Business

Top 5 misconceptions about the economy in 2023 on December 28, 2023 at 11:15 am Business News | The Hill

Published

1 year ago

December 28, 2023

2023 was a year in which many experts got a lot of things wrong about the economy.

From mistaken forecasts about an impending recession to errors about falling prices and why they had risen in the first place, 2023 was a year marked by economic confusion.

Even the Federal Reserve got disoriented, predicting an economic downturn at the beginning of the year and then yanking that prediction over the summer.

This waffling peeved some major players in the financial industry, including JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, who called the Fed out for providing unreliable guidance and being “100 percent dead wrong.”

“Central banks 18 months ago were 100 percent dead wrong. Maybe there should be humility about financial forecasting,” he said during a panel event in Saudi Arabia in October.

Here’s a look back at some of the biggest misconceptions about the economy of 2023.

Rising interest rates are sure to cause a recession

There was virtual certainty among economists at the end of last year that 2023 would see a recession. The debate was whether that recession would be short-lived and relatively superficial or long and serious, entailing a major spike in unemployment.

“The recession we have now been anticipating for nine months draws nearer,” Deutsche Bank analysts Peter Hooper and David Folkerts-Landau wrote in November of last year. “Our expectation for a recession in the US by mid-2023 has strengthened.”

That incorrect forecasting was based on the assumption that rising interest rates would directly slow the economy, tanking markets and causing workers to be fired.

“The economic downturns along with the aggressive monetary tightening and geopolitical and commodity shocks that induce them will be temporarily painful in financial and emerging markets. We see major stock markets plunging 25 percent from levels somewhat above today’s when the US recession hits, but then recovering fully by year-end 2023, assuming the recession lasts only several quarters,” Folkerts-Landau and Hooper wrote.

But the Fed’s program of tightening led neither to mass unemployment nor to a stock market dive. On the contrary, gross domestic product surged to a 4.9-percent quarterly increase during the third quarter.

The most the Dow Jones Industrial Average of major US stocks lost from its November 2022, level was about 7 percent in March of this year. The Dow has since risen 9.5 percent above that level, setting several new records this month, and unemployment has remained below 4 percent.

Unemployment needs to go up for inflation to go down

Economists have long correlated inflation and unemployment in part because employment costs are the major portion of overhead paid by companies. In the third quarter of this year, employee compensation was about 58 percent of real prices, input costs were about 26 percent, and profits were about 16 percent.

To stop rising prices, many economists believed the Fed needed to put the squeeze on workers’ paychecks with higher interest rates and then watch consumer demand and overhead costs fall and prices along with them. Or so the conventional thinking went.

“Persistent levels of inflation suggest the need for reduced economic activity to cool inflation to 2 percent … This would spark job losses, which we do expect to see based on the Fed’s forecasts,” Michael Weisz, president of investment firm Yieldstreet, wrote in an analysis at the end of last year.

But 2023 unbuckled the correlation between unemployment and inflation.

Headline inflation as measured in the consumer price index (CPI) fell from a 6.3-percent annual increase in January off a high last year of nearly 9 percent to just 3.1 percent in November.

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, a different measure of inflation preferred by the Fed, fell from a 5.5-percent annual increase in January to just 2.6 percent in November – close to the the Fed’s 2-percent target.

The sharp drop in inflation came as the jobless rate barely moved.. Since inflation hit its 9-percent peak last June, unemployment has stayed between 3.4 and 3.9 percent — a far cry from the ranges of 6, 7 and even 10 percent predicted last summer.

Wages aren’t rising for the lowest-paid workers

Amid so much concern over the magnitude and trajectory of inflation, average hourly earnings for all US workers have actually kept pace with rising prices since the pandemic started in March 2020.

In fact, earnings have risen 19.4 percent since February 2020, slightly outpacing the increase in the CPI of 18.8 percent over the same period. Lower-wage workers have seen a greater share of these gains, contributing to a shrinking of income inequality in the US.

For production and nonsupervisory workers, who account for the majority of the U.S. workforce, their wages have increased 21.9 percent since just before the pandemic, more than 3 percentage points higher than the increase in the CPI.

Hospitality and leisure industry staff, who are some of the lowest paid people in the economy, have seen their wages rise 27 percent over the same period.

“The pandemic … [reduced] employer market power and [spurred] rapid relative wage growth among young noncollege workers who disproportionately moved from lower-paying to higher-paying and potentially more-productive jobs,” researchers from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the University of Massachusetts Amherst found earlier this year.

Rising markets, low unemployment will make people feel good

Despite solid economic performance data and a lot of salesmanship from the Biden administration, Americans have still been gloomy about the economy — a disconnect lamented and puzzled over by many financial commentators.

A December poll from Bankrate found that most Americans think the economy is currently experiencing a downturn, majorities those earning under $50,000 annually and those making more than $100,000 a year saying they feel like the U.S. economy is in a recession.

This gloom has translated into poor public opinion polling for President Biden. A November poll from Gallup found that just 32 percent of Americans approved of his handling of the economy.

But sentiment could be turning around in a major way. The latest Michigan Survey of Consumer Sentiment found a major brightening of the economic mood across various categories, reversing a fourth-month downward trend.

“These trends are rooted in substantial improvements in how consumers view the trajectory of inflation,” University of Michigan pollsters wrote. “All five index components rose this month, which has only occurred in 10 percent of readings since 1978. Expected business conditions surged over 25 percent for both the short and long run.”

Inflation had a single, clear-cut origin

Democrats and liberal economists have argued that inflation during the past year was caused primarily by supply-side disruptions while Republicans and conservative economists have blamed inflation on higher demand, boosted by trillions of dollars in pandemic stimulus.

Other economists have said the blame should fall mostly with corporations who took the opportunity of consumers’ being flush with cash to raise their prices and boost their profit margins.

The Ukraine war’s effect on energy prices and further variants of the coronavirus that extended the pandemic in 2021 were also fingered as culprits.

In fact, all of these factors contributed to varying degrees to the inflation that took off internationally starting in 2021 and lasted into this year. Holding up any single cause as the lone perpetrator ignores the dynamics between governments and the private sector that underlie the economy and international price system.

“Inflation eases at different rates across countries, due to their economic structures,” United Nations economists wrote in their 2023 trade and development report.

“As the cost of key inputs accelerates, several circumstances allow firms to gain higher profits by setting their prices following the general increasing trend, even if the goods were produced when inputs were cheaper,” they wrote. “Monetary policy is not to be used as a sole policy tool to alleviate inflationary pressures. With supply-side problems still unaddressed, a policy mix is needed to attain financial sustainability.”

Business, Economy, News, federal reserve, Federal reserve rate hikes, inflation, Interest rates, prices, Recession, Stock Market, unemployment, Wages 2023 was a year in which many experts got a lot of things wrong about the economy. From mistaken forecasts about an impending recession to errors about falling prices and why they had risen in the first place, 2023 was a year marked by economic confusion. Even the Federal Reserve got disoriented, predicting an economic…

Business

The Last of Us” Season 2: Cast and Creators Share Insights at SXSW

Published

6 days ago

March 9, 2025

Bolanle Media Staff

The cast and creators of the highly anticipated second season of “The Last of Us” gathered at SXSW to discuss the upcoming season. The panel featured cast members Pedro Pascal (Joel), Bella Ramsey (Ellie), Gabriel Luna (Tommy), Kaitlyn Dever (Abby), Isabela Merced (Dina), and Young Mazino (Jesse), along with co-creators Neil Druckmann and Craig Mazin.

Navigating Expectations and Surprising Fans

With the immense success of season one, Druckmann and Mazin acknowledged the pressure to deliver a worthy follow-up. Mazin emphasized their approach to cater to both fans of the game and newcomers to the series. “We try and think about the people who have played the game and make sure that we keep them on their toes and a little bit surprised,” Mazin stated. Druckmann highlighted the emotional weight of adapting “The Last of Us Part II,” emphasizing the dedication of the entire production team to doing justice to the source material.

A Glimpse into Season 2

Attendees were treated to a trailer for season two, offering a glimpse into the evolving relationship between Joel and Ellie five years after the events of the first season. Ramsey described the changed dynamic, hinting at a rift between the characters. Pascal added that their relationship is in “a different place” and that it is “fucking heartbreaking”.

Big Ideas: Tribalism, Love, and Loss

The creators delved into the central themes of season two, including tribalism, the destructive nature of love, and the consequences of loss. Druckmann explained that the season explores the complexities of community and the dehumanization that can occur when groups clash. Mazin emphasized the escalation of these themes, highlighting the potential for isolation and the lengths characters will go to protect their loved ones.

New and Expanded Characters

The panel also touched on new characters and expanded roles in season two. Gabriel Luna discussed Tommy’s evolution into a father, emphasizing how it solidifies his purpose and strengthens his commitment to protecting his family and community. The introduction of new characters like Gail, played by Catherine O’Hara, and the expansion of existing characters like Isaac, played by Jeffrey Wright, promise to add depth and nuance to the narrative. Additionally, the inclusion of Joe Pantoliano as Eugene, a character mentioned but not seen in the game, offers a rewarding experience for longtime fans.

Music as a Binding Force

Music continues to play a significant role in “The Last of Us,” particularly in the relationship between Joel and Ellie. Ramsey shared that music serves as a bonding experience for the characters, mirroring the connection between the actors on set. The guitar, a symbol of Joel’s promise to teach Ellie, takes on a more prominent role in season two.

Diving into the Game

The actors discussed their individual approaches to engaging with the source material. Kaitlyn Dever shared her experience playing the game with her father, while Young Mazino admitted to playing the second game up to a certain point.

How to Find More Free Events

SXSW Official Schedule: Use the SXSW website to filter for free events.
Eventbrite: Browse listings for unofficial SXSW events, many of which are free or low-cost.

Whether you’re a badge holder or not, SXSW 2025 offers something for everyone. From delicious food to live music and interactive experiences, there’s no shortage of fun to be had without spending a fortune. So, grab your friends and enjoy the best of Austin without a badge!

Bolanle Media covers a wide range of topics, including film, technology, and culture. Our team creates easy-to-understand articles and news pieces that keep readers informed about the latest trends and events. If you’re looking for press coverage or want to share your story with a wider audience, we’d love to hear from you! Contact us today to discuss how we can help bring your news to life

Business

No Badge? No Problem: Free SXSW Events

Published

6 days ago

March 9, 2025

Bolanle Media Staff

SXSW, one of the world’s most vibrant festivals, is underway in Austin, Texas, from March 7 to 15, 2025. While official badges can be pricey, there are plenty of free events and activities that allow everyone to join in on the fun without breaking the bank. Here’s a guide to some of the best free events at SXSW 2025:

Free Food and Drinks

Argentinian Barbecue at Tech N’ Fest
- Enjoy a fusion of Argentinian and Texas barbecue, along with complimentary wine and beer, at Buenos Cafe on March 7.

Love is Blind at Lucille
- Celebrate the fifth anniversary of Netflix’s “Love is Blind” with free coffee and cocktails at Lucille on Rainey Street.
Free Pastries and Non-Alcoholic Beer
- Handsome’s and Helium Mobile are hosting a gathering with free pastries and non-alcoholic beer, featuring DJ Jah Karma.
Mionetto Salone
- Experience Italian culture with free spritzes and Prosecco at the Mex-Ar Museum.

Interactive Experiences

Whataburger’s Museum of Art
- Explore hundreds of pieces of fan art and interactive features at Wanderlust Wine Co. on March 8-9.
Barbie Birthday Cake Mochi
- Enjoy free mochi ice cream at the SX Registrant booth from March 7 to 12.
Artisan Mercado@SXSW
- Discover local artisans and their wares at 419 Congress Ave. on March 7..

Music and Entertainment

Rolling Stone’s Future of Music Showcase
- Catch live music performances at ACL Live from March 11 to 14.

Taiwan Beats Day Party
- Enjoy Taiwanese hip-hop performances and cuisine at Seven on East 7th Street.
Something To Feel X SXSW Rnb Party
- Dance the night away at 612 W 4th St on March 7.

Networking and Community Events

K-Content Night 2025 @ SXSW
- Enjoy free dinner and drinks at Parlor & Yard on March 8.
SXSW Creator & Publisher Happy Hour
- Network with industry leaders at Chisos Boot Company on March 8.

How to Find More Free Events

SXSW Official Schedule: Use the SXSW website to filter for free events.
Eventbrite: Browse listings for unofficial SXSW events, many of which are free or low-cost.

Business

HRM Queen Shanta Lana Hereford Delivers Powerful Speech on Global Peace

Published

3 weeks ago

February 20, 2025

Bolanle Media Staff

New Delhi, India – February 16, 2025 – Her Royal Majesty Queen Shanta Lana Hereford, a distinguished global leader and advocate for peace and economic empowerment, was a special
guest speaker at an international event hosted by the EurAsia Afro Chamber of Commerce. The
hybrid event, aired live from New Delhi, India, gathered influential leaders, policymakers, and business executives from around the world to discuss global cooperation, economic diplomacy, and sustainable peace.

Queen Shanta delivered a compelling speech titled “Creating a Framework for a Global Peace Charter,” emphasizing the need for a justice-centered, faith-driven approach to global peace. She outlined a transformative vision, calling for governments, businesses, and faith leaders to unite to draft policies integrating equity, economic accountability, and environmental stewardship into global governance.

“The pursuit of peace is not just the absence of war; it is the presence of justice, dignity, and
opportunity for all, ” Queen Shanta stated. “We must move beyond just talking and establish
actionable frameworks that empower nations and communities to achieve lasting prosperity and peace.”

The EurAsia Afro Chamber of Commerce, under the leadership of its founder and chairman, Dr. Rohit Gupta, is dedicated to fostering economic and cultural collaboration between Africa, Asia, and Europe. The organization aims to create a strong, interconnected business network
bridging these regions, facilitating pathways for economic prosperity and diplomatic relations.
As a prolific leader within the African American diaspora and a global advocate for its
advancement, HRM Queen Shanta Lana Hereford is actively exploring opportunities for trade
and commerce between Africa, Asia, Europe, and other international communities.

Through her affiliations with organizations such as The African Diaspora Collective, The Atlanta Black Chambers, The Black Achievement Fund, The National Business League, The 10K Project, and many others, she is championing economic initiatives that build sustainable supply chains and foster strategic partnerships.

Her mission is to create economic opportunities for Black entrepreneurs and business leaders in America, who have historically been excluded from global trade discussions. By forging these international connections, Queen Hereford is working to ensure that Black communities in the U.S. not only have a seat at the table but play a key role in shaping the future of international commerce, economic empowerment, and global policy.

The event featured several other distinguished guests, including:
● Dr. Rohit Gupta: Founder and Chairman of the EurAsia Afro Chamber of Commerce,
Dr. Gupta has been instrumental in promoting cross-continental business relationships
and trade.
● H.E. Bishop Dr. Samsher Khan: Founder of the BSK Prayer Tower and IRKT, Bishop
Dr. Khan serves as a Peace Ambassador for the International Human Rights
Commission (IHRC) and holds the position of Asia’s Social Media Editor. He is dedicated
to promoting peace and spiritual well-being across communities.
● Madam Sadhvi Pragya Bharti: Sadhvi Pragya Bharti is a spiritual leader, humanitarian,
and national media panelist known for her advocacy of social and educational reforms
rooted in spirituality and justice.

The event underscored the importance of strategic economic partnerships as a tool for
peacebuilding, aligning with Queen Hereford’s global mission of self-determination and
economic sovereignty for Black and Indigenous communities worldwide.

As part of her continued advocacy, Queen Hereford urged global stakeholders to collaborate on
drafting a Global Peace Charter, organizing annual Global Peace Assemblies, and
implementing economic policies that uplift marginalized communities.

This event marks a significant milestone in international diplomacy, reinforcing the role of
economic and cultural cooperation in shaping a peaceful and prosperous future for all.

For media inquiries, interviews, or further information, please contact:
H.E. Roselyn Omaka
National Press Secretary, Nation of Cherut
Email: nps@nationofcherut.org
Phone: 281.301.5535