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Crisis in the Taiwan Strait likely in 2024, experts say on January 22, 2024 at 9:10 pm
A majority of experts believe a crisis in the Taiwan strait is likely in 2024, with a Chinese blockade or “quarantine” of the island seen as the most likely scenario.
That’s according to a new survey from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), which asked 87 leading U.S. and Taiwanese experts on cross-strait relations for their expectations for the future.
Most of these experts said China has the “capabilities to execute a law enforcement led-quarantine [or] a People’s Liberation Army (PLA)-led blockade of Taiwan,” but less believed a forceful invasion was possible.
The survey draws a distinction between a “quarantine” and a “blockade.” According to the report, a quarantine against Taiwan — the stifling of commercial routes by Chinese, nonmilitary actors — would signal a plan to coerce rather than usurp Taiwanese government.
A military blockade by the PLA would likely signal a goal “to force immediate unification in the next five years.”
A “crisis” is defined as a “significant increase in cross-strait tensions that is accompanied by at least a major PLA exercise aimed at coercing Taiwan and renewed Chinese threats to use force against the island.”
Kristen Gunness, senior policy researcher at the RAND corporation and speaker on a CSIS panel Monday morning, described the attraction of a quarantine/blockade approach as “a lower cost or lower risk means of coercing Taiwan” that simultaneously “puts pressure on Taiwan, the U.S. and our allies to figure out how to respond — it puts the burden of escalation on us.”
Gunness said U.S. decisionmakers need to calculate how to respond to scenarios in the Indo-Pacific short of an outright invasion.
According to the CSIS survey, 68 percent of U.S. experts said a Taiwan Strait crisis was likely or very likely in 2024, compared to 58 percent of Taiwanese experts. About three quarters of U.S. experts and two-thirds of Taiwanese experts said ongoing efforts to stabilize U.S.-China ties would not stave such a crisis.
A majority of both U.S. and Taiwanese experts said a quarantine of outlying Taiwanese islands was the “likeliest action if Beijing seeks to punish or coerce Taiwan.”
A combination of factors has experts anticipating some sort of escalation in 2024.
Taiwan once against went against China’s wishes with the election last week of Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate Lai Ching-te, who is skeptical of China’s ambitions toward the island. Most experts expected Beijing to change its approach in reaction to the election.
China has called Ching-te “dangerously separatist,” and characterized the election he won as a choice between peace and war. Following his election, communications between Ching-te and Beijing officials are non-existent.
Chen Ming-Chi, CEO at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, said there is a “temptation” for China to test Ching-te, “who does not have a background in military affairs.” He noted declarations of Taiwanese statehood from Ching-te’s party undermine Beijing’s promise of “inevitable reunification.”
A majority of the surveyed experts agreed that U.S. intervention is less likely as the severity of Chinese action decreases. Gunness speculated that “Beijing could perceive that a quarantine offers opportunities for the U.S. to deescalate, or for Taiwan to capitulate without either side resorting to military force.”
According to the report, experts “were not as confident of U.S. intervention in the event of a quarantine,” especially Taiwanese experts. There was more confidence that the U.S. would intervene militarily in the case of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
Lee Hsi-min, a previous admiral in the Republic of China armed forces and senior fellow at the 2049 Project, said that “from China’s point of view, quarantine can be used to prevent Taiwan from doing things China cannot accept.”
“However, quarantine cannot be used to compel Taiwan to do things it wants,” he said. Hsi-min said a blockade is more likely than a quarantine, adding that China would be willing to use “extensive bombardment” to apply pressure.
Ivan Kanapathy, the Freeman Chair in China Studies at CSIS, said the Israel-Hamas and Russia-Ukraine wars could also affect the U.S. approach to Taiwan, by disincentivizing more conflict. Kanapathy called experts’ anticipation of a coming crisis “surprising,” given Washington and Beijing’s “desire not to do things to provoke each other” on the global stage.
The CSIS report places Taiwan’s ability to resist a quarantine/blockade at between one and three months with no or very limited U.S. intervention.
“There are tradeoffs,” Kanapthy said of the U.S.’s potential intervention. “You have to be able to back it up with your defense budget.”
U.S. lawmakers are already chafing at the cost of America’s support for Ukraine and Israel, with President Biden’s supplemental foreign spending request hung up on demands from Republicans who want to prioritize immigration across the country’s southern border.
A majority of experts believe a crisis in the Taiwan strait is likely in 2024, with a Chinese blockade or “quarantine” of the island seen as the most likely scenario. That’s according to a new survey from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), which asked 87 leading U.S. and Taiwanese experts on…
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GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY SUMMIT RETURNS FOR ITS 5TH EDITION AT THE BRITISH PARLIAMENT – HOUSE OF LORDS, PALACE OF WESTMINSTER
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Theme: “People, Planet, and Profit in the Age of AI and Innovation”
London, United Kingdom — The Global Sustainability Summit (GSS) is officially back for its landmark 5th Edition, continuing its legacy as one of the leading international platforms driving sustainable development, climate action, ethical investment, innovation, and global collaboration.
Convened annually at the prestigious British Parliament, House of Lords, Palace of Westminster, by Ambassador Canon Chinenem Otto, the Summit has, over the last four years, successfully fostered international dialogue and partnerships that have contributed to the advancement of global sustainability goals, the establishment of sustainability-focused ministries, departments and policy structures across national and subnational governments, and the attraction of major investors into sustainable development projects, corporations and emerging economies.
This year’s summit, themed “People, Planet, and Profit in the Age of AI and Innovation,” will explore how emerging technologies, responsible leadership, sustainable finance, innovation, and global partnerships can shape a more inclusive, resilient and environmentally conscious future.
The 5th Edition promises to be the most impactful yet, bringing together world leaders, policymakers, diplomats, investors, academics, innovators, climate experts and youth leaders from across the globe to discuss actionable solutions toward achieving a sustainable and equitable future.
Among the distinguished speakers, delegates and honorees already lined up for the Summit are:
• His Excellency Mallam AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq — Executive Governor of Kwara State, Nigeria and Chairman of the Nigeria Governors’ Forum
• His Excellency Senator Prince Bassey Otu — Executive Governor of Cross River State, Nigeria
• Ambassador Patricia Espinosa Cantellano — Former Executive Secretary of UN Climate Change (UNFCCC) and Former Foreign Minister of Mexico
• Lord Marvin Rees, Baron Rees of Easton OBE — Member of the House of Lords, United Kingdom
• Hon. Neema K. Lugangira — Secretary-General of Women Political Leaders (WPL), Brussels and Former Member of Parliament
• Her Excellency Dr. Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah — President of the Republic of Namibia
• His Excellency Nangolo Mbumba — Former President of Namibia
• Former President of Tanzania
• Her Excellency Ambassador Professor Olufolake AbdulRazaq — First Lady of Kwara State, Nigeria and Chairperson of Nigeria Governors’ Spouses Forum
• Your Excellency Dr. Dikko Umar Radda, PhD, CON — Executive Governor of Katsina State and Chairman of the Northwest Governors Forum, Nigeria
• Hon. Sam Shafiishuna Nujoma — Governor of Khomas Region, Namibia
• H.E. Mr. Veiccoh Nghiwete — High Commissioner of the Republic of Namibia to the United Kingdom
• Her Excellency Ms. Macenje “Che Che” Mazoka — High Commissioner of Zambia to the United Kingdom
• Ms. Danielle Newman — Partner Lead, ICT, World Economic Forum
• Leanne Elliott Young — Co-founder, Institute of Digital Fashion & CommuneEast
• Ms. Chloe Russell — Producer & Presenter, Art, Science and Nature
• Professor Marie-Claire Cordonier Segger — University of Cambridge & University of Waterloo
• Dr. Alexandra R. Harrington — IUCN World Commission on Environmental Law (WCEL)
• Professor Payam Akhavan — Massey College, University of Toronto
• Mr. Mallai C. E. Sathya — President, Dravida Vetri Kazhagam and International Movement for Tamil Culture Asia
The Summit will feature high-level panel discussions, strategic investment conversations, sustainability awards, policy dialogues, innovation showcases, youth engagement sessions and international networking opportunities focused on climate resilience, ethical financing, food-water-energy sustainability, circular economy, artificial intelligence, diplomacy and sustainable development.
Speaking ahead of the Summit, Convener Ambassador Canon Chinenem Otto noted:
“As the world rapidly evolves through artificial intelligence and technological innovation, we must ensure that sustainability remains people-centered, environmentally responsible and economically inclusive. The Global Sustainability Summit continues to serve as a bridge connecting governments, institutions, innovators and investors to accelerate practical sustainability solutions globally. Our fifth edition is not only a celebration of progress made over the years, but also a renewed call for global collaboration and actionable impact toward achieving the Sustainable Development Goals and Net Zero ambitions.”
The Global Sustainability Summit continues to position itself as a catalyst for transformative partnerships and sustainable global progress, reinforcing the urgent need for collective action toward a more resilient and sustainable future.
More announcements regarding additional speakers, partners and summit activities will be unveiled in the coming weeks.
President Donald Trump says the United States might one day get rid of federal income tax because of money the government collects from tariffs on imported goods. Tariffs are extra taxes the U.S. puts on products that come from other countries.
What Trump Is Saying
Trump has said that tariff money could become so large that it might allow the government to cut income taxes “almost completely.” He has also talked about possibly phasing out income tax over the next few years if tariff money keeps going up.
How Taxes Work Now
Right now, the federal government gets much more money from income taxes than from tariffs. Income taxes bring in trillions of dollars each year, while tariffs bring in only a small part of that total. Because of this gap, experts say tariffs would need to grow by many times to replace income tax money.
Questions From Experts
Many economists and tax experts doubt that tariffs alone could pay for the whole federal budget. They warn that very high tariffs could make many imported goods more expensive for shoppers in the United States. This could hit lower- and middle‑income families hardest, because they spend a big share of their money on everyday items.
What Congress Must Do
The president can change some tariffs, but only Congress can change or end the federal income tax. That means any real plan to remove income tax would need new laws passed by both the House of Representatives and the Senate. So far, there is no detailed law or full budget plan on this idea.
What It Means Right Now
For now, Trump’s comments are a proposal, not a change in the law. People and businesses still have to pay federal income tax under the current rules. The debate over using tariffs instead of income taxes is likely to continue among lawmakers, experts, and voters.
Former President Donald Trump has signed an executive order directing federal agencies to declassify all government files related to Jeffrey Epstein, the disgraced financier whose death in 2019 continues to fuel controversy and speculation.
The order, signed Wednesday at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate, instructs the FBI, Department of Justice, and intelligence agencies to release documents detailing Epstein’s network, finances, and alleged connections to high-profile figures. Trump described the move as “a step toward transparency and public trust,” promising that no names would be shielded from scrutiny.
“This information belongs to the American people,” Trump said in a televised statement. “For too long, powerful interests have tried to bury the truth. That ends now.”
U.S. intelligence officials confirmed that preparations for the release are already underway. According to sources familiar with the process, the first batch of documents is expected to be made public within the next 30 days, with additional releases scheduled over several months.
Reactions poured in across the political spectrum. Supporters praised the decision as a bold act of accountability, while critics alleged it was politically motivated, timed to draw attention during a volatile election season. Civil rights advocates, meanwhile, emphasized caution, warning that some records could expose private victims or ongoing legal matters.
The Epstein case, which implicated figures in politics, business, and entertainment, remains one of the most talked-about scandals of the past decade. Epstein’s connections to influential individuals—including politicians, royals, and executives—have long sparked speculation about the extent of his operations and who may have been involved.
Former federal prosecutor Lauren Fields said the release could mark a turning point in public discourse surrounding government transparency. “Regardless of political stance, this declassification has the potential to reshape how Americans view power and accountability,” Fields noted.
Officials say redactions may still occur to protect sensitive intelligence or personal information, but the intent is a near-complete disclosure. For years, critics of the government’s handling of Epstein’s case have accused agencies of concealing evidence or shielding elites from exposure. Trump’s order promises to change that narrative.
As anticipation builds, journalists, legal analysts, and online commentators are preparing for what could be one of the most consequential information releases in recent history.
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