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Russia launches its offensive with all eyes on Ukraine’s southern push on August 13, 2023 at 12:00 pm
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1 year agoon
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With the world’s attention on Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the south, Russia has quietly launched a new offensive in the eastern Luhansk region, which analysts say is aimed at undermining the Ukrainian operation.
While the operation is much smaller in size and scope than Moscow’s winter offensive, Russia is making some progress and appears to be narrowing in on the city of Kupyansk, where Ukraine ordered an evacuation this week.
The Russian advance could pressure Ukraine amid a major offensive of its own and divide its attention. Any success could also paint a politically beneficial contrast with Ukraine’s slow-moving counteroffensive in the southeastern Zaporizhzhia region.
Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, doubted Russia can advance. But if it does, he said it would be a significant blow to Ukraine at a perilous moment.
“This is something worth keeping an eye on. If the Russians make some progress here, then this is a really big deal,” Cancian said. “It would be devastating to Ukraine’s narrative about the counteroffensive if the Russians were able to capture Luhansk — which I don’t think they can.
“But if they’re able to do that at a time when the Ukrainian counteroffensive was hung up in the defensive zone, that would be a very powerful failure and I think very discouraging to Western supporters,” he added.
Moscow’s winter offensive culminated at the end of March and Russian forces have since concentrated on defense against Ukraine’s counteroffensive. But Russia has never completely stopped its offensive operations, continuing a steady array of limited attacks across the 600-mile front in eastern Ukraine.
The Luhansk advance has picked up speed since mid-July, with fighting reportedly taking place mostly in rural and open fields, similar to the southern Zaporizhzhia region but in less populated areas.
Russia made rapid gains this week toward Kupyansk, a city in the Kharkiv region that lies just beyond Luhansk that, if taken, would consolidate Russian control of the area. The city was taken by Moscow in the early days of the war before Ukrainian forces recaptured it in a lightning advance last fall.
Earlier this week, Russia reportedly moved within artillery range northeast of the city. Evacuations were ordered in dozens of settlements near Kupyansk as Russian forces approached within miles of the city. The fight is far from over because Russian forces face more defenses and would have to cross the Oksil River to fully capture Kupyansk.
Russian military bloggers and state-run news sites have covered the news relentlessly in the past week, trying to paint a grim picture for Ukraine, which Russia’s Defense Ministry reports has lost dozens of troops in the past few days.
Popular Russian military blogger Alexander Kots on Telegram said Ukraine was dispersing its troops in a hurried attempt to defend against the advance. “I look at the progress map in this direction and feel cautious optimism,” wrote Kots. “Now the Armed Forces of Ukraine are in a position that is not very advantageous for them.”
Ukrainian officials have confirmed attacks are intensifying near Kupyansk and that they are moving to defend against them. Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar described “intense” attacks but said defenses were holding.
Russia is also moving in from Kreminna in Luhansk toward the city of Lyman in the Donetsk region. Lyman, south of Kupyansk, is another major target in Moscow’s efforts to stabilize its power in the east.
Igor Zhdanov, an international correspondent for state-run news agency RT, said Russian “fighters managed to penetrate the enemy defenses” in a battle inside a forest and natural preserve near Lyman.
“A really serious defensive line has fallen, which for many months fettered our actions on this sector of the front,” he wrote on Telegram.
Despite the reports, Western military analysts are skeptical Russia has the capabilities to make any significant progress after exhausting manpower, munitions and resources in a costly war of attrition to take the city of Bakhmut over the spring.
Aram Shabanian, an open-source information gathering manager for the think tank New Lines Institute, said Russia has made gains but was “not capturing major cities or overrunning Ukrainian positions.”
“They’re trying to force the Ukrainians to draw their forces to a different battlefield, while simultaneously probing to see where there are weaknesses,” he said, but “they’re not making great advances at the moment.”
Shabanian also stressed Russia has spent most of its resources and is unlikely to be able to muster any significant offensive operation until next year, an assessment shared by most war analysts.
“They’ve reached their high-water mark, and from here on out, it’s going to be a grinding fight,” he said. “But the Ukrainian side of the war is going to get more advanced technology and weapons, while the Russians dig further and further into the reserves, [and] it’s going to be harder and harder for the Russians to meaningfully take land at this point.”
Russia controls most of Luhansk already, so seizing the rest of the region would be a political victory for Russian President Vladimir Putin. It would also put his troops in a better position to occupy the rest of the Donbas, made up of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions.
Luhansk, however, is not as strategically vital as the southern Zaporizhzhia region, which connects the Russian mainland to the Crimean Peninsula and is situated on major bodies of water such as the Sea of Azov.
Branislav Slantchev, a professor studying the war at the University of California, San Diego, said a Russian success in Luhansk wouldn’t dramatically change the war. He said the Kupyansk push was “obviously designed to break up the Ukrainian offensive.”
“The goal is kind of an attempt to threaten the Ukrainians enough with a breakthrough to make the Ukrainians … draw forces away from the south,” he said. “But all the action strategically is in the south. This is what the Russians care about. They care about protecting Crimea. They care about protecting the land routes, they care about the access to the Black Sea.”
But Putin is also hoping to buy time, hoping that Western support for Ukraine cracks. And taking Luhansk would undoubtedly send a powerful message that his army is triumphing while Ukraine visibly struggles in the south.
Maksym Skrypchenko, the president of the Transatlantic Dialogue Center, a nonprofit advising Ukraine’s government, expressed fears of the political cost of a Russian victory in Luhansk — though he’s confident in Ukraine’s defenses.
“Moscow is trying to make our Western alliance rethink their approach towards giving Ukraine more and more weapons,” he said. “But still, I don’t think that we will see any solid Russian advance soon because they ran out of human resources.”
With the world’s attention on Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the south, Russia has quietly launched a new offensive in the eastern Luhansk region, which analysts say is aimed at undermining the Ukrainian operation. While the operation is much smaller in size and scope than Moscow’s winter offensive, Russia is making some progress and appears to be…
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Proponents argue that AI Steve can revolutionize politics by bringing more voices into the process and ensuring that policies truly reflect the will of the people. They claim that an AI candidate can engage in up to 10,000 conversations simultaneously, allowing for unprecedented levels of public participation and input.
However, critics raise valid concerns about transparency, accountability, and the potential for AI systems to be manipulated or influenced by their creators, data limitations, or external actors. There are also questions about whether an AI can fully grasp the nuances and human elements involved in complex political issues.
Some argue that AI Steve is merely a clever marketing ploy to garner attention and votes, rather than a genuine effort to “humanize” politics. There are fears that the use of AI in elections could undermine faith in electoral outcomes and democratic processes if voters become aware of potential scams or manipulation.
Beyond the specific case of AI Steve, the rise of AI candidates and the increasing use of AI in political campaigns and elections raise broader questions about the integrity of democratic systems and the need for effective regulations and guidelines.
Anti-democratic actors and authoritarian regimes may seek to exploit AI technologies for censorship, surveillance, and suppressing dissent under the guise of enhancing governance. There are also concerns about the potential for an “AI arms race” between political parties to develop and deploy the most sophisticated AI technologies, further eroding public trust.
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Author: Bolanle Media Staff
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Saudi Arabia is reportedly considering abandoning the US dollar for oil trade settlements, a move that could shake the foundations of the global financial system. For decades, the petrodollar system has propped up the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency, with Saudi Arabia insisting on dollar payments for its vast oil exports.
However, recent comments from Saudi officials hint at exploring alternatives to the dollar amid growing tensions with the US over various geopolitical issues and the rise of economic powerhouses like China.
Implications of a Petrodollar Shift
If Saudi Arabia abandons the petrodollar, the implications could be significant:
1. Dollar Dominance Eroded: The dollar’s reserve currency status could weaken, potentially leading to a decline in its value.
2. Global Financial Instability: A sudden shift could trigger volatility in global markets as investors adjust portfolios.
3. Geopolitical Realignment: The move could signal Saudi alignment with China and challenge US economic hegemony.
Challenges and Uncertainties
While the prospect is significant, challenges remain:
1. Finding a suitable alternative currency with the dollar’s liquidity and stability.
2. Potential economic disruption for Saudi Arabia and trading partners.
3. Political backlash and strained relations with the US and allies.
As the world watches, it remains uncertain whether Saudi Arabia’s comments signal a negotiating tactic or a profound shift in the global financial order.
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X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter, has made a significant policy shift by officially permitting adult content on its platform with some restrictions and guidelines.
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“We recognize that many of our users are adults who want to freely express themselves by sharing legal adult content,” said an X spokesperson. “At the same time, we have a responsibility to protect minors and prevent exposure to explicit material without proper labeling.”
Under the new guidelines, users who “regularly post” adult content must adjust their settings to automatically mark images and videos as sensitive content, which blurs or hides the media by default. By default, users under 18 or who haven’t entered their birth date cannot view this sensitive adult content.
The policy prohibits content “promoting exploitation, nonconsent, objectification, sexualization or harm to minors, and obscene behaviors.” It applies to all adult content, whether photographic, animated, or AI-generated.
X has stated that it will monitor user-generated content and adjust account settings for those who fail to properly mark pornographic posts. Similar rules and enforcement will apply to violent content as well.
The move aligns X with Apple’s app store guidelines, which allow apps with adult content as long as it is hidden by default and behind proper age gates and content warnings.
While adult content was already present on X, this policy update officially permits and regulates it, aiming to balance freedom of expression for consenting adults with protecting minors from exposure to explicit material.
However, enforcing these rules consistently may prove challenging for X’s reduced content moderation teams following recent layoffs and cost-cutting measures.
The policy shift has drawn mixed reactions, with some praising X for embracing adult expression while others raise concerns about the potential for the platform to become inundated with pornographic content despite the restrictions.
As X navigates this new territory, the effectiveness of its labeling requirements, age verification measures, and content moderation efforts will be closely watched by users, regulators, and advocacy groups alike.
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