Connect with us

Business & Money

US economy unexpectedly accelerated to a 2.4% growth rate in April-June quarter despite Fed hikes Business News | The Hill

Published

on

US Economy Accelerates

The U.S. economy surprisingly accelerated to a 2.4% annual growth rate from April through June, showing continued resilience in the face of steadily higher interest rates resulting from the Federal Reserve’s 16-month-long fight to bring down inflation. “US Economy Accelerates” despite challenges, demonstrating robust performance.

Thursday’s estimate from the Commerce Department indicated that the gross domestic product — the economy’s total output of goods and services — picked up from the 2% growth rate in the January-March quarter. Last quarter’s expansion was well above the 1.5% annual rate that economists had forecast.

Driving last quarter’s growth was a burst of business investment. Excluding housing, business spending surged at a 7.7% annual rate, the fastest such pace since early 2022. Companies plowed more money into factories and equipment. Increased spending by state and local governments also helped fuel the economy’s expansion in the April-June quarter.

Consumer spending, the heart of the nation’s economy, was also solid last quarter, though it slowed to a 1.6% annual rate from a robust 4.2% pace in the first quarter of the year.

Advertisement

Investment in housing, though, fell, weakened by the weight of higher mortgage rates.

“This is a strong report, confirming that this economy continues to largely shrug off the Fed’s aggressive rate increases and tightening credit conditions,’’ said Olu Sonola, head of U.S. economics at Fitch Ratings. “The bottom line is that the U.S. economy is still growing above trend, and the Fed will be wondering if they need to do more to slow this economy.”

In fighting inflation, which last year hit a four-decade high, the Fed has raised its benchmark rate 11 times since March 2022, most recently on Wednesday. The resulting higher costs for a broad range of loans — from mortgages and credit cards to auto loans and business borrowing — have taken a toll on growth.

Still, they have yet to tip the United States into a widely forecast recession. Optimism has been growing that a recession isn’t coming after all, that the Fed can engineer a so-called “soft-landing” — slowing the economy enough to bring inflation down to its 2% annual target without wrecking an expansion of surprising durability.

Advertisement

This week, the International Monetary Fund upgraded its forecast for U.S. economic growth for all of 2023 to 1.8%. Though that would be down from 2.1% growth for 2022, it marked an increase from the 1.6% growth that the IMF had predicted for 2023 back in April.

At a news conference Wednesday after the Fed announced its latest quarter-point rate hike, Chair Jerome Powell revealed that the central bank’s staff economists no longer foresee a recession in the United States. In April, the minutes of the central bank’s March meeting had revealed that the Fed’s staff economists envisioned a “mild” recession later this year.

In his remarks, Powell noted that the economy has proved resilient despite the Fed’s rapid rate hikes. And he said he still thinks a soft landing remains possible.

By any measure, the American job market has shown itself to be remarkably strong. At 3.6% in June, the unemployment rate hovers just above a five-decade low. A surge in retirements after COVID-19 hit in early 2020 has contributed to a shortage of workers across the country, forcing many companies to raise wages to attract or keep staffers.

Advertisement

Higher pay and job security are giving Americans the confidence and financial wherewithal to keep shopping. Indeed, consumer spending, which drives about 70% of economic activity, rose at a 4.2% annual rate from January through March, the fastest quarterly pace in nearly two years. Americans have kept spending — crowding airplanes, traveling overseas and flocking to concerts and movie theaters.

And the Conference Board, a business research group, reported Tuesday that Americans this month are in their sunniest mood in two years, based on the board’s reading of consumer confidence.

Indeed, many consumers are finally enjoying some relief from spiking prices: Year-over-year inflation, which peaked at 9.1% in June 2022, has eased consistently ever since. Inflation-adjusted hourly pay rose 1.4% in June from a year earlier, the sharpest such gain since early 2021.

“Inflation is easing, moving in the right direction,” said Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics. ”In other words, the Fed is achieving what it wants without causing damage to the economy, so they don’t need to push too hard from this point on.”

Advertisement

Still, Farooqi suggested, the surprisingly healthy GDP report makes it somewhat more likely that the Fed will raise rates again because the economy appears to be “much stronger” than what the central bank would like to see. With stronger growth comes a greater likelihood of high inflation.

But Thursday’s GDP report contained some encouraging news for the Fed’s inflation fighters: One measure of prices — the personal consumption expenditures index — rose at a 2.6% annual rate last quarter, down from a 4.1% pace in the January-March quarter, to the lowest level since the end of 2020.

Though that is still above the Fed’s 2% inflation target, it amounts to “another welcome sign of disinflation,” said Mike Fratantoni, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association.

The Biden White House’s Council of Economic Advisers estimated Thursday that investment in factories and other manufacturing facilities added 0.4 percentage point of growth last quarter, the largest such proportion since 1981. President Joe Biden pushed the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS Act last year to encourage domestic manufacturing. Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JP Morgan Chase, agreed that much of last quarter’s uptick in business investment was “likely in response to recent federal incentives.’’

Advertisement

“This progress wasn’t inevitable or accidental,’’ the president said in a statement. “It is Bidenomics in action.’’

The risk remains that the weight of ever-higher interest rates will eventually slow borrowing so much — for homes, cars, renovations, business expansions and other costly expenses — as to pull the economy into recession.

Among the economy’s weakest links has been the housing market. In June, sales of previously occupied homes sank to their slowest pace since January. The problem is that a near-historic low number of homes for sale and higher mortgage rates kept many would-be homebuyers on the sidelines. Sales fell 19% compared with June 2022 and were down 23% through the first half of the year.

___

Advertisement

AP Writer Josh Boak contributed to this report.

​Business, AP Business WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. economy surprisingly accelerated to a 2.4% annual growth rate from April through June, showing continued resilience in the face of steadily higher interest rates resulting from the Federal Reserve’s 16-month-long fight to bring down inflation. Thursday’s estimate from the Commerce Department indicated that the gross domestic product — the economy’s…

Continue Reading
Advertisement
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Business

How Trump’s Tariffs Could Hit American Wallets

Published

on

As the debate over tariffs heats up ahead of the 2024 election, new analysis reveals that American consumers could face significant financial consequences if former President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs are enacted and maintained. According to a recent report highlighted by Forbes, the impact could be felt across households, businesses, and the broader U.S. economy.

The Household Cost: Up to $2,400 More Per Year

Research from Yale University’s Budget Lab, cited by Forbes, estimates that the average U.S. household could pay an additional $2,400 in 2025 if the new tariffs take effect and persist. This projection reflects the cumulative impact of all tariffs announced in Trump’s plan.

Price Hikes Across Everyday Goods

The tariffs are expected to drive up consumer prices by 1.8% in the near term. Some of the hardest-hit categories include:

  • Apparel: Prices could jump 37% in the short term (and 18% long-term).
  • Footwear: Up 39% short-term (18% long-term).
  • Metals: Up 43%.
  • Leather products: Up 39%.
  • Electrical equipment: Up 26%.
  • Motor vehicles, electronics, rubber, and plastic products: Up 11–18%.
  • Groceries: Items like vegetables, fruits, and nuts could rise up to 6%, with additional increases for coffee and orange juice due to specific tariffs on Brazilian imports.

A Historic Tariff Rate and Economic Impact

If fully implemented, the effective tariff rate on U.S. consumers could reach 18%, the highest level since 1934. The broader economic consequences are also notable:

  • GDP Reduction: The tariffs could reduce U.S. GDP by 0.4% annually, equating to about $110 billion per year.
  • Revenue vs. Losses: While tariffs are projected to generate $2.2 trillion in revenue over the next decade, this would be offset by $418 billion in negative economic impacts.

How Businesses Are Responding

A KPMG survey cited in the report found that 83% of business leaders expect to raise prices within six months of tariff implementation. More than half say their profit margins are already under pressure, suggesting that consumers will likely bear the brunt of these increased costs.

What This Means for Americans

The findings underscore the potential for substantial financial strain on American families and businesses if Trump’s proposed tariffs are enacted. With consumer prices set to rise and economic growth projected to slow, the debate over tariffs is likely to remain front and center in the months ahead.

For more in-depth economic analysis and updates, stay tuned to Bolanlemedia.com.

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Business & Money

Trump Announces 35% Tariff on Canadian Imports Starting August 1, 2025

Published

on

U.S. President Donald Trump has announced a sweeping 35% tariff on all Canadian imports, effective August 1, 2025. This move marks a significant escalation in trade tensions between the United States and Canada, two of the world’s closest economic partners. The measure is part of Trump’s broader strategy to address what he calls “unsustainable Trade Deficits” and protect American industries.

Details of the Tariff

  • Scope: The 35% tariff applies to virtually all Canadian exports to the United States, with no exemptions for goods that comply with the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement), which had previously provided certain protections.
  • Enforcement: Goods transshipped through third countries to avoid the tariff will still be subject to the 35% rate.
  • Timeline: The tariff takes effect on August 1, 2025.
  • Potential Adjustments: Trump has indicated that the rate could be increased if Canada retaliates with its own tariffs, or lowered if Canada addresses U.S. concerns, such as stopping fentanyl trafficking.

Justifications Cited by the Trump Administration

President Trump’s announcement cited several reasons for the new tariff:

  • Retaliatory Measures: Canada’s previous retaliatory tariffs against U.S. goods.
  • Trade Deficits: Concerns over the U.S. trade deficit with Canada, which Trump claims threatens national security.
  • Dairy Industry: Complaints about Canada’s high tariffs on U.S. dairy products, reportedly up to 400%.
  • Fentanyl Trafficking: Allegations that Canada has not done enough to prevent the flow of fentanyl into the U.S..

Economic and Political Impact

Economic Concerns

  • Business Reaction: A recent poll found that 84% of American business leaders are worried about the negative impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy’s global standing.
  • Supply Chains: The integrated North American supply chain, especially in the automotive sector, is expected to be severely affected. Major automakers have warned of significant disruptions and cost increases.
  • Tariff Trends: U.S. applied tariff rates have surged under Trump’s administration, reaching historic highs in early 2025. The new Canadian tariff could push average rates even higher after a brief reduction earlier in the year.

Diplomatic Repercussions

  • Canadian Response: Prime Minister Mark Carney, recently elected on an anti-Trump platform, is preparing retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods. Canada has previously imposed tariffs on $20 billion (CA$30 billion) worth of American products, with plans to expand further.
  • Breakdown in Negotiations: Diplomatic relations have deteriorated, especially after the U.S. ended trade talks following Canada’s implementation of a digital services tax in June 2025. Despite previous commitments at the G7 summit to seek compromise, the relationship remains tense.

Conclusion

The imposition of a 35% tariff on Canadian imports by the United States represents a major shift in North American trade relations. The move is expected to have wide-ranging economic and diplomatic consequences, with both countries bracing for further escalation and uncertainty in cross-border commerce.

Continue Reading

Business

Pros and Cons of the Big Beautiful Bill

Published

on

The “Big Beautiful Bill” (officially the One Big Beautiful Bill Act) is a sweeping tax and spending package passed in July 2025. It makes permanent many Trump-era tax cuts, introduces new tax breaks for working Americans, and enacts deep cuts to federal safety-net programs. The bill also increases spending on border security and defense, while rolling back clean energy incentives and tightening requirements for social programs.

Pros

1. Tax Relief for Middle and Working-Class Families

2. Support for Small Businesses and Economic Growth

  • Makes the small business deduction permanent, supporting Main Street businesses.
  • Expands expensing for investment in short-lived assets and domestic R&D, which is considered pro-growth.

3. Increased Spending on Security and Infrastructure

4. Simplification and Fairness in the Tax Code

  • Expands the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and raises marginal rates on individuals earning over $400,000.
  • Closes various deductions and loopholes, especially those benefiting private equity and multinational corporations.

Cons

1. Deep Cuts to Social Safety Net Programs

  • Cuts Medicaid by approximately $930 billion and imposes new work requirements, which could leave millions without health insurance.
  • Tightens eligibility and work requirements for SNAP (food assistance), potentially removing benefits from many low-income families.
  • Rolls back student loan forgiveness and repeals Biden-era subsidies.

2. Increases the Federal Deficit

  • The bill is projected to add $3.3–4 trillion to the federal deficit over 10 years.
  • Critics argue that the combination of tax cuts and increased spending is fiscally irresponsible.

3. Benefits Skewed Toward the Wealthy

  • The largest income gains go to affluent Americans, with top earners seeing significant after-tax increases.
  • Critics describe the bill as the largest upward transfer of wealth in recent U.S. history.

4. Rollback of Clean Energy and Climate Incentives

5. Potential Harm to Healthcare and Rural Hospitals

6. Public and Political Backlash

  • The bill is unpopular in public polls and is seen as a political risk for its supporters.
  • Critics warn it will widen the gap between rich and poor and reverse progress on alternative energy and healthcare.

Summary Table

ProsCons
Permanent middle-class tax cutsDeep Medicaid and SNAP cuts
No tax on tips/overtime for most workersMillions may lose health insurance
Doubled Child Tax CreditAdds $3.3–4T to deficit
Small business supportBenefits skewed to wealthy
Increased border/defense spendingClean energy incentives eliminated
Simplifies some tax provisionsThreatens rural hospitals
Public backlash, political risk

In summary:
The Big Beautiful Bill delivers significant tax relief and new benefits for many working and middle-class Americans, but it does so at the cost of deep cuts to social programs, a higher federal deficit, and reduced support for clean energy and healthcare. The bill is highly polarizing, with supporters touting its pro-growth and pro-family provisions, while critics warn of increased inequality and harm to vulnerable populations.

Continue Reading

Trending