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Surprisingly strong economy shifts political calculations on July 28, 2023 at 9:00 am Business News | The Hill

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The U.S. economy is hitting a stride, growing at a 2.4-percent rate in the second quarter in a Strong Economy Alters Politics, a surprisingly strong showing that adds confidence to the idea that the nation may avoid a long-threatened recession.

The growing economy comes coupled with other good economic news: Inflation is slowing, and unemployment sits at just 3.6 percent.

Markets have noticed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up more than 4 percent over the last month and more than six percent this year, despite dropping on Thursday.

It’s all good news for the White House and President Biden, who have used the recent string of positive economic announcements to tout their stewardship over the economy as they head into an election next year.

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But it doesn’t mean the administration can breathe easy — over the economy or Biden’s political future.

Some economists think a recession is still possible, and Republicans, while more focused in recent weeks on probes into Hunter Biden’s legal difficulties, have not dropped their economic criticisms of the White House.

“It’s entertaining to watch the administration sit here and say, ‘oh everything’s great now,” Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) said Thursday.

“Yes, inflation has come down but the economy in no way is growing at the levels that it needs to be and we need to enact reasonable and responsible budget cuts going forward to right size our economy and get the country moving in the right direction,” added Lawler, who represents a swing district and is one of the more vulnerable House Republicans in next year’s election.

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The White House rebuked GOP lawmakers, pointing remarks from to Fox Business Channel’s Cheryl Casone, who said on Thursday: “There goes that recession talk, right?”

“Even Fox Business is welcoming today’s blockbuster economic growth numbers, the latest in a long line of proof points that Bidenomics is delivering for middle class families,” spokesperson Andrew Bates said in a memo. “That’s because this strong growth report is objectively good news for the American people, which elected officials should support regardless of their political party.”

The resilience of the economy has been a surprise for a number of reasons.

Market commentators for most of Biden’s term have been worried about a recession, and as the Federal Reserve launched a series of interest rate hikes in response to rising inflation, the fear was that a downturn would be hard to avoid.

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The Federal Reserve itself in March predicted a “mild recession,” before reversing its position on Wednesday after raising interest rates another quarter-percent.

“The staff now has a noticeable slowdown in growth starting later this year in the forecast, but given the resilience of the economy recently, they are no longer forecasting a recession,” Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday.

That resilience has taken several different forms but has been nowhere more noticeable than in the labor market. Unemployment has remained near historic lows even as the Fed has undertaken one of the fastest interest rate tightening cycles on record in response to prices that climbed as high as 9.1 percent annually last June.

Lower employment is usually associated with lower prices due to how much businesses have to pay workers and still turn a profit. But that relationship has been called into question during the recent inflation, as prices have been steadily falling since last June while unemployment has remained near record lows.

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The unusual nature of the post-pandemic inflation, driven in part by massive consumer savings during the lockdown era and supply chain shutdowns, was likely the primary reason. Price fluctuations occurred in different sectors of the economy at different times, and companies raked in record profits, choosing to keep prices high.

In making the case for its handling of the economy, the Biden administration on Thursday pointed to investments it made when Democrats held majorities in Congress in 2021 and 2022. Those investments were mostly in the Inflation Reduction Act, a bipartisan transportation and infrastructure bill and a major semiconductor bill.

This has led to investments north of $190 billion as of May, much of it in green tech and industry, that is expected to lead to a factory construction boom.

The White House Council of Economic Advisers touted the investment in plants and equipment in a blog post on Thursday, noting its contribution to the beefy GDP number.

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“Nonresidential private fixed investment accelerated, contributing 1 percentage point to [second quarter] growth. Private construction of manufacturing facilities alone, such as factories, contributed about 0.4 percentage point, this category’s largest growth contribution since 1981,” economists with the CEA wrote.

Some key factors do leave a number of economists wary of another ding on the economy later this year. Millions will see an end to the three-year pause in student loan payments later this year, which could put a crunch on consumer spending.

Interest rate hikes have also weighed heavily on the housing market for more than a year, driving high mortgage rates and dampening demand.

Demand is beginning to rise again, but so are prices with would-be sellers reluctant to give up their low mortgage rates and put their homes on the market.

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Powell said on Wednesday that the housing market has “a ways to go” before it reaches a balance and prices cool.

The news of economic growth comes just weeks after the White House launched its “Bideonomics” messaging, which was met with speculation at the time about whether they were taking a victory lap too soon.

Throughout Biden’s presidency, Republicans have hammered him for high inflation, and they sought to use it against Democrats in the 2022 midterms. They are expected to focus on the economy, along with their investigations into the Biden family, again in 2024.

President Biden celebrated that the GDP number on Thursday, arguing that the economic progress “wasn’t inevitable or accidental,” but it was due to Bidenomics — a message voters can expect to keep hearing as Biden and officials traverse the country to tout their work on the economy.

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“[H]ard-working Americans are seeing the results: Our unemployment rate remains near record lows, inflation has fallen by two thirds, real wages are higher than they were before the pandemic, and we’ve seen more than half a trillion dollars in private sector investment commitments in clean energy and manufacturing,” he said.

​Administration, Business, News, Bidenomics, GDP, inflation, Joe Biden, Mike Lawler, unemployment The U.S. economy is hitting a stride, growing at a 2.4-percent rate in the second quarter in a surprisingly strong showing that adds confidence to the idea that the nation may avoid a long-threatened recession. The growing economy comes coupled with other good economic news: Inflation is slowing, and unemployment sits at just 3.6 percent.
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Business & Money

How the GENIUS Act Will Transform Your Money and Payments

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The passage of the GENIUS Act in 2025 marks a revolutionary step in how money and payments will work in the United States. It is the first comprehensive federal law specifically regulating stablecoins—digital currencies pegged to traditional money like the U.S. dollar. This new legislation is poised to reshape your experience with money, making payments faster, more transparent, and potentially cheaper, while introducing clear consumer protections and regulatory standards for digital currencies.

What is the GENIUS Act?

The GENIUS Act stands for Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins. It establishes a clear legal framework for stablecoins, which are designed to hold a steady value (usually $1) unlike the more volatile cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. Stablecoins are increasingly used for routine transactions such as paying bills, sending remittances, or transferring money across borders.

Under the new law:

  • Only authorized issuers like banks, credit unions, and federally approved non-bank financial institutions can issue stablecoins.
  • Issuers must maintain 100% reserves—meaning for every digital coin issued, there must be a corresponding $1 held in cash, U.S. Treasury securities, or other approved liquid assets.
  • Issuers are required to undergo regular audits and publish disclosures about their reserves.
  • If an issuer fails or goes bankrupt, holders of stablecoins get priority in getting their money back ahead of other creditors.

This stringent reserve and audit requirement provides much-needed transparency and trust for consumers.

Key Consumer Benefits and Protections

  1. Faster, Cheaper Payments
    Integrating stablecoins into mainstream banking systems can speed up transactions dramatically. You could receive paychecks instantly, send money overseas with minimal fees, and settle payments without the delays typical of current banking transfers.
  2. Clear Regulation and Oversight
    Before the GENIUS Act, the regulatory environment was fragmented and uncertain. Now, stablecoins have a federal framework that coordinates oversight between federal and state regulators to prevent fraud, money laundering, and abuses.
  3. Privacy and Government Limits
    The law bans the Federal Reserve from creating retail Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs)—digital dollars controlled directly by the government—addressing privacy concerns about surveillance of everyday spending.
  4. Financial Stability and Consumer Priority
    The Act gives stablecoin holders priority status in bankruptcy cases, meaning your digital dollars are protected better than traditional bank deposits or bondholder claims in insolvencies.

What This Means for You

The GENIUS Act could significantly change your daily financial life:

  • You may start to see stablecoins integrated within banking apps, payroll systems, and payment services.
  • Money transfers could become almost instantaneous and cost less, especially across borders.
  • More businesses and financial institutions might accept digital dollars pegged to the U.S. dollar.
  • Consumer protections could increase, with more audit oversight and clarity about your rights as a stablecoin holder.

However, challenges remain. Regulators have up to 18 months to finalize detailed rules on audits, reserve management, fraud prevention, and compliance. The evolving regulations will determine how safe and seamless digital currency payments become.

A Global Race to Modernize Money

While the U.S. passed the GENIUS Act to catch up, other countries like China and members of the European Union are already piloting their own digital currencies. The legislation positions the U.S. to retain the dollar’s dominant role globally by tying digital currencies directly to U.S. dollars and Treasury securities, potentially boosting demand for American debt and keeping borrowing costs stable.

The Future of Money and Payments

The GENIUS Act opens the door to a more modern, efficient financial system where digital dollars coexist with traditional money, offering consumers faster options and better protections. While adoption will take time, this law lays the groundwork for a future where your payments, savings, and everyday money management are fundamentally transformed by technology—making financial services more accessible, transparent, and resilient.

Whether you choose to use stablecoins actively or not, the changes unfolding will reach into many aspects of how money moves in our economy. Staying informed about this evolving landscape will help you navigate the future of payments confidently.

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Paramount Seals $7.7B Deal for Exclusive UFC Streaming Rights

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Paramount Global has secured the exclusive U.S. rights to the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) in a groundbreaking deal worth $7.7 billion over seven years, beginning in 2026. This agreement marks a major shift in UFC’s distribution, moving away from the traditional pay-per-view model currently offered by ESPN to a new streaming-focused strategy centered on Paramount’s platform, Paramount+. All 43 annual UFC live events, including 13 major numbered events and 30 Fight Nights, will be available exclusively on Paramount+ at no additional cost to subscribers, with select marquee events also simulcast on the CBS broadcast network.

The deal comes just days after Paramount completed its merger with Skydance Media and represents the company’s first major sports rights acquisition under its new leadership. Paramount CEO David Ellison emphasized the uniqueness of partnering exclusively with a global sports powerhouse like UFC, highlighting the move as a key part of Paramount’s strategy to enhance viewer engagement and grow its streaming subscriber base.

For UFC, the deal ends the pay-per-view model common in the sport, greatly increasing accessibility for fans and potentially expanding the sport’s U.S. audience. The contract also doubles the yearly average payment compared to the $550 million ESPN currently pays, reflecting the growing value and popularity of UFC content.

TKO Group Holdings, UFC’s parent company, sees this agreement as a milestone in their decade-long growth, with TKO’s CEO Ari Emanuel affirming trust in Paramount’s vision to leverage technology to improve storytelling and the viewing experience.

This landmark deal reflects the rapidly evolving sports media landscape, with streaming services increasingly vying for premium content to attract and retain subscribers. Paramount’s move to bring UFC to its platform exclusively is a strong statement of commitment to live sports as a vital driver of engagement in the streaming age.

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Key Points:

  • Paramount secured UFC U.S. media rights for $7.7 billion over 7 years, starting 2026.
  • UFC events will be exclusively streamed on Paramount+, ending ESPN’s pay-per-view model.
  • The deal includes 13 major numbered events and 30 Fight Nights annually.
  • Some marquee events will also air on CBS broadcast TV.
  • The yearly payment doubles ESPN’s previous contract.
  • The deal was announced shortly after Paramount’s merger with Skydance.
  • Paramount aims to use UFC to boost Paramount+ subscriber growth and engagement.
  • TKO Group (UFC parent company) supports the deal and foresees enhanced tech-enabled storytelling.
  • Streaming services continue to disrupt traditional sports broadcasting models.
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Business

What Slower Job Growth and Rising Tariffs Mean for American Workers

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The July jobs report delivered a sobering message: the U.S. labor market is slowing sharply just as higher tariffs are starting to take effect. Employers added only 73,000 jobs last month, far below forecasts that had anticipated at least 100,000 new positions. This figure, coupled with a slight rise in unemployment to 4.2%, reflects a tangible shift in labor market momentum, with analysts noting a pronounced downtrend over recent months.

Not only was July weak, but downward revisions to May and June show that those months were even worse than first reported. Payroll growth has averaged just 35,000 jobs a month during the past quarter—the slowest expansion since the pandemic. Sectors hit hardest include professional services, manufacturing, and government, while job gains concentrated in areas like health care and retail aren’t easily accessible to displaced workers without specialized skills.

So, what roles are tariffs playing in this slowdown? President Trump’s wide-ranging tariffs continue to raise costs for both businesses and consumers. The Budget Lab at Yale estimates all 2025 U.S. tariffs, paired with retaliation from trading partners, will lower real GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points this year and next—and lift unemployment by 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points, translating to nearly 500,000 fewer jobs by the end of 2025. The price effects are direct: Yale’s analysis projects a 1.8% short-run boost in consumer prices, costing households an average of $2,400 annually if companies pass cost increases along. J.P. Morgan has echoed these warnings, highlighting how tariffs—especially on auto imports—will lift prices and act as a drag on overall GDP growth.

For American workers, these combined forces—sluggish job creation and pricier goods—mean a tough stretch ahead. Many are taking longer to find new employment, and the willingness to quit and switch jobs has declined as available opportunities dry up. Meanwhile, many job gains are in sectors requiring skills not easily acquired by laid-off workers, deepening a growing mismatch in the labor market.

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Analysts caution that the combined drag from slow hiring and rising tariffs could put consumer spending—long a driver of U.S. economic health—at risk. If this weak spell persists, further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts may be on the table.

In short, slower job growth and higher tariffs are squeezing American workers from both sides: jobs are harder to find, and day-to-day expenses are rising. While the economy remains resilient for now, the risks of further slowdown, or even recession, loom if these trends deepen through the end of 2025.

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