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Citizens United anniversary marks expensive start to 2024 election on January 18, 2024 at 11:00 am Business News | The Hill
Nearly 14 years after a controversial Supreme Court case opened the door to unlimited independent spending in federal elections, the U.S. is on track for another election cycle with record-breaking spending.
In the 5-4 decision in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission (FEC) handed down Jan. 21, 2010, the Supreme Court ruled longstanding limits on independent expenditures by corporations, unions and other groups in federal elections violated the First Amendment right to free speech, although they cannot legally coordinate their spending with campaigns.
Citizens United kicked off “a race to the top of the spending charts,” Sarah Bryner, director of research and strategy at the money-in-politics tracking organization OpenSecrets, told The Hill.
AdImpact, a political advertising tracking firm, anticipates $10.2 billion will be spent on political advertising across broadcast, cable, radio, satellite, digital and CTV during the 2024 cycle, which would make it the most expensive in history. AdImpact tracked more than $9 billion in such political expenditures during the 2020 election cycle, the standing record.
Super PACs and other outside groups, which were permitted to spend unlimited amounts of money on elections following the Citizens United ruling, are already outstripping spending in previous election cycles.
Outside groups have dumped nearly $318 million into 2024 presidential and congressional elections as of Sunday, OpenSecrets reported. That top-line figure is more than six times the amount spent through the same period in 2020.
A boom in outside spending since the Citizens United decision has contributed to steadily more expensive elections.
During the 2008 cycle, the last presidential election cycle before 2010 Supreme Court ruling, candidates, political parties and independent outside groups spent $7.1 billion on federal elections, adjusted for inflation, according to OpenSecrets. During the 2020 election cycle, total spending topped $16.4 billion.
The wash of money in politics — and its perceived influence on politicians and the policymaking process — has left many Americans skeptical that their elected representatives are working for them.
More than 70 percent of American adults across ideological and demographic lines think there should be limits on how much money individuals and organizations can spend on elections, according to a recent Pew Research Center study. The D.C.-based think tank surveyed 8,480 adults from July 10 to 16, 2023, and released the data as part of its “Americans’ Dismal Views of the Nation’s Politics” report this past fall.
But Bryner sees negative views of the role of money in politics as “more of a symptom of the kind of polarization and alienation that people feel from politics.”
“We have these legal changes that allow for huge donations by mega donors and by corporations and unions, and then we also have this societal shift where political giving is part of what people think they need to do to be involved and to make change,” Bryner said. “And I think that both of those contribute to these record totals.”
An expensive start to 2024
There’s already a ton of money pouring into the 2024 presidential race.
Campaigns and their affiliated PACs poured more than $120 million into state political ad buys ahead of the Iowa Republican caucuses on Monday, a new record, according to AdImpact data reported by CNBC.
But whether predictions of record-breaking spending come to pass remains to be seen, Bryner said.
“I have been saying the whole time that I think that depends on what happens with this [Republican] primary,” Bryner said. “If [President] Trump wraps up the Republican nomination really fast, there are less opportunities for heavy spending in a lot of these primary contests.”
Trump handily won Iowa, though former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has closed the gap to single digits in New Hampshire, according to polling analysis by Decision Desk HQ/The Hill. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis also remains in the race heading into the GOP primary in New Hampshire next Tuesday.
Ciara Torres-Spelliscy, an associate professor at Stetson University College of Law who specializes in campaign finance and constitutional law, predicts another cycle of record spending if Trump and Biden face off again.
“Both of these candidates are excellent at fundraising and then you’re going to have all of the outside money and dark money trying to influence individuals’ votes,” Torres-Spelliscy said. “I think we’re in for a bumpy ride.”
President Biden’s reelection operation — comprising his campaign, joint fundraising committees and the Democratic National Committee — announced Monday it has $117 million on hand and raked in more than $97 million during the fourth quarter of 2023.
Official year-end filings due to the FEC at the end of January will paint a clearer picture of how much money candidates have on hand heading into the first leg of the 2024 election.
‘Dark money’ fuels negative view of the role of money in politics
An overwhelming majority of Americans — 82 percent — told Pew they think donors have too much influence over decisions made by members of Congress, and 73 percent thought lobbyists and special interest groups hold too much sway.
The explosion of “dark money,” political spending to influence voters without disclosing the source or the funds by groups that do not disclose their donors, after the Citizens United decision may contribute to pessimistic attitudes about who is influencing elected officials.
“You have no idea who is paying to influence those outcomes, and I think it’s also a little bit naive to assume that even though it’s anonymous to the public, it’s anonymous to the recipient,” Bryner said.
OpenSecrets found that of the $9 billion in outside spending between Citizens United and the 2022 election, more than $2.6 billion came from opaque sources.
Perhaps the most sensational recent example was the stunning downfall of Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder of the cryptocurrency exchange platform FTX who publicly contributed $40.7 million to federal Democratic candidates and groups during the 2022 election cycle and allegedly kept his donations to Republicans “dark.”
While independent expenditure groups, like super PACs, are legally required to disclose their donors, contributions from shell companies, nonprofits or straw donors can conceal the true source of the funds.
Dark money groups have also found creative ways to get around reporting their spending to the FEC, including stopping spending within a certain window before an election and avoiding the use of “magic words” calling on voters to support or oppose a candidate that would trigger disclosure.
But Torres-Spelliscy told The Hill she thinks it’s “not fair to blame Citizens United for dark money.”
“Citizens United is actually good on disclosure,” Torres-Spelliscy said, noting the Supreme Court ruled 8-1 to uphold disclosure requirements as part of its decision in Citizens United.
The late conservative stalwart Justice Antonin Scalia, who voted in the majority on Citizens United, agreed the First Amendment does not extend the right to “speak” anonymously in a 2010 opinion in the case of Doe v. Reed.
“Requiring people to stand up in public for their political acts fosters civic courage, without which democracy is doomed,” Scalia wrote. “For my part, I do not look forward to a society which, thanks to the Supreme Court, campaigns anonymously and even exercises the direct democracy of initiative and referendum hidden from public scrutiny and protected from the accountability of criticism. This does not resemble the Home of the Brave.”
Following the Citizens United decision, conservative groups were the first to use dark money aggressively, Issue One Research Director Michael Beckel told The Hill, but liberal groups have caught up in recent years, broadening the practice out across the political spectrum.
“One trend to be paying attention to this year is to what extent both teams are using dark money, or if one team is using it more. Generally in the last few election cycles, we’ve seen both Democrats and Republicans willing to use dark money vehicles. Neither side wants to be left behind in this political money arms race,” Beckel said.
Taylor Giorno previously worked for OpenSecrets.
Business, Campaign, 2024 election, antonin scalia, citizens united, dark money, Democratic NAtional Committee, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Nikki Haley, OpenSecrets, politics, Ron DeSantis, Supreme Court Nearly 14 years after a controversial Supreme Court case opened the door to unlimited independent spending in federal elections, the U.S. is on track for another election cycle with record-breaking spending. In the 5-4 decision in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission (FEC) handed down Jan. 21, 2010, the Supreme Court ruled longstanding limits on…
Business
The Cities Bracing for Trump’s Immigration Crackdown
In the wake of Donald Trump’s recent election victory and his promise of “the largest deportation operation in American history,” several major U.S. cities are bracing for potentially seismic shifts in their economic and social landscapes. As the nation grapples with the implications of this proposed policy, urban centers that have long been havens for immigrant communities find themselves at the epicenter of a looming storm.
Los Angeles, often dubbed the “City of Angels,” stands to lose more than its celestial nickname suggests. As a primary gateway for immigrants, the city’s vibrant tapestry of cultures and its economic engine could face significant disruption. From the bustling streets of Koreatown to the sun-drenched orchards of the Central Valley, the absence of undocumented workers could leave gaping holes in the city’s workforce and cultural identity.
Across the country, New York City, with its iconic skyline and melting pot reputation, faces its own reckoning. The Big Apple’s 5.9 million immigrants, many of whom are undocumented, form the backbone of industries ranging from construction to healthcare. The potential exodus could transform neighborhoods like Jackson Heights and Flushing, altering the very essence of what makes New York a global city.In the Sunshine State, Miami’s tropical allure belies the turbulent times ahead. Home to 2.5 million immigrants, the city’s economy relies heavily on sectors like tourism and hospitality – industries where undocumented workers often fill crucial roles. The potential deportation of these workers could send shockwaves through Miami’s economic ecosystem, from South Beach’s glitzy hotels to the agricultural heartlands of South Florida.
Chicago, the “City of Big Shoulders,” may find those shoulders significantly weakened. With 1.7 million immigrants in its metropolitan area, the Windy City’s diverse neighborhoods and industries face an uncertain future. From the meatpacking plants to the tech startups, Chicago’s economic resilience could be tested like never before.
In the Lone Star State, Houston and Dallas stand as twin testaments to the complexities of immigration policy. These Texas titans, each home to large immigrant populations, could see their booming economies stumble. The construction sites that dot their ever-expanding skylines and the service industries that keep these cities humming could face unprecedented labor shortages.
Out West, the San Francisco Bay Area’s reputation as a bastion of innovation and progress could be challenged. The region’s tech industry, often reliant on immigrant talent, might find itself grappling with a new reality. From Silicon Valley’s coding campuses to the agricultural expanses of the Central Valley, California’s economic powerhouse could face a reckoning. Phoenix, rising from the Sonoran Desert, could see its growth trajectory altered. As Arizona’s urban center, it stands at the forefront of the immigration debate, potentially facing not just economic impacts but social and political upheaval as well.
These cities, along with others like San Diego and Las Vegas, are not just facing potential economic disruptions. They are staring down the barrel of profound social change. Family separations, community fragmentation, and the erosion of cultural enclaves built over generations are all possible consequences of mass deportations. Moreover, the fiscal implications are staggering. Undocumented immigrants contribute billions in taxes annually, often without receiving the full benefits of their contributions. Their sudden absence could leave gaping holes in city budgets, potentially affecting public services and infrastructure projects.
As these urban centers brace for impact, the debate rages on. Supporters of stricter immigration policies argue for the need to enforce laws and protect American jobs. Critics warn of economic devastation and the unraveling of America’s urban fabric. What’s clear is that America’s cities stand at a crossroads. The coming months and years will likely reshape urban landscapes in ways both visible and invisible. From the foods we eat to the services we rely on, from the neighborhoods we call home to the very character of our cities, the impacts of this proposed immigration crackdown could be far-reaching and long-lasting. As the nation watches and waits, these cities – vibrant, diverse, and economically vital – find themselves on the front lines of a policy that could redefine what it means to be an American city in the 21st century.
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How Trump’s Deportation Plans Could Reshape Major Cities
In the wake of Donald Trump’s recent election victory, his ambitious plans for mass deportations have thrust America’s urban centers into the spotlight. As the nation grapples with the potential implications of what Trump calls “the largest deportation operation in American history,” cities across the country are bracing for significant changes that could reshape their economic, social, and cultural landscapes.
The stakes are particularly high for metropolitan areas like New York, Los Angeles, Houston, Dallas, and Miami, which host the largest populations of unauthorized immigrants. These cities, along with other major urban hubs such as Chicago, Washington D.C., and San Francisco, stand at the forefront of a looming transformation that could reverberate throughout the nation.
Economic Tremors
Economists warn that the proposed deportations could send shockwaves through urban economies. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s, cautions that businesses would face “significant challenges” if a substantial number of immigrants were removed. Industries such as construction, hospitality, and healthcare—pillars of urban economies—could face severe labor shortages.
Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, emphasizes the potential ripple effects: “The native-born workforce cannot meet current labor demands.” This labor gap could lead to increased wages, potentially rekindling inflation—a concern that looms large over city planners and policymakers alike.
Community Fabric Under Strain
Beyond economic considerations, the social fabric of cities hangs in the balance. Elena, a Nicaraguan immigrant in Houston, voices a fear echoed in immigrant communities across the nation: “I’m scared… This is my home.” The threat of family separations, particularly in mixed-status households, casts a long shadow over urban neighborhoods.
Immigrant advocacy groups like FIEL are mobilizing, advising clients to prepare for “anything that can happen.” This atmosphere of uncertainty could lead to decreased community engagement and cooperation with local authorities, potentially impacting public safety and community cohesion.
Cities at a Crossroads
As the debate intensifies, cities find themselves at a crossroads. Some, like New York and Los Angeles, have historically positioned themselves as “sanctuary cities,” often at odds with federal immigration enforcement. The impending clash between federal policy and local governance promises to be a defining feature of this new political landscape.
Meanwhile, the logistical challenges of implementing such a massive deportation operation remain daunting. Questions abound regarding detention facilities, transportation networks, and the sheer manpower required to carry out Trump’s vision.
Looking Ahead
As America’s urban centers brace for potential change, the full impact of Trump’s deportation plans remains to be seen. Legal challenges are all but certain, and the resilience of America’s cities will be put to the test.
What is clear is that the coming months and years will be pivotal for urban America. As Jason Miller, a senior Trump adviser, puts it, the plan is to “immediately reinstate” immigration policies from Trump’s first term. For America’s cities, this could mean a period of unprecedented change, challenge, and, potentially, transformation.
As the nation watches and waits, the story of America’s cities in the face of this ambitious deportation plan is just beginning to unfold. The outcome will undoubtedly shape the future of urban life in America for years to come.
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Donald Trump Wins 2024 USA Election
Based on the election results, Donald Trump has indeed won the 2024 U.S. presidential election, defeating Vice President Kamala Harris. Here’s an analysis of the key statistics and implications:
Electoral College Victory
Donald Trump has secured the presidency by winning crucial battleground states and flipping some key states that were previously held by Democrats. The final Electoral College tally is still being determined, but Trump has surpassed the 270 electoral votes needed to win.
Battleground State Performance
Trump’s victory was largely secured by winning several critical swing states:
- Wisconsin: Trump’s win here was pivotal in securing his path to victory.
- Pennsylvania: This state flipped back to Republican control.
- Georgia: Another key state that Trump managed to win back.
- Michigan: Trump successfully flipped this traditionally Democratic stronghold.
Popular Vote and Voter Priorities
While the final popular vote tally is still being calculated, exit polls provide insight into voter priorities:
- Economy and democracy were top concerns for voters.
- Abortion and immigration also played significant roles in voter decision-making.
Congressional Control
The election results extend beyond the presidency:
- Republicans are set to take back the Senate majority, securing at least 51 seats.
- Control of the House of Representatives remains undetermined.
Media Implications
The outcome of this election could be seen as a challenge to mainstream media narratives for several reasons:
- Polling Discrepancies: Many pre-election polls suggested a tight race or even a slight Harris advantage in key states. Trump’s victory, particularly in battleground states, may indicate that polls underestimated his support.
- Narrative Shifts: Throughout the campaign, much of the mainstream media focused on Trump’s legal challenges and controversies. His victory suggests that these issues may not have resonated with voters as much as economic and policy concerns.
- Voter Priorities: The emphasis on issues like the economy and immigration in voter decision-making may indicate a disconnect between media focus and voter concerns.
- Electoral Predictions: Many mainstream outlets were cautious about predicting a Trump victory, even as results began to favor him. This hesitancy could be seen as a reflection of broader media skepticism about Trump’s chances.
- Underestimation of Trump’s Base: The results suggest that Trump’s core support remained strong and potentially grew, despite negative coverage in much of the mainstream media.
It’s important to note that while the election outcome may challenge some media narratives, it doesn’t necessarily invalidate all mainstream reporting. The complex factors influencing voter behavior and the challenges of accurate political forecasting remain subjects of ongoing analysis and debate.
As the dust settles on this historic election, both the media and political analysts will likely engage in extensive reflection on the factors that led to Trump’s victory and the implications for future political coverage and analysis.
Bolanle Media is excited to announce our partnership with The Newbie Film Academy to offer comprehensive courses designed specifically for aspiring screenwriters. Whether you’re just starting out or looking to enhance your skills, our resources will provide you with the tools and knowledge needed to succeed in the competitive world of screenwriting. Join us today to unlock your creative potential and take your first steps toward crafting compelling stories that resonate with audiences. Let’s turn your ideas into impactful scripts together!
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