said.

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Brenda Shaffer, a professor at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School specializing in international energy and foreign policy, said that Israel could attack infrastructure in Iran, which would further drive up oil prices. 

“Israel could attack at some point strategic infrastructure in Iran, and that also would raise the global oil price,” Shaffer said.

​ Global oil prices have jumped, inflamed by violence in Israel and Gaza. Over the weekend, militants with Hamas, which governs Gaza and has been designated by the State Department as a terrorist organization, attacked Israel, killing hundreds and also taking hostages. As of Monday, at least 900 Israelis, most of them civilians, had been killed. More… 

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GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY SUMMIT RETURNS FOR ITS 5TH EDITION AT THE BRITISH PARLIAMENT – HOUSE OF LORDS, PALACE OF WESTMINSTER

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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Theme: “People, Planet, and Profit in the Age of AI and Innovation”

London, United Kingdom — The Global Sustainability Summit (GSS) is officially back for its landmark 5th Edition, continuing its legacy as one of the leading international platforms driving sustainable development, climate action, ethical investment, innovation, and global collaboration.

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Convened annually at the prestigious British Parliament, House of Lords, Palace of Westminster, by Ambassador Canon Chinenem Otto, the Summit has, over the last four years, successfully fostered international dialogue and partnerships that have contributed to the advancement of global sustainability goals, the establishment of sustainability-focused ministries, departments and policy structures across national and subnational governments, and the attraction of major investors into sustainable development projects, corporations and emerging economies.

This year’s summit, themed “People, Planet, and Profit in the Age of AI and Innovation,” will explore how emerging technologies, responsible leadership, sustainable finance, innovation, and global partnerships can shape a more inclusive, resilient and environmentally conscious future.

The 5th Edition promises to be the most impactful yet, bringing together world leaders, policymakers, diplomats, investors, academics, innovators, climate experts and youth leaders from across the globe to discuss actionable solutions toward achieving a sustainable and equitable future.

Among the distinguished speakers, delegates and honorees already lined up for the Summit are:

• His Excellency Mallam AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq — Executive Governor of Kwara State, Nigeria and Chairman of the Nigeria Governors’ Forum

• His Excellency Senator Prince Bassey Otu — Executive Governor of Cross River State, Nigeria

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• Ambassador Patricia Espinosa Cantellano — Former Executive Secretary of UN Climate Change (UNFCCC) and Former Foreign Minister of Mexico

• Lord Marvin Rees, Baron Rees of Easton OBE — Member of the House of Lords, United Kingdom

• Hon. Neema K. Lugangira — Secretary-General of Women Political Leaders (WPL), Brussels and Former Member of Parliament

• Her Excellency Dr. Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah — President of the Republic of Namibia

• His Excellency Nangolo Mbumba — Former President of Namibia

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• Former President of Tanzania

• Her Excellency Ambassador Professor Olufolake AbdulRazaq — First Lady of Kwara State, Nigeria and Chairperson of Nigeria Governors’ Spouses Forum

• Your Excellency Dr. Dikko Umar Radda, PhD, CON — Executive Governor of Katsina State and Chairman of the Northwest Governors Forum, Nigeria

• Hon. Sam Shafiishuna Nujoma — Governor of Khomas Region, Namibia

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• H.E. Mr. Veiccoh Nghiwete — High Commissioner of the Republic of Namibia to the United Kingdom

• Her Excellency Ms. Macenje “Che Che” Mazoka — High Commissioner of Zambia to the United Kingdom

• Ms. Danielle Newman — Partner Lead, ICT, World Economic Forum

• Leanne Elliott Young — Co-founder, Institute of Digital Fashion & CommuneEast

• Ms. Chloe Russell — Producer & Presenter, Art, Science and Nature

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• Professor Marie-Claire Cordonier Segger — University of Cambridge & University of Waterloo

• Dr. Alexandra R. Harrington — IUCN World Commission on Environmental Law (WCEL)

• Professor Payam Akhavan — Massey College, University of Toronto

• Mr. Mallai C. E. Sathya — President, Dravida Vetri Kazhagam and International Movement for Tamil Culture Asia

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The Summit will feature high-level panel discussions, strategic investment conversations, sustainability awards, policy dialogues, innovation showcases, youth engagement sessions and international networking opportunities focused on climate resilience, ethical financing, food-water-energy sustainability, circular economy, artificial intelligence, diplomacy and sustainable development.

Speaking ahead of the Summit, Convener Ambassador Canon Chinenem Otto noted:

“As the world rapidly evolves through artificial intelligence and technological innovation, we must ensure that sustainability remains people-centered, environmentally responsible and economically inclusive. The Global Sustainability Summit continues to serve as a bridge connecting governments, institutions, innovators and investors to accelerate practical sustainability solutions globally. Our fifth edition is not only a celebration of progress made over the years, but also a renewed call for global collaboration and actionable impact toward achieving the Sustainable Development Goals and Net Zero ambitions.”

The Global Sustainability Summit continues to position itself as a catalyst for transformative partnerships and sustainable global progress, reinforcing the urgent need for collective action toward a more resilient and sustainable future.

More announcements regarding additional speakers, partners and summit activities will be unveiled in the coming weeks.

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US May Completely Cut Income Tax Due to Tariff Revenue

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President Donald Trump says the United States might one day get rid of federal income tax because of money the government collects from tariffs on imported goods. Tariffs are extra taxes the U.S. puts on products that come from other countries.

What Trump Is Saying

Trump has said that tariff money could become so large that it might allow the government to cut income taxes “almost completely.” He has also talked about possibly phasing out income tax over the next few years if tariff money keeps going up.

How Taxes Work Now

Right now, the federal government gets much more money from income taxes than from tariffs. Income taxes bring in trillions of dollars each year, while tariffs bring in only a small part of that total. Because of this gap, experts say tariffs would need to grow by many times to replace income tax money.

Questions From Experts

Many economists and tax experts doubt that tariffs alone could pay for the whole federal budget. They warn that very high tariffs could make many imported goods more expensive for shoppers in the United States. This could hit lower- and middle‑income families hardest, because they spend a big share of their money on everyday items.

What Congress Must Do

The president can change some tariffs, but only Congress can change or end the federal income tax. That means any real plan to remove income tax would need new laws passed by both the House of Representatives and the Senate. So far, there is no detailed law or full budget plan on this idea.

What It Means Right Now

For now, Trump’s comments are a proposal, not a change in the law. People and businesses still have to pay federal income tax under the current rules. The debate over using tariffs instead of income taxes is likely to continue among lawmakers, experts, and voters.

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Epstein Files to Be Declassified After Trump Order

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Former President Donald Trump has signed an executive order directing federal agencies to declassify all government files related to Jeffrey Epstein, the disgraced financier whose death in 2019 continues to fuel controversy and speculation.

The order, signed Wednesday at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate, instructs the FBI, Department of Justice, and intelligence agencies to release documents detailing Epstein’s network, finances, and alleged connections to high-profile figures. Trump described the move as “a step toward transparency and public trust,” promising that no names would be shielded from scrutiny.

“This information belongs to the American people,” Trump said in a televised statement. “For too long, powerful interests have tried to bury the truth. That ends now.”

U.S. intelligence officials confirmed that preparations for the release are already underway. According to sources familiar with the process, the first batch of documents is expected to be made public within the next 30 days, with additional releases scheduled over several months.

Reactions poured in across the political spectrum. Supporters praised the decision as a bold act of accountability, while critics alleged it was politically motivated, timed to draw attention during a volatile election season. Civil rights advocates, meanwhile, emphasized caution, warning that some records could expose private victims or ongoing legal matters.

The Epstein case, which implicated figures in politics, business, and entertainment, remains one of the most talked-about scandals of the past decade. Epstein’s connections to influential individuals—including politicians, royals, and executives—have long sparked speculation about the extent of his operations and who may have been involved.

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Former federal prosecutor Lauren Fields said the release could mark a turning point in public discourse surrounding government transparency. “Regardless of political stance, this declassification has the potential to reshape how Americans view power and accountability,” Fields noted.

Officials say redactions may still occur to protect sensitive intelligence or personal information, but the intent is a near-complete disclosure. For years, critics of the government’s handling of Epstein’s case have accused agencies of concealing evidence or shielding elites from exposure. Trump’s order promises to change that narrative.

As anticipation builds, journalists, legal analysts, and online commentators are preparing for what could be one of the most consequential information releases in recent history.

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