Business

‘Too early for victory laps’: Fed inflation fight looms over Biden on December 12, 2023 at 9:04 pm Business News | The Hill

Published

2 years ago

December 12, 2023

The next chapter of the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation will stretch through the 2024 election, putting President Biden in a pinch as he campaigns on a yet-to-be-seen soft landing.

The central bank has walked a tightrope to cool the economy and bring down inflation without triggering a recession. The Fed began its battle with an aggressive series of rate hikes, then paused in September as inflation fell steadily over the past 18 months.

After its final meeting of the year concludes Wednesday, the Fed’s rate-setting committee will announce its next step in the fight against inflation after a year of remarkable progress.

While experts don’t expect the Fed to declare victory, they believe the bank is well on its way toward delivering a “soft landing” — a return to low inflation without a recession.

“The odds of a soft landing have certainly increased dramatically in recent months. There’s probably a better than 50-50 chance that we do get that very rare soft economic landing, but it’s too early for victory laps,” Greg McBride, chief financial analyst for Bankrate.com, told The Hill.

The U.S. economy is in a much better place than it was a year and a half ago, economists told The Hill, with inflation falling, strong economic growth and low unemployment.

The economy’s success came in the face of headwinds, including the spectacular collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank this spring, the resumption of student loan payments, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the war between Israel and Hamas.

“The U.S. economy is quite resilient. It has been the big story of this year,” Niladri Mukherjee, chief investment officer at TIAA Wealth Management, told The Hill.

Some economists argue the economy is already on track to see lower inflation without a recession, which was widely feared when the bank began hiking rates.

“In my opinion, the soft landing is in the bag,” Claudia Sahm, a former Fed economist and the founder of Sahm Consulting, told The Hill. She is best known as the creator of the “Sahm Rule,” an early warning recession indicator based on the three-month average national unemployment rate.

“We could sustain this labor market. The COVID disruptions, Ukraine disruption and inflation continue to work themselves out. That’s the path we’re on,” Sahm added. “That was not clear last year. Last year was really rough.”

Bidenomics and the 2024 presidential race

Inflation has fallen from its peak topping 9 percent in June 2022 to 3.1 percent in November, according to the latest consumer price index released Tuesday by the Labor Department. That’s still above the Fed’s 2 percent inflation target but within striking distance.

President Biden’s reelection campaign used last week’s jobs report, which showed higher-than-expected job gains, to make the case that he’s “cleaning up the economic disaster” left by his predecessor and presumed challenger in the 2024 race, former President Trump.

But it may be too soon to tell whether the economy is a winning message for Biden as the plane is still coming in for landing.

“This period of incredibly high inflation absolutely does not play well for Biden,” said Michelle Holder, an assistant economics professor at John Jay College.

While it looks like the U.S. economy is coming in for a soft landing, Americans remain concerned with high prices as they’re squeezed by higher borrowing costs. And even Democrats seem to have a hard time backing Biden’s economy.

A recent New York Times/Siena College poll of voters in six battleground states found 62 percent of Biden voters rated the economy “fair” or “poor.” Trump is leading Biden in five of those six battleground states, the poll found, though the hypothetical general election match-up is more than a year away.

While the economy is improving by many measures, many Americans are struggling. Those who enjoyed pandemic stimulus-padded safety nets are seeing those savings dwindle, and credit card, mortgage and auto payment delinquency rates have all risen as borrowing costs have ballooned.

“Sixty percent of U.S. households live paycheck to paycheck. The prices are 20 percent higher than they were pre-pandemic and for a lot of households, income hasn’t increased 20 percent,” McBride said.

“So buying power has been squeezed, budgets are tighter, savings has been eroded, credit card debt has been added, and that reality is weighing on millions of households,” he added.

Where the Fed goes from here

The Fed is widely expected to hold interest rates steady on Wednesday at a range of 5.25 percent to 5.5 percent, the range set by its most recent rate hike in July.

With rates at their highest level in more than two decades, Fed officials have been willing to sit back and watch the impact of their previous hikes before raising borrowing costs again.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has also warned the bank could hike rates again in 2024 if inflation shows signs of reigniting.

“My firm base case throughout all of this is the Fed is going to get 2 percent [come] hell or high water,” Sahm said, noting “the Fed’s only tool is fewer customers.”

Even so, the steady decline of inflation and rising pressure on low-income households is prompting calls for the Fed to consider cutting rates.

“As the inflation rate declines, the Fed’s not going to be able to keep rates at current levels indefinitely,” McBride says. Rates that stay high for too long risk tipping the U.S. economy and labor market into a recession.

While a recent estimate by UBS Investment Bank forecasts rate cuts as soon as March, the central bank will have to balance bringing interest rates down without tipping the economy into a recession.

Interest rate hikes target the demand side of the economy, dampening it by jacking up borrowing costs. But that doesn’t tell the full story.

“The misdiagnosis here was the assumption that inflation was largely demand, rather than supply, driven,” Moody’s Analytics Deputy Chief Economist Cristian deRitis told The Hill.

“Fed policy kept inflation from accelerating further by keeping demand in check, but most of the decline in inflation is attributable to improvements in the supply side of the economy.”

Mukherjee warned that if the Fed cuts interest rates too quickly, economic growth could reaccelerate and cause the Fed to reverse course and hike rates that the market is expecting to see cut.

“Everybody’s extrapolating too far up the path of no recession,” Mukherjee said. “That’s what makes it risky for investors.”

Holder said that, “The way to go is to be slow, steady and modest in order to mitigate these feedback effects with higher shelter costs and the very real feedback effect of you raise interest rates, you slow down the labor market, unemployment increases.”

A labor economist who studies women and people of color in the labor market, Holder noted Black workers in particular are experiencing historically low levels of unemployment.

“I do hope the Fed stays the course and continues along this path that has led us to be in this vein of a soft landing because I don’t want to see the gains that Black workers have made be reversed,” Holder said.

Despite a slew of high-profile layoffs, particularly in the technology sector, the national unemployment rate has remained below 4 percent for the longest stretch in decades, edging down to 3.7 percent in November.

“The biggest dynamic that is still at play is the Federal Reserve and the labor market. It’s literally been these are the two fronts which are fighting each other and we will at some point know which direction the fight is breaking,” Mukherjee said. “And you could argue that will have a big say in who wins the next year’s election as well.”

Whether the economy will tip the election in Biden’s favor, or whether Americans will even credit him with a soft landing should it materialize, remains to be seen.

“Whether or not I believe this is going to make or break Biden, or actually break Biden, in terms of his presidential bid, I’m not ready to say that,” Holder said. “I’m not ready to say that inflation is the straw that broke the camel’s back.”

Business, Economy, 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump, federal reserve, inflation, Interest rates, Jerome Powell, Joe Biden The next chapter of the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation will stretch through the 2024 election, putting President Biden in a pinch as he campaigns on a yet-to-be-seen soft landing. The central bank has walked a tightrope to cool the economy and bring down inflation without triggering a recession. The Fed began its battle with…

Business

How Trump’s Tariffs Could Hit American Wallets

Published

1 day ago

July 11, 2025

Bolanle Media Staff

As the debate over tariffs heats up ahead of the 2024 election, new analysis reveals that American consumers could face significant financial consequences if former President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs are enacted and maintained. According to a recent report highlighted by Forbes, the impact could be felt across households, businesses, and the broader U.S. economy.

The Household Cost: Up to $2,400 More Per Year

Research from Yale University’s Budget Lab, cited by Forbes, estimates that the average U.S. household could pay an additional $2,400 in 2025 if the new tariffs take effect and persist. This projection reflects the cumulative impact of all tariffs announced in Trump’s plan.

Price Hikes Across Everyday Goods

The tariffs are expected to drive up consumer prices by 1.8% in the near term. Some of the hardest-hit categories include:

Apparel: Prices could jump 37% in the short term (and 18% long-term).
Footwear: Up 39% short-term (18% long-term).
Metals: Up 43%.
Leather products: Up 39%.
Electrical equipment: Up 26%.
Motor vehicles, electronics, rubber, and plastic products: Up 11–18%.
Groceries: Items like vegetables, fruits, and nuts could rise up to 6%, with additional increases for coffee and orange juice due to specific tariffs on Brazilian imports.

A Historic Tariff Rate and Economic Impact

If fully implemented, the effective tariff rate on U.S. consumers could reach 18%, the highest level since 1934. The broader economic consequences are also notable:

GDP Reduction: The tariffs could reduce U.S. GDP by 0.4% annually, equating to about $110 billion per year.
Revenue vs. Losses: While tariffs are projected to generate $2.2 trillion in revenue over the next decade, this would be offset by $418 billion in negative economic impacts.

How Businesses Are Responding

A KPMG survey cited in the report found that 83% of business leaders expect to raise prices within six months of tariff implementation. More than half say their profit margins are already under pressure, suggesting that consumers will likely bear the brunt of these increased costs.

What This Means for Americans

The findings underscore the potential for substantial financial strain on American families and businesses if Trump’s proposed tariffs are enacted. With consumer prices set to rise and economic growth projected to slow, the debate over tariffs is likely to remain front and center in the months ahead.

For more in-depth economic analysis and updates, stay tuned to Bolanlemedia.com.

Business

U.S. Limits Nigerian Non-Immigrant Visas to Three-Month Validity

Published

3 days ago

July 9, 2025

Bolanle Media Staff

In July 2025, the United States implemented significant changes to its visa policy for Nigerian citizens, restricting most non-immigrant and non-diplomatic visas to a single entry and a maximum validity of three months. This marks a departure from previous policies that allowed for multiple entries and longer stays, and has important implications for travel, business, and diplomatic relations between the two countries.

Key Changes in U.S. Visa Policy for Nigerians

Single-Entry, Three-Month Limit: As of July 8, 2025, most non-immigrant visas issued to Nigerians are now valid for only one entry and up to three months.
No Retroactive Impact: Visas issued prior to this date remain valid under their original terms.
Reciprocity Principle: The U.S. cited alignment with Nigeria’s own visa policies for U.S. citizens as the basis for these changes.
Enhanced Security Screening: Applicants are required to make their social media accounts public for vetting, and are subject to increased scrutiny for any signs of hostility toward U.S. institutions.

Rationale Behind the Policy Shift

Security and Immigration Integrity: The U.S. government stated the changes are intended to safeguard the immigration system and meet global security standards.
Diplomatic Reciprocity: These restrictions mirror the limitations Nigeria imposes on U.S. travelers, emphasizing the principle of fairness in international visa agreements.
Potential for Further Action: The U.S. has indicated that additional travel restrictions could be introduced if Nigeria does not address certain diplomatic and security concerns.

Nigeria’s Updated Visa Policy

Nigeria Visa Policy 2025 (NVP 2025): Introduced in May 2025, this policy features a new e-Visa system for short visits and reorganizes visa categories:
- Short Visit Visas (e-Visa): For business or tourism, valid up to three months, non-renewable, processed digitally within 48 hours.
- Temporary Residence Visas: For employment or study, valid up to two years.
- Permanent Residence Visas: For investors, retirees, and highly skilled individuals.
Visa Exemptions: ECOWAS citizens and certain diplomatic passport holders remain exempt.
Reciprocal Restrictions: Most short-stay and business visas for U.S. citizens are single-entry and short-term, reflecting reciprocal treatment.

Impact on Travelers and Bilateral Relations

Nigerian Travelers: Face increased administrative requirements, higher costs, and reduced travel flexibility to the U.S.
U.S. Travelers to Nigeria: Encounter similar restrictions, with most visas limited to single entry and short duration.
Diplomatic Tensions: Nigerian officials have called for reconsideration of the U.S. policy, warning of negative effects on bilateral ties and people-to-people exchanges.

Conclusion

The U.S. decision to limit Nigerian non-immigrant visas to three months highlights the growing complexity and reciprocity in global visa regimes. Both countries are tightening their policies, citing security and fairness, which underscores the need for travelers and businesses to stay informed and adapt to evolving requirements.

Business

Nicki Minaj Demands $200 Million from Jay-Z in Explosive Twitter Rant

Published

3 days ago

July 9, 2025

Bolanle Media Staff

Nicki Minaj has once again set social media ablaze, this time targeting Jay-Z with a series of pointed tweets that allege he owes her an eye-popping $200 million. The outburst has reignited debates about artist compensation, industry transparency, and the ongoing power struggles within hip-hop’s elite circles.

The $200 Million Claim

In a string of tweets, Minaj directly addressed Jay-Z, writing, “Jay-Z, call me to settle the karmic debt. It’s only collecting more interest. You still in my top five though. Let’s get it.” She went further, warning, “Anyone still calling him Hov will answer to God for the blasphemy.” According to Minaj, the alleged debt stems from Jay-Z’s sale of Tidal, the music streaming platform he launched in 2015 with a group of high-profile artists—including Minaj herself, J. Cole, and Rihanna.

When Jay-Z sold Tidal in 2021, Minaj claims she was only offered $1 million, a figure she says falls dramatically short of what she believes she is owed based on her ownership stake and contributions. She has long voiced dissatisfaction with the payout, but this is the most public—and dramatic—demand to date.

Beyond the Money: Broader Grievances

Minaj’s Twitter storm wasn’t limited to financial complaints. She also:

Promised to start a college fund for her fans if she receives the money she claims is owed.
Accused blogs and online creators of ignoring her side of the story, especially when it involves Jay-Z.
Warned content creators about posting “hate or lies,” saying, “They won’t cover your legal fees… I hope it’s worth losing everything including your account.”

She expressed frustration that mainstream blogs and platforms don’t fully cover her statements, especially when they involve Jay-Z, and suggested that much of the coverage she receives is from less reputable sources.

Satirical Accusations and Industry Critique

Minaj’s tweets took a satirical turn as she jokingly blamed Jay-Z for a laundry list of cultural grievances, including:

The state of hip-hop, football, basketball, and touring
The decline of Instagram and Twitter
Even processed foods and artificial dyes in candy

She repeatedly declared, “The jig is up,” but clarified that her statements were “alleged and for entertainment purposes only.”

Political and Cultural Criticism

Minaj also criticized Jay-Z’s political involvement, questioning why he didn’t campaign more actively for Kamala Harris or respond to President Obama’s comments about Black men. While Jay-Z has a history of supporting Democratic campaigns, Minaj’s critique centered on more recent events and what she perceives as a lack of advocacy for the Black community.

The Super Bowl and Lil Wayne

Adding another layer to her grievances, Minaj voiced disappointment that Lil Wayne was not chosen to perform at the Super Bowl in New Orleans, a decision she attributes to Jay-Z’s influence in the entertainment industry.

Public and Industry Reaction

Despite the seriousness of her financial claim, many observers note that if Minaj truly believed Jay-Z owed her $200 million, legal action—not social media—would likely follow. As of now, there is no public record of a lawsuit or formal complaint.

Some fans and commentators see Minaj’s outburst as part of a larger pattern of airing industry grievances online, while others interpret it as a mix of personal frustration and performance art. Minaj herself emphasized that her tweets were “for entertainment purposes only.”

Conclusion

Nicki Minaj’s explosive Twitter rant against Jay-Z has once again placed the spotlight on issues of artist compensation and industry dynamics. Whether her claims will lead to further action or remain another dramatic chapter in hip-hop’s ongoing soap opera remains to be seen, but for now, the world is watching—and tweeting.