US added 216,000 jobs in December, blowing past expectations
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Surprise jobs data gives boost to Biden on January 5, 2024 at 5:40 pm Business News | The Hill
A surprisingly strong December jobs gain is good news for President Biden as the prospect of the long-sought-after “soft landing” comes into greater focus at the start of an election year.
Payrolls came in hot in December with 216,000 new jobs added to the economy and the unemployment rate remaining low at 3.7 percent, according to the Labor Department.
The December jobs report was another upside surprise for a labor market that defied economists’ expectations throughout 2023. But the promising state of the economy is hardly a lock in voters’ minds for the president.
Despite ample salesmanship, Biden’s economic approval ratings are low. Just 32 percent of Americans gave Biden a thumbs up on the economy in a November Gallup poll.
His overall approval ratings are also weak, with 39 percent of Americans giving him a passing grade in December polling. That’s still a slight improvement from his November rating of 37 percent.
And Biden currently trails former President Trump, his likely Republican opponent, by 2 percent in The Hill/Decision Desk HQ poll tracker.
The state of the economy is likely to be top-of-mind for voters, so 2024 promises to be a year of intense economic rhetoric and argumentation. Here’s how the first jobs report of the year sets the stage.
The airport is ‘on the horizon’ for the soft landing
The December jobs report is boosting confidence among policymakers that the U.S. economy is in a “soft landing,” or the rebalancing of the economy toward slow and steady growth from high inflation without a recession.
After the federal government pumped trillions of dollars in stimulus into the economy and inflation took off in 2021, the Fed started raising interest rates in 2022 to slow things down, leading many economists to believe a recession was inevitable.
But despite many wrong predictions, a recession failed to materialize in 2023. The strong jobs numbers from December — along with wage growth of 4.1 percent over the past year — are yet more evidence for the soft landing scenario.
“What we’re seeing now I think we can describe as a soft landing, and my hope is that it will continue,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Friday in an interview on CNN.
“The American people did it,” she added. “The American people go to work every day, participate in the labor market, form new businesses. But President Biden has tried to create incentives that give Americans the tools they need to help this economy grow.”
Yellen’s former Fed colleagues have also noted as much.
“The airport is on the horizon,” Tom Barkin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, said in a speech Wednesday. “Everyone is talking about the potential for a soft landing, where inflation completes its journey back to normal levels while the economy stays healthy. And you can see the case for that.”
Optimism among investors is also percolating.
“Two consecutive positive jobs reports and solid consumer spending amid easing inflation are welcome news both for consumers and investors,” Stephen J. Rich, head of investment firm Mutual of America Capital Management, wrote in a statement sent to The Hill. “A soft landing for the economy appears much more likely.”
Parties battle for control of narrative
Democrats were eager to cheer the Friday jobs report as evidence that their policies are working as the party and Biden attempt to flip voter sentiment on the economy.
“Another strong report to round out a year of sustainable job growth, and growing the economy from the bottom-up and middle-out is the new pro-worker, pro-growth strategy,” Rep. Richard Neal (D-Mass.), ranking member of the House Ways and Means Committee, said Friday.
“By every measure, it’s working.”
Republicans, however, are keeping the focus on cost increases endured by Americans over the past two years thanks to four-decade-high inflation and the Fed’s rapid rate hikes.
“The average monthly mortgage payment has increased by $1,089 and is 96 percent higher than when President Biden took office in January 2021,” Ways and Means Republicans said in a statement.
“Consumer credit debt has reached an all-time high of just over $1 trillion and the number of Americans struggling to pay credit card bills has increased sharply.”
“As the calendar turns to 2024, working families see an administration pushing the same failed policies of ‘Bidenomics’ that have caused such financial and economic struggle, frustration, and anxiety,” Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) said.
Inflation is falling and gas prices are easing
While Americans are still dealing with elevated inflation, Democrats are hopeful that slowing price growth will bolster their pitch to voters.
Inflation has dropped from a 9-percent annual increase in June 2022 to a 3.1-percent increase this past November, according to the Labor Department’s consumer price index (CPI).
The dip in inflation comes as wage increases have broadly kept pace, with a 4.1-percent annual increase in average hourly earnings reported Friday by the Labor Department.
For the lowest-paid workers in the economy, their wage increases have outpaced inflation for a net gain throughout the pandemic.
And gas prices, which are some of the costs that consumers feel most acutely, are also on the retreat.
The national average price for a gallon of gas was $3.09 on Friday — a far cry from the $5 peak at the height of inflation.
“Right now, the average driver in America is spending over $100 less than if gas prices had stayed at their peak,” Biden touted in a Friday post on X, formerly known as Twitter.
Rate cuts may be delayed as job market holds strong
Investors had started to price in rate cuts for some time this year in anticipation of inflation returning to the Fed’s 2-percent annual expectation.
That could lead to an additional boost for the stock market, which is already near record highs, with the S&P 500 index of major U.S. stocks up nearly 600 points since the end of October.
But the strength of the Friday jobs report will likely mean the Fed will push back rate cuts.
The chances of the Fed holding rates steady at its next meeting at the current range of 5.25 to 5.5 percent were clocked by the CME Fedwatch prediction algorithm on Friday at 95 percent.
Strengthening consumer sentiment may also be a tailwind for Biden heading into 2024, with the Michigan Survey of Consumer Sentiment soaring 14 percent in December.
Business, Economy, News, 2024 election, Biden administration, Donald Trump, inflation, Jobs Report, Joe Biden, soft landing A surprisingly strong December jobs gain is good news for President Biden as the prospect of the long-sought-after “soft landing” comes into greater focus at the start of an election year. Payrolls came in hot in December with 216,000 new jobs added to the economy and the unemployment rate remaining low at 3.7 percent, according…
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The Cities Bracing for Trump’s Immigration Crackdown
In the wake of Donald Trump’s recent election victory and his promise of “the largest deportation operation in American history,” several major U.S. cities are bracing for potentially seismic shifts in their economic and social landscapes. As the nation grapples with the implications of this proposed policy, urban centers that have long been havens for immigrant communities find themselves at the epicenter of a looming storm.
Los Angeles, often dubbed the “City of Angels,” stands to lose more than its celestial nickname suggests. As a primary gateway for immigrants, the city’s vibrant tapestry of cultures and its economic engine could face significant disruption. From the bustling streets of Koreatown to the sun-drenched orchards of the Central Valley, the absence of undocumented workers could leave gaping holes in the city’s workforce and cultural identity.
Across the country, New York City, with its iconic skyline and melting pot reputation, faces its own reckoning. The Big Apple’s 5.9 million immigrants, many of whom are undocumented, form the backbone of industries ranging from construction to healthcare. The potential exodus could transform neighborhoods like Jackson Heights and Flushing, altering the very essence of what makes New York a global city.In the Sunshine State, Miami’s tropical allure belies the turbulent times ahead. Home to 2.5 million immigrants, the city’s economy relies heavily on sectors like tourism and hospitality – industries where undocumented workers often fill crucial roles. The potential deportation of these workers could send shockwaves through Miami’s economic ecosystem, from South Beach’s glitzy hotels to the agricultural heartlands of South Florida.
Chicago, the “City of Big Shoulders,” may find those shoulders significantly weakened. With 1.7 million immigrants in its metropolitan area, the Windy City’s diverse neighborhoods and industries face an uncertain future. From the meatpacking plants to the tech startups, Chicago’s economic resilience could be tested like never before.
In the Lone Star State, Houston and Dallas stand as twin testaments to the complexities of immigration policy. These Texas titans, each home to large immigrant populations, could see their booming economies stumble. The construction sites that dot their ever-expanding skylines and the service industries that keep these cities humming could face unprecedented labor shortages.
Out West, the San Francisco Bay Area’s reputation as a bastion of innovation and progress could be challenged. The region’s tech industry, often reliant on immigrant talent, might find itself grappling with a new reality. From Silicon Valley’s coding campuses to the agricultural expanses of the Central Valley, California’s economic powerhouse could face a reckoning. Phoenix, rising from the Sonoran Desert, could see its growth trajectory altered. As Arizona’s urban center, it stands at the forefront of the immigration debate, potentially facing not just economic impacts but social and political upheaval as well.
These cities, along with others like San Diego and Las Vegas, are not just facing potential economic disruptions. They are staring down the barrel of profound social change. Family separations, community fragmentation, and the erosion of cultural enclaves built over generations are all possible consequences of mass deportations. Moreover, the fiscal implications are staggering. Undocumented immigrants contribute billions in taxes annually, often without receiving the full benefits of their contributions. Their sudden absence could leave gaping holes in city budgets, potentially affecting public services and infrastructure projects.
As these urban centers brace for impact, the debate rages on. Supporters of stricter immigration policies argue for the need to enforce laws and protect American jobs. Critics warn of economic devastation and the unraveling of America’s urban fabric. What’s clear is that America’s cities stand at a crossroads. The coming months and years will likely reshape urban landscapes in ways both visible and invisible. From the foods we eat to the services we rely on, from the neighborhoods we call home to the very character of our cities, the impacts of this proposed immigration crackdown could be far-reaching and long-lasting. As the nation watches and waits, these cities – vibrant, diverse, and economically vital – find themselves on the front lines of a policy that could redefine what it means to be an American city in the 21st century.
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How Trump’s Deportation Plans Could Reshape Major Cities
In the wake of Donald Trump’s recent election victory, his ambitious plans for mass deportations have thrust America’s urban centers into the spotlight. As the nation grapples with the potential implications of what Trump calls “the largest deportation operation in American history,” cities across the country are bracing for significant changes that could reshape their economic, social, and cultural landscapes.
The stakes are particularly high for metropolitan areas like New York, Los Angeles, Houston, Dallas, and Miami, which host the largest populations of unauthorized immigrants. These cities, along with other major urban hubs such as Chicago, Washington D.C., and San Francisco, stand at the forefront of a looming transformation that could reverberate throughout the nation.
Economic Tremors
Economists warn that the proposed deportations could send shockwaves through urban economies. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s, cautions that businesses would face “significant challenges” if a substantial number of immigrants were removed. Industries such as construction, hospitality, and healthcare—pillars of urban economies—could face severe labor shortages.
Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, emphasizes the potential ripple effects: “The native-born workforce cannot meet current labor demands.” This labor gap could lead to increased wages, potentially rekindling inflation—a concern that looms large over city planners and policymakers alike.
Community Fabric Under Strain
Beyond economic considerations, the social fabric of cities hangs in the balance. Elena, a Nicaraguan immigrant in Houston, voices a fear echoed in immigrant communities across the nation: “I’m scared… This is my home.” The threat of family separations, particularly in mixed-status households, casts a long shadow over urban neighborhoods.
Immigrant advocacy groups like FIEL are mobilizing, advising clients to prepare for “anything that can happen.” This atmosphere of uncertainty could lead to decreased community engagement and cooperation with local authorities, potentially impacting public safety and community cohesion.
Cities at a Crossroads
As the debate intensifies, cities find themselves at a crossroads. Some, like New York and Los Angeles, have historically positioned themselves as “sanctuary cities,” often at odds with federal immigration enforcement. The impending clash between federal policy and local governance promises to be a defining feature of this new political landscape.
Meanwhile, the logistical challenges of implementing such a massive deportation operation remain daunting. Questions abound regarding detention facilities, transportation networks, and the sheer manpower required to carry out Trump’s vision.
Looking Ahead
As America’s urban centers brace for potential change, the full impact of Trump’s deportation plans remains to be seen. Legal challenges are all but certain, and the resilience of America’s cities will be put to the test.
What is clear is that the coming months and years will be pivotal for urban America. As Jason Miller, a senior Trump adviser, puts it, the plan is to “immediately reinstate” immigration policies from Trump’s first term. For America’s cities, this could mean a period of unprecedented change, challenge, and, potentially, transformation.
As the nation watches and waits, the story of America’s cities in the face of this ambitious deportation plan is just beginning to unfold. The outcome will undoubtedly shape the future of urban life in America for years to come.
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Donald Trump Wins 2024 USA Election
Based on the election results, Donald Trump has indeed won the 2024 U.S. presidential election, defeating Vice President Kamala Harris. Here’s an analysis of the key statistics and implications:
Electoral College Victory
Donald Trump has secured the presidency by winning crucial battleground states and flipping some key states that were previously held by Democrats. The final Electoral College tally is still being determined, but Trump has surpassed the 270 electoral votes needed to win.
Battleground State Performance
Trump’s victory was largely secured by winning several critical swing states:
- Wisconsin: Trump’s win here was pivotal in securing his path to victory.
- Pennsylvania: This state flipped back to Republican control.
- Georgia: Another key state that Trump managed to win back.
- Michigan: Trump successfully flipped this traditionally Democratic stronghold.
Popular Vote and Voter Priorities
While the final popular vote tally is still being calculated, exit polls provide insight into voter priorities:
- Economy and democracy were top concerns for voters.
- Abortion and immigration also played significant roles in voter decision-making.
Congressional Control
The election results extend beyond the presidency:
- Republicans are set to take back the Senate majority, securing at least 51 seats.
- Control of the House of Representatives remains undetermined.
Media Implications
The outcome of this election could be seen as a challenge to mainstream media narratives for several reasons:
- Polling Discrepancies: Many pre-election polls suggested a tight race or even a slight Harris advantage in key states. Trump’s victory, particularly in battleground states, may indicate that polls underestimated his support.
- Narrative Shifts: Throughout the campaign, much of the mainstream media focused on Trump’s legal challenges and controversies. His victory suggests that these issues may not have resonated with voters as much as economic and policy concerns.
- Voter Priorities: The emphasis on issues like the economy and immigration in voter decision-making may indicate a disconnect between media focus and voter concerns.
- Electoral Predictions: Many mainstream outlets were cautious about predicting a Trump victory, even as results began to favor him. This hesitancy could be seen as a reflection of broader media skepticism about Trump’s chances.
- Underestimation of Trump’s Base: The results suggest that Trump’s core support remained strong and potentially grew, despite negative coverage in much of the mainstream media.
It’s important to note that while the election outcome may challenge some media narratives, it doesn’t necessarily invalidate all mainstream reporting. The complex factors influencing voter behavior and the challenges of accurate political forecasting remain subjects of ongoing analysis and debate.
As the dust settles on this historic election, both the media and political analysts will likely engage in extensive reflection on the factors that led to Trump’s victory and the implications for future political coverage and analysis.
Bolanle Media is excited to announce our partnership with The Newbie Film Academy to offer comprehensive courses designed specifically for aspiring screenwriters. Whether you’re just starting out or looking to enhance your skills, our resources will provide you with the tools and knowledge needed to succeed in the competitive world of screenwriting. Join us today to unlock your creative potential and take your first steps toward crafting compelling stories that resonate with audiences. Let’s turn your ideas into impactful scripts together!
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