The military coup in Niger is threatening to engulf the region in a broader conflict while endangering a key U.S. security partnership in West Africa, where instability has given rise to growing terrorist threats.

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) will meet Thursday to discuss the situation in Niger and potential action, after the coup leaders failed to reverse course by a Sunday deadline set by the regional group. 

ECOWAS could impose economic sanctions or deploy military forces to the teetering country, where junta leader Abdourahamane Tchiani is standing by his self-imposed rule after toppling Niger President Mohamed Bazoum late last month. 

The crisis could shift the global balance of power in the region, as Niger has been a key Washington ally and hosts 1,100 U.S. troops largely deployed for counterterrorism efforts. 

Bryan Stern, founder and CEO of the international search and rescue nonprofit Project Dynamo, which works in West Africa, noted the Niger junta has already exchanged supportive signals with Russia’s mercenary company Wagner Group, which has sown instability across the region. 

Stern, a military veteran, said the U.S. is in “a tough spot” but should send a strong message that it won’t pack up and leave by bolstering its defenses and limiting evacuations to nonessential personnel.

“We have a very, very long track record of imposing administrative things on war, which doesn’t really work,” he argued. “So we demand a guy who just overthrew a government that he leave the White House in Niger? Why would he do that?”

Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh said the U.S. has paused military activity and training in Niger while it pushes for a “peaceful resolution” to the conflict, but said there was no planned withdrawal from the country.

“The United States does not want to abandon Nigerians that we’ve partnered with,” Singh said at a Tuesday press conference, referring to joint forces stationed in Niger. 

“Niger is, of course, an important ally within the region when it comes to counterterrorism and other operations, [and] it sends an incredibly effective message that we have not changed our force posture, that we have not taken our troops out right now.”

Flights to Niger have been shut down amid the crisis, which the U.S. has so far refused to call a “coup.” Western diplomats are still working to resolve the crisis peacefully, pushing for the release of Bazoum and the restoration of the constitutional government — though the window for mediation appears to be rapidly closing.

“Diplomacy is certainly the preferred way of resolving this situation,” said Secretary of State Antony Blinken in a Monday interview. “What we are seeing in Niger is extremely troubling and provides nothing to the country and its people.

“On the contrary, the interruption of this constitutional order puts us, and many other countries, in a position where we have to stop our aid, our support, and this will not benefit the people of Niger.”

A United Nations spokesperson Tuesday said the organization also supports the diplomatic route and was in touch with ECOWAS about solutions.

Acting Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland traveled to the capital of Niamey on Monday to speak with junta leaders and representatives. 

Nuland said in a call with reporters after the meeting that the “conversations were extremely frank and at times quite difficult.”

“It was not easy to get traction there,” Nuland said. “They are quite firm in their view on how they want to proceed, and it does not comport with the constitution of Niger.”

However, Tchiani has rejected attempts to mediate the tensions. The military ruler says he seized power from the democratically elected Bazoum because of widespread economic insecurity and festering violence, though it may have arisen from Bazoum considering removing Tchiani from his post, according to analysts.

Daniel Eizenga, a research fellow with the Africa Center for Strategic Studies at the National Defense University, which is funded by the Pentagon, said Tchiani likely understands that negotiations at this moment would result in the dissolution of his power.

So the military leader is “waiting it out“ to see if he can retain his hold on power and survive economic sanctions, Eizenga added. But those sanctions could quickly lead to major cuts to military paychecks, eroding his key base of support. 

“The reality is they have relatively little leverage. Their only card to play here is that they’re holding the legitimate president hostage,” Eizenga said. “And so long as they’re starved of recognition from the broader region and they continue to face the sanctions that they’ve been placed under, I think they’re gonna find that the room that they have to govern is pretty small.”

ECOWAS is made up of 15 member nations in West Africa, including Niger itself. The bloc has a shaky history in trying to restore order in countries embroiled in conflict, with economic sanctions usually doing little to resolve crises. 

The regional grouping has used force to restore order before, most recently in Gambia in 2017 after the ruling president failed to step down after an electoral defeat. The presence of ECOWAS troops alleviated the incident without a clash.

But ECOWAS intervention has a violent past. In Liberia, during a civil war in 1990, troops helped restore order but were also accused of human rights abuses.

Complicating the issue is a coalition of military juntas within West Africa. Four of the ECOWAS member nations are ruled by self-imposed military leaders and are suspended from the body. 

Two of those suspended members, Burkina Faso and Mali, have supported the coup in Niger and may react strongly to military intervention, according to Eizenga.

He said both nations lacked the resources for a full-fledged war, but the political divide points to a growing regional problem.

“Politically speaking, I think we’re seeing a kind of shift in the tides of a resurgence of military government,” he said. “And a very strategic effort on the part of these military juntas to try and put forth an ideological background for military government that has largely been absent from this region in the last 25 years.”

It’s unclear whether a broader conflict involving ECOWAS would create more chaos or promote stability in Niger. 

Stern, of Project Dynamo, said the Biden administration needs to carefully decide whether to back ECOWAS in any decision they make.

“We need to see how it unfolds,” he said, adding Washington needs to weigh “the moral, legal, ethical decision … and that’s always the safety of Americans and the preservation of life. And then, of course, regional stability.”

​ The military coup in Niger is threatening to engulf the region in a broader conflict while endangering a key U.S. security partnership in West Africa, where instability has given rise to growing terrorist threats. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) will meet Thursday to discuss the situation in Niger and potential action, after…