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The Memo: Could a Trump holdover save the Biden presidency? on December 15, 2023 at 10:30 am Business News | The Hill

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A key holdover from the Trump presidency could give President Biden a huge boost as he seeks reelection.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell looks to be on the cusp of pulling off a “soft landing” of the economy, after inflation roared to a four-decade high last year.

The Fed’s series of interest rate increases, which began in March 2022, have helped pull inflation down to just 3.1 percent from a high of 9.1 percent. But they have done so without throwing the economy into recession — at least so far.

Powell cautioned on Wednesday that it was “far too early to declare victory” in the battle against inflation. The annualized inflation rate is still higher than the Fed’s target of 2 percent. 

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But the Fed’s projections now assume three interest rate cuts in 2024. Powell himself told a news conference that the central bank was keenly aware of the risk that “we would hang on too long” without lowering rates.

Those comments came as the Fed held interest rates steady — a decision that helped propel the Dow Jones Industrial Average to its first ever close above 37,000.

Rate cuts next year would make homes more affordable, ease the purchase of other big-ticket items like cars, and make credit card debt less burdensome — all factors that could boost public sentiment on the economy and help the president.

So far, a strong jobs record for Biden has not been enough to overcome public pain about rising prices. An Economist/YouGov poll released Wednesday showed just 39 percent of Americans approve of Biden’s performance on the economy while 52 percent disapproved. 

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Democrats and Republicans fell along predictable lines on that question, but independent voters broke almost 2-to-1 against Biden on the economy, with 57 percent disapproving and just 30 percent approving. 

Those numbers are a heavy millstone around the president’s chances of winning a second term. 

But a soft landing could change everything.

Such a scenario “would be a very good thing for the president,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics. “Markets will be up, mortgage rates will be down, housing affordability will improve. So it is all good news.”

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Zandi emphasized this outcome was not guaranteed but that if it happened, “it should help the president make the case that the economy is in a good spot.”

Other observers who are broadly sympathetic to Biden argue that Americans could finally be about to shift from their feelings of malaise about the economy and embrace a more optimistic attitude. 

“A year ago economists thought there was a 100 percent chance of a recession and now the Fed is signaling we are going to have three rate cuts, possibly next year, and that’s on the back of a strong GDP report and strong employment numbers,” said Brendan Duke, the senior director for economic policy at the liberal Center for American Progress.

“When it comes to how Americans feel about the economy, these rate cuts have been sort of the missing piece,” Duke added. “They are going to unlock a rising stock market and lower mortgage rates.”

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Conservative-leaning experts, however, see the situation quite differently.

EJ Antoni, public finance economist with the conservative Heritage Foundation, contended that Biden’s broad economic record was “poor” at best and that there was little chance that the Fed could pull off a genuine soft landing.

Instead, Antoni argued that rate cuts next year would likely be premature and risk a rerun of the grim economic conditions of the late 1970s and early 1980s when inflation was rampant and persistent.

“There is really no way for the Fed to engineer a soft landing,” Antoni said. “They’ve never done it before, and they are not going to do it this time either.”

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Antoni’s argument, at its core, is that the prudent economic course would be to leave rates elevated for some time to come but that “it doesn’t seem like Powell and company have the political will to continue on the current track when we are going into an election year.”

The Fed is ostensibly independent but Antoni argued that the idea that it was immune from political pressures was unrealistic.

“We need to put to rest this idea that the Fed is politically independent when they have demonstrated again and again that is not the case,” he said.

Beyond any disputes about the Fed’s motivations, though, there are also some who question whether a “soft landing” would really save Biden.

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David Winston, a veteran GOP pollster, argued that Biden’s team is fundamentally misreading how public perceptions of the economy are formed.

The inflation rate may have been cut down to one-third of its peak, he argued, but that doesn’t change the fact that prices are continuing to rise.

The central point, Winston contended, is “the way people are feeling as they walk into a grocery store and see prices are continuing to go up. The argument the president is using — ‘Yes, but more slowly’ isn’t all that persuasive.”

Winston noted that even rate cuts next year would leave those rates “lower than their peak but still higher than they have been until a few years ago.”

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This, he added, was likely to lead the electorate restless and dissatisfied with the president.

More Biden-sympathic observers, like Duke, don’t see it that way.

The current optimism, he said, is a sign “that the COVID economy is over.”

If that perception takes root, it could yet propel Biden out of the polling doldrums and toward a second term.

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And he’ll have Jerome Powell to thank.

The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.

​Business, Administration, Campaign, News A key holdover from the Trump presidency could give President Biden a huge boost as he seeks reelection. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell looks to be on the cusp of pulling off a “soft landing” of the economy, after inflation roared to a four-decade high last year. The Fed’s series of interest rate increases, which…  

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Harvard Grads Jobless? How AI & Ghost Jobs Broke Hiring

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America’s job market is facing an unprecedented crisis—and nowhere is this more painfully obvious than at Harvard, the world’s gold standard for elite education. A stunning 25% of Harvard’s MBA class of 2025 remains unemployed months after graduation, the highest rate recorded in university history. The Ivy League dream has become a harsh wakeup call, and it’s sending shockwaves across the professional landscape.

Jobless at the Top: Why Graduates Can’t Find Work

For decades, a Harvard diploma was considered a golden ticket. Now, graduates send out hundreds of résumés, often from their parents’ homes, only to get ghosted or auto-rejected by machines. Only 30% of all 2025 graduates nationally have found full-time work in their field, and nearly half feel unprepared for the workforce. Go to college, get a good job“—that promise is slipping away, even for the smartest and most driven.​

Tech’s Iron Grip: ATS and AI Gatekeepers

Applicant tracking systems (ATS) and AI algorithms have become ruthless gatekeepers. If a résumé doesn’t perfectly match the keywords or formatting demanded by the bots, it never reaches human eyes. The age of human connection is gone—now, you’re just a data point to be sorted and discarded.

AI screening has gone beyond basic qualifications. New tools “read” for inferred personality and tone, rejecting candidates for reasons they never see. Worse, up to half of online job listings may be fake—created simply to collect résumés, pad company metrics, or fulfill compliance without ever intending to fill the role.

The Experience Trap: Entry-Level Jobs Require Years

It’s not just Harvard grads who are hurting. Entry-level roles demand years of experience, unpaid internships, and portfolios that resemble a seasoned professional, not a fresh graduate. A bachelor’s degree, once the key to entry, is now just the price of admission. Overqualified candidates compete for underpaid jobs, often just to survive.

One Harvard MBA described applying to 1,000 jobs with no results. Companies, inundated by applications, are now so selective that only those who precisely “game the system” have a shot. This has fundamentally flipped the hiring pyramid: enormous demand for experience, shrinking chances for new entrants, and a brutal gauntlet for anyone not perfectly groomed by internships and coaching.

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Burnout Before Day One

The cost is more than financial—mental health and optimism are collapsing among the newest generation of workers. Many come out of elite programs and immediately end up in jobs that don’t require degrees, or take positions far below their qualifications just to pay the bills. There’s a sense of burnout before careers even begin, trapping talent in a cycle of exhaustion, frustration, and disillusionment.

Cultural Collapse: From Relationships to Algorithms

What’s really broken? The culture of hiring itself. Companies have traded trust, mentorship, and relationships for metrics, optimizations, and cost-cutting. Managers no longer hire on potential—they rely on machines, rankings, and personality tests that filter out individuality and reward those who play the algorithmic game best.

AI has automated the very entry-level work that used to build careers—research, drafting, and analysis—and erased the first rung of the professional ladder for thousands of new graduates. The result is a workforce filled with people who know how to pass tests, not necessarily solve problems or drive innovation.

The Ghost Job Phenomenon

Up to half of all listings for entry-level jobs may be “ghost jobs”—positions posted online for optics, compliance, or future needs, but never intended for real hiring. This means millions of job seekers spend hours on applications destined for digital purgatory, further fueling exhaustion and cynicism.

Not Lazy—Just Locked Out

Despite the headlines, the new class of unemployed graduates is not lazy or entitled—they are overqualified, underleveraged, and battered by a broken process. Harvard’s brand means less to AI and ATS systems than the right keyword or résumé format. Human judgment has been sidelined; individuality is filtered out.

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What’s Next? Back to Human Connection

Unless companies rediscover the value of human potential, mentorship, and relationships, the job search will remain a brutal numbers game—one that even the “best and brightest” struggle to win. The current system doesn’t just hurt workers—it holds companies back from hiring bold, creative talent who don’t fit perfect digital boxes.

Key Facts:

  • 25% of Harvard MBAs unemployed, highest on record
  • Only 30% of 2025 grads nationwide have jobs in their field
  • Nearly half of grads feel unprepared for real work
  • Up to 50% of entry-level listings are “ghost jobs”
  • AI and ATS have replaced human judgment at most companies

If you’ve felt this struggle—or see it happening around you—share your story in the comments. And make sure to subscribe for more deep dives on the reality of today’s economy and job market.

This is not just a Harvard problem. It’s a sign that America’s job engine is running on empty, and it’s time to reboot—before another generation is locked out.

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Why 9 Million Americans Have Left

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The Growing American Exodus

Nearly 9 million Americans now live outside the United States—a number that rivals the population of several states and signals a profound shift in how people view the American dream. This mass migration isn’t confined to retirees or the wealthy. Thanks to remote work, digital nomad visas, and mounting pressures at home, young professionals, families, and business owners are increasingly joining the ranks of expats.

Rising Costs and Shrinking Wallets

Living in the US has become increasingly expensive. Weekly grocery bills topping $300 are not uncommon, and everyday items like coffee and beef have surged in price over the last year. Rent, utilities, and other essentials also continue to climb, leaving many Americans to cut meals or put off purchases just to make ends meet. In contrast, life in countries like Mexico or Costa Rica often costs just 50–60% of what it does in the US—without sacrificing comfort or quality.

Health Care Concerns Drive Migration

America’s health care system is a major trigger for relocation. Despite the fact that the US spends more per person on health care than any other country, millions struggle to access affordable treatment. Over half of Americans admit to delaying medical care due to cost, with households earning below $40,000 seeing this rate jump to 63%. Many expats point to countries such as Spain or Thailand, where health care is both affordable and accessible, as a major draw.

Seeking Safety Abroad

Public safety issues—especially violent crime and gun-related incidents—have made many Americans feel unsafe, even in their own communities. The 2024 Global Peace Index documents a decline in North America’s safety ratings, while families in major cities often prioritize teaching their children to avoid gun violence over simple street safety. In many overseas destinations, newly arrived American families report a significant improvement in their sense of security and peace of mind.

Tax Burdens and Bureaucracy

US tax laws extend abroad, requiring expats to file annual returns and comply with complicated rules through acts such as FATCA. For some, the burden of global tax compliance is so great that thousands relinquish their US citizenship each year simply to escape the paperwork and scrutiny.

The Digital Nomad Revolution

Remote work has unlocked new pathways for Americans. Over a quarter of all paid workdays in the US are now fully remote, and more than 40 countries offer digital nomad visas for foreign professionals. Many Americans are leveraging this opportunity to maintain their US incomes while cutting costs and upgrading their quality of life abroad.

Conclusion: Redefining the Dream

The mass departure of nearly 9 million Americans reveals deep cracks in what was once considered the land of opportunity. Escalating costs, inaccessible healthcare, safety concerns, and relentless bureaucracy have spurred a global search for better options. For millions, the modern American dream is no longer tied to a white-picket fence, but found in newfound freedom beyond America’s borders.

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Will Theaters Crush Streaming in Hollywood’s Next Act?

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Hollywood is bracing for a pivotal comeback, and for movie lovers, it’s the kind of shake-up that could redefine the very culture of cinema. With the freshly merged Paramount-Skydance shaking up its strategy, CEO David Ellison’s announcement doesn’t just signal a change—it reignites the passion for moviegoing that built the magic of Hollywood in the first place.

Theatrical Experience Roars Back

Fans and insiders alike have felt the itch for more event movies. For years, streaming promised endless options, but fragmented attention left many longing for communal spectacle. Now, with Paramount-Skydance tripling its film output for the big screen, it’s clear: studio leaders believe there’s no substitute for the lights, the hush before the opening credits, and the collective thrill of reacting to Hollywood’s latest blockbusters. Ellison’s pivot away from streaming exclusives taps deep into what unites cinephiles—the lived experience of cinema as art and event, not just content.

Industry Pulse: From Crisis to Renaissance

On the financial front, the numbers are as electrifying as any plot twist. After years of doubt, the box office is roaring. AMC, the world’s largest theater chain, reports a staggering 26% spike in moviegoer attendance and 36% revenue growth in Q2 2025. That kind of momentum hasn’t been seen since the heyday of summer tentpoles—and it’s not just about more tickets sold. AMC’s strategy—premium screens, with IMAX and Dolby Cinema, curated concessions, and branded collectibles—has turned every new release into an event, driving per-customer profits up nearly 50% compared to pre-pandemic norms.

Blockbusters Lead the Culture

Forget the gloom of endless streaming drops; when films like Top Gun: Maverick, Mission: Impossible, Minecraft, and surprise hits like Weapons and Freakier Friday draw crowds, the industry—and movie fans—sit up and take notice. Movie-themed collectibles and concession innovations, from Barbie’s iconic pink car popcorn holders to anniversary tie-ins, have made each screening a moment worth remembering, blending nostalgia and discovery. The focus: high-impact, shared audience experiences that streaming can’t replicate.

Streaming’s Limits and Studio Strategy

Yes, streaming is still surging, but the tide may be turning. The biggest franchises, and the biggest cultural events, happen when audiences come together for a theatrical release. Paramount-Skydance’s shift signals to rivals that premium storytelling and box office spectacle are again at the center of Hollywood value creation. The result is not just higher profits for exhibitors like AMC, but a rebirth of movie-going as the ultimate destination for fans hungry for connection and cinematic adventure.

Future Forecast: Culture, Community, and Blockbuster Dreams

As PwC and others warn that box office totals may take years to fully catch up, movie lovers and industry leaders alike are betting that exclusive theatrical runs, enhanced viewing experiences, and fan-driven engagement are the ingredients for long-term recovery—and a new golden age. The Paramount-Skydance play is more than a business move; it’s a rallying cry for the art of the theatrical event. Expect more big bets, more surprises, and—finally—a long-overdue renaissance for the silver screen.

For those who believe in the power of cinema, it’s a thrilling second act—and the best seat in the house might be front and center once again.

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