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Quits rate falls to pre-pandemic levels as job market shows signs of cooling on August 29, 2023 at 9:18 pm Business News | The Hill
The rate at which Americans are quitting their jobs fell to pre-pandemic levels in July, the latest sign that the so-called “Great Resignation” is waning and the job market is cooling.
Just over 3.5 million employed Americans — or about 2.3 percent — quit their jobs last month, according to the job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS) released Tuesday by the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This is the lowest the quits rate has been since January 2021 and falls in line with pre-pandemic rates, which hovered around 2.3 to 2.4 percent in the years leading up to the outbreak of COVID-19.
Job openings also fell to 8.8 million in July, down from 9.2 million in June and marking its lowest level since March 2021, according to the Labor Department’s data.
Julia Pollak, chief economist with online recruiting company ZipRecruiter, said on Tuesday that the new data largely bridges the recent gap between federal data and the number of online jobs postings, which had already fallen to pre-pandemic levels.
“Today’s JOLTS report partially resolves the conundrum and confirms what we’ve been seeing in online job postings: the labor market is largely back to pre-pandemic conditions,” Pollak said in a statement.
She pointed to the “large drop” in job openings in July to just 26 percent above pre-pandemic levels and the dip in the quits rate “all the way back to its pre-pandemic rate.”
“Both declines point to cooling labor market conditions, which will come as a relief to many employers, but bring back many of the old challenges that have characterized job search for decades,” she added.
The falling quits rate appears to be the latest signal that the “Great Resignation” — in which Americans left their jobs at record-high rates in the wake of the pandemic — is waning.
The quits rate peaked at 3 percent in late 2021 and early 2022, around the same time that job openings hit a high of 12 million.
The vast majority of Americans who quit their jobs do so before taking new ones, often with better compensation, working conditions or career opportunities. Record levels of job openings prompted millions of workers to seek new gigs and forced companies to boost wages and other perks for applicants.
However, Elise Gould, a senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute, suggested that Tuesday’s numbers are still consistent with a good labor market for workers.
“Even as hires have softened, hiring remains above the quits rate in every sector,” Gould said in a statement. “The great reshuffling isn’t what it was two years ago, but it continues as workers look and find better job opportunities.”
While Pollak suggested that the shift was indicative of a cooling market, she similarly noted that the current conditions still favor job seekers and workers to an extent.
“While it might take more time, more applications, and stronger job interview performances to land a job than it did in 2021 and 2022, there are still plenty of jobs going unfilled,” Pollak said.
The latest job opening numbers come as the Federal Reserve is set to consider yet another interest rate hike next month amid its efforts to rein in inflation.
After reaching a record-high of 9.1 percent last June, annual inflation has eased over the past year, coming in at 3.2 percent last month, according to the Labor Department’s Consumer Price Index (CPI).
As the Fed attempts to get inflation down to its 2 percent target, signs of a cooling job market could weigh against an additional rate hike in September.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell noted on Friday at a gathering of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyo., that the softening of labor market conditions would be a key factor in further bringing down inflation.
While Powell acknowledged that the labor market has continued to rebalance over the last year, he also warned that “evidence that the tightness in the labor market is no longer easing could also call for a monetary policy response.”
Business, Economy, federal reserve, Great Resignation, inflation, interest rate hikes, job openings, Labor Department, labor market, quits The rate at which Americans are quitting their jobs fell to pre-pandemic levels in July, the latest sign that the so-called “Great Resignation” is waning and the job market is cooling. Just over 3.5 million employed Americans — or about 2.3 percent — quit their jobs last month, according to the job openings and labor…
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The Cities Bracing for Trump’s Immigration Crackdown
In the wake of Donald Trump’s recent election victory and his promise of “the largest deportation operation in American history,” several major U.S. cities are bracing for potentially seismic shifts in their economic and social landscapes. As the nation grapples with the implications of this proposed policy, urban centers that have long been havens for immigrant communities find themselves at the epicenter of a looming storm.
Los Angeles, often dubbed the “City of Angels,” stands to lose more than its celestial nickname suggests. As a primary gateway for immigrants, the city’s vibrant tapestry of cultures and its economic engine could face significant disruption. From the bustling streets of Koreatown to the sun-drenched orchards of the Central Valley, the absence of undocumented workers could leave gaping holes in the city’s workforce and cultural identity.
Across the country, New York City, with its iconic skyline and melting pot reputation, faces its own reckoning. The Big Apple’s 5.9 million immigrants, many of whom are undocumented, form the backbone of industries ranging from construction to healthcare. The potential exodus could transform neighborhoods like Jackson Heights and Flushing, altering the very essence of what makes New York a global city.In the Sunshine State, Miami’s tropical allure belies the turbulent times ahead. Home to 2.5 million immigrants, the city’s economy relies heavily on sectors like tourism and hospitality – industries where undocumented workers often fill crucial roles. The potential deportation of these workers could send shockwaves through Miami’s economic ecosystem, from South Beach’s glitzy hotels to the agricultural heartlands of South Florida.
Chicago, the “City of Big Shoulders,” may find those shoulders significantly weakened. With 1.7 million immigrants in its metropolitan area, the Windy City’s diverse neighborhoods and industries face an uncertain future. From the meatpacking plants to the tech startups, Chicago’s economic resilience could be tested like never before.
In the Lone Star State, Houston and Dallas stand as twin testaments to the complexities of immigration policy. These Texas titans, each home to large immigrant populations, could see their booming economies stumble. The construction sites that dot their ever-expanding skylines and the service industries that keep these cities humming could face unprecedented labor shortages.
Out West, the San Francisco Bay Area’s reputation as a bastion of innovation and progress could be challenged. The region’s tech industry, often reliant on immigrant talent, might find itself grappling with a new reality. From Silicon Valley’s coding campuses to the agricultural expanses of the Central Valley, California’s economic powerhouse could face a reckoning. Phoenix, rising from the Sonoran Desert, could see its growth trajectory altered. As Arizona’s urban center, it stands at the forefront of the immigration debate, potentially facing not just economic impacts but social and political upheaval as well.
These cities, along with others like San Diego and Las Vegas, are not just facing potential economic disruptions. They are staring down the barrel of profound social change. Family separations, community fragmentation, and the erosion of cultural enclaves built over generations are all possible consequences of mass deportations. Moreover, the fiscal implications are staggering. Undocumented immigrants contribute billions in taxes annually, often without receiving the full benefits of their contributions. Their sudden absence could leave gaping holes in city budgets, potentially affecting public services and infrastructure projects.
As these urban centers brace for impact, the debate rages on. Supporters of stricter immigration policies argue for the need to enforce laws and protect American jobs. Critics warn of economic devastation and the unraveling of America’s urban fabric. What’s clear is that America’s cities stand at a crossroads. The coming months and years will likely reshape urban landscapes in ways both visible and invisible. From the foods we eat to the services we rely on, from the neighborhoods we call home to the very character of our cities, the impacts of this proposed immigration crackdown could be far-reaching and long-lasting. As the nation watches and waits, these cities – vibrant, diverse, and economically vital – find themselves on the front lines of a policy that could redefine what it means to be an American city in the 21st century.
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How Trump’s Deportation Plans Could Reshape Major Cities
In the wake of Donald Trump’s recent election victory, his ambitious plans for mass deportations have thrust America’s urban centers into the spotlight. As the nation grapples with the potential implications of what Trump calls “the largest deportation operation in American history,” cities across the country are bracing for significant changes that could reshape their economic, social, and cultural landscapes.
The stakes are particularly high for metropolitan areas like New York, Los Angeles, Houston, Dallas, and Miami, which host the largest populations of unauthorized immigrants. These cities, along with other major urban hubs such as Chicago, Washington D.C., and San Francisco, stand at the forefront of a looming transformation that could reverberate throughout the nation.
Economic Tremors
Economists warn that the proposed deportations could send shockwaves through urban economies. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s, cautions that businesses would face “significant challenges” if a substantial number of immigrants were removed. Industries such as construction, hospitality, and healthcare—pillars of urban economies—could face severe labor shortages.
Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, emphasizes the potential ripple effects: “The native-born workforce cannot meet current labor demands.” This labor gap could lead to increased wages, potentially rekindling inflation—a concern that looms large over city planners and policymakers alike.
Community Fabric Under Strain
Beyond economic considerations, the social fabric of cities hangs in the balance. Elena, a Nicaraguan immigrant in Houston, voices a fear echoed in immigrant communities across the nation: “I’m scared… This is my home.” The threat of family separations, particularly in mixed-status households, casts a long shadow over urban neighborhoods.
Immigrant advocacy groups like FIEL are mobilizing, advising clients to prepare for “anything that can happen.” This atmosphere of uncertainty could lead to decreased community engagement and cooperation with local authorities, potentially impacting public safety and community cohesion.
Cities at a Crossroads
As the debate intensifies, cities find themselves at a crossroads. Some, like New York and Los Angeles, have historically positioned themselves as “sanctuary cities,” often at odds with federal immigration enforcement. The impending clash between federal policy and local governance promises to be a defining feature of this new political landscape.
Meanwhile, the logistical challenges of implementing such a massive deportation operation remain daunting. Questions abound regarding detention facilities, transportation networks, and the sheer manpower required to carry out Trump’s vision.
Looking Ahead
As America’s urban centers brace for potential change, the full impact of Trump’s deportation plans remains to be seen. Legal challenges are all but certain, and the resilience of America’s cities will be put to the test.
What is clear is that the coming months and years will be pivotal for urban America. As Jason Miller, a senior Trump adviser, puts it, the plan is to “immediately reinstate” immigration policies from Trump’s first term. For America’s cities, this could mean a period of unprecedented change, challenge, and, potentially, transformation.
As the nation watches and waits, the story of America’s cities in the face of this ambitious deportation plan is just beginning to unfold. The outcome will undoubtedly shape the future of urban life in America for years to come.
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Business
Donald Trump Wins 2024 USA Election
Based on the election results, Donald Trump has indeed won the 2024 U.S. presidential election, defeating Vice President Kamala Harris. Here’s an analysis of the key statistics and implications:
Electoral College Victory
Donald Trump has secured the presidency by winning crucial battleground states and flipping some key states that were previously held by Democrats. The final Electoral College tally is still being determined, but Trump has surpassed the 270 electoral votes needed to win.
Battleground State Performance
Trump’s victory was largely secured by winning several critical swing states:
- Wisconsin: Trump’s win here was pivotal in securing his path to victory.
- Pennsylvania: This state flipped back to Republican control.
- Georgia: Another key state that Trump managed to win back.
- Michigan: Trump successfully flipped this traditionally Democratic stronghold.
Popular Vote and Voter Priorities
While the final popular vote tally is still being calculated, exit polls provide insight into voter priorities:
- Economy and democracy were top concerns for voters.
- Abortion and immigration also played significant roles in voter decision-making.
Congressional Control
The election results extend beyond the presidency:
- Republicans are set to take back the Senate majority, securing at least 51 seats.
- Control of the House of Representatives remains undetermined.
Media Implications
The outcome of this election could be seen as a challenge to mainstream media narratives for several reasons:
- Polling Discrepancies: Many pre-election polls suggested a tight race or even a slight Harris advantage in key states. Trump’s victory, particularly in battleground states, may indicate that polls underestimated his support.
- Narrative Shifts: Throughout the campaign, much of the mainstream media focused on Trump’s legal challenges and controversies. His victory suggests that these issues may not have resonated with voters as much as economic and policy concerns.
- Voter Priorities: The emphasis on issues like the economy and immigration in voter decision-making may indicate a disconnect between media focus and voter concerns.
- Electoral Predictions: Many mainstream outlets were cautious about predicting a Trump victory, even as results began to favor him. This hesitancy could be seen as a reflection of broader media skepticism about Trump’s chances.
- Underestimation of Trump’s Base: The results suggest that Trump’s core support remained strong and potentially grew, despite negative coverage in much of the mainstream media.
It’s important to note that while the election outcome may challenge some media narratives, it doesn’t necessarily invalidate all mainstream reporting. The complex factors influencing voter behavior and the challenges of accurate political forecasting remain subjects of ongoing analysis and debate.
As the dust settles on this historic election, both the media and political analysts will likely engage in extensive reflection on the factors that led to Trump’s victory and the implications for future political coverage and analysis.
Bolanle Media is excited to announce our partnership with The Newbie Film Academy to offer comprehensive courses designed specifically for aspiring screenwriters. Whether you’re just starting out or looking to enhance your skills, our resources will provide you with the tools and knowledge needed to succeed in the competitive world of screenwriting. Join us today to unlock your creative potential and take your first steps toward crafting compelling stories that resonate with audiences. Let’s turn your ideas into impactful scripts together!
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