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Are US, Iran already at war? on January 31, 2024 at 11:26 pm

Published

10 months ago

January 31, 2024

More than 160 attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq, Syria and Jordan, 37 clashes in the Red Sea with the Houthis — and now five dead U.S. service members. America’s mounting proxy battle with Iran over the past three months is spurring questions about whether the countries are at war.

It’s also raising questions about whether the U.S. can continue to hit back at Iranian-backed militia groups without seeking congressional authorization.

The Biden administration argues it has successfully contained the Israeli war against Palestinian militant group Hamas to Gaza and that there is not a wider conflict. But the sheer number of attacks on U.S. forces points to tensions spinning out of control.

“It is already a larger conflict. It’s a question of degrees,” said Robert Murrett, a retired Navy vice admiral. But he said the fighting is “not out of control yet.”

“Calling it a war is probably overstating things,” said Murrett, now a professor at Syracuse University. “But the tensions, the hostilities that exist between Iran and [the U.S.] are at the highest level they’ve been for some time.”

The tit-for-tat battles reached a boiling point after a Sunday attack in Jordan, which the U.S. has said likely came from an Iranian-backed militia group in Iraq, Kata’ib Hezbollah. A suicide drone exploded in a housing unit at the Tower 22 base near Iraq and Syria, killing three Army soldiers.

The U.S. also lost two sailors during a covert mission off the coast of Somalia to intercept Iranian missiles bound for the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen. While the mission was a success, two sailors died after falling into the rough waters.

The deaths sparked mourning across the U.S. and calls for more action, particularly among Republicans, some who urged Biden to strike back inside Iran.

Washington is already deploying significant resources to defend ships in the Red Sea from the Houthis and to carry out airstrikes in Yemen and Iraq, none of which have deterred the militia groups from stopping their attacks.

The latest Houthi attack came Tuesday night, when a cruise missile launched from Yemen into the Red Sea came within a mile of a U.S. destroyer before it was shot down — the closest such an attack has come to an American vessel, CNN reported.

And U.S. forces on Wednesday morning destroyed a Houthi surface-to-air missile that the group was preparing to launch into the waterway, U.S. Central Command said in a statement.

Even the Biden administration admits the situation is veering dangerously close to a powder keg moment. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Monday warned that the “incredibly volatile” environment in the Middle East is as dangerous as it’s been in the region “since at least 1973, and arguably even before that.”

President Biden has vowed to respond to the Jordan attacks, but the commander-in-chief also stressed he was trying to prevent the conflict from escalating.

“I don’t think we need a wider war in the Middle East,” Biden told reporters Tuesday. “That’s not what I’m looking for.”

When asked if the wider war was already here, Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh said she was “not discounting that tensions are high in the region by any means.”

“These Iranian backed groups are targeting our military members with the intention of trying to kill them,” she said at a Monday briefing. “But we don’t seek a war.”

Iran also appears to be trying to pull away from a growing conflict. Iranian officials quickly denied any responsibility for the Jordan attack, claiming that Tehran does not give direct orders to the militia groups it backs.

Dangerous direction

Besides the Jordan attack, the fighting has largely been limited to proportional responses and tit-for-tat attacks, analysts say — but they also fear the conflict will soon reach a tipping point.

Sina Azodi, a professional lecturer of international affairs at George Washington University, compared it to World War I, when European countries did not seek a major war but the events spun out of control.

“Space for diplomatic maneuvering is shrinking and Iran and the U.S. are dangerously on a pathway to a conflict,” he said. “Neither Iranians nor the Americans are interested in having a direct conflict. It is an existential threat for Iran to fight the U.S. It’s also quite costly for the United States to fight Iran directly.”

“Neither side is interested, but my concern is they’re being pushed into that direction without actually wanting a conflict,” Azodi added.

While there is no direct fighting between American troops and Iranian fighters, the U.S. says Iran is broadly complicit for supporting its proxies. And Iran is being pulled into the conflict more directly as well.

Israel assassinated a high-ranking Iranian official in December in Syria. And an Israeli strike in January killed five Iranian officers, also in Syria.

Iran has not sat idly by during the fighting. Tehran in early January carried out direct strikes on what it said was an Israeli spy base in Iraq.

The Iranian-backed groups have tied their mission against U.S. forces to America’s support for Israel in its devastating war on Hamas. The death toll in Gaza has now topped 26,000 Palestinians, including what Israel says is thousands of Hamas fighters.

Many experts believe a ceasefire is the only way to stop the Middle East fighting for good, but ongoing diplomatic negotiations appear to be at an impasse.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said this week he will not allow for a permanent ceasefire in the war to annihilate Hamas. And Hamas officials issued statements saying they will only return the roughly 130 hostages in Gaza for a lasting ceasefire.

Others aren’t convinced a ceasefire would quell Houthi attacks.

“Based on my analysis and that of my team . . . even if the Israel-Gaza situation ended today with a complete resolution that was mutually agreeable to all parties involved, the Houthis will continue to attack shipping,” said Ian Ralby, CEO of I.R. Consilium, a company that specializes in maritime law and security and strategy.

Speaking before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee on Tuesday, Ralby said 100 percent of the Houthis’ ballistic missile capabilities could be taken out and the group would still attack shipping lanes.

The pending U.S. attack in retaliation for the deaths in Jordan will likely lead to another round of hostilities. Iran has vowed to respond decisively to any U.S. actions.

But Iran’s response will largely depend on how Biden responds. Paul Eaton, a retired U.S. major general, said Biden could effectively halt most of the fighting with a forceful hit outside of Iran, pointing to the 2020 American strike against Iranian Gen. Qasem Soleimani in Iraq, which he said sent a “big message.”

“We can make it clear to the Iranians that there’s no future in persisting and that we’re not leaving,” he said. “And we can turn that region into a very lonely place for Iran and their proxies.”

Authorization fight

At some point, Biden will have to go to Congress to seek authorization to continue the fighting against the militia groups.

The president has constitutional authority to carry out strikes and take military action in self-defense from attacks on American troops and assets.

The 1973 War Powers Act puts restraints on that authority, requiring the president to seek approval from Congress, which alone has the power to declare war, within 60 days of military action beginning.

The Iranian-backed groups first launched their attacks in late October, but more decisive U.S. retaliatory action started only in the past two months.

Still, the 60-day limit is more of a loose rule than a fixed one, meaning lawmakers may not press Biden unless the conflict drags on for several more months or longer, said Frank Galgano, a retired U.S. Army soldier and Villanova University professor.

“At some point, theoretically, national command authority exceeds its authority to basically run an undeclared war against the Houthis,” he said. “If this keeps going on for six months or a year [Biden] is going to have to explain to somebody what he’s doing.”

On Capitol Hill, the strikes on the Houthis in Yemen are already spurring concerns among lawmakers, some of whom have asked the White House to clarify the justification to hit the rebel group.

In the House, 27 lawmakers — on the far left and far right of the political spectrum — joined forces to question the Biden administration’s targeting of the Houthis and accuse him of violating the power of Congress to declare war.

“We urge your administration to seek authorization from Congress before involving the U.S. in another conflict in the Middle East,” the lawmakers wrote last week.

A bipartisan group of senators argued in a letter to Biden that any claim of self-defense was a stretch, as Houthis are mainly targeting foreign ships and commercial shipping, and the U.S. has repeatedly called it an international problem.

The Pentagon said it is working off a United Nations charter article that gives an “inherent right of individual or collective self-defence if an armed attack occurs against a member of the United Nations” for nations, at least until the Security Council takes action.

Galgano said anti-piracy laws at the U.N. and in other maritime organizations may be able to justify action against the rebel group, even on land-based targets.

“This represents a form of piracy,” he said. “The Houthis are not interested in robbing ships, unlike the Somali pirates or somebody else. But the idea is to create pressure and economic pain on the West, which is what [the Houthis are] doing at the behest of the Iranians.”

Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) when asked if the White needs to come to Congress for authorization before responding to attack, said “ it’s all circumstantial, like it depends on the nature and the timing of the response.”

“The president has an Article 2 authority to defend U.S. forces. He then has a war powers obligation to notify Congress,” he said.

“I think I’m waiting for the response from the administration.”

Business

The Cities Bracing for Trump’s Immigration Crackdown

Published

2 weeks ago

November 8, 2024

Bolanle Media Staff

In the wake of Donald Trump’s recent election victory and his promise of “the largest deportation operation in American history,” several major U.S. cities are bracing for potentially seismic shifts in their economic and social landscapes. As the nation grapples with the implications of this proposed policy, urban centers that have long been havens for immigrant communities find themselves at the epicenter of a looming storm.

Los Angeles, often dubbed the “City of Angels,” stands to lose more than its celestial nickname suggests. As a primary gateway for immigrants, the city’s vibrant tapestry of cultures and its economic engine could face significant disruption. From the bustling streets of Koreatown to the sun-drenched orchards of the Central Valley, the absence of undocumented workers could leave gaping holes in the city’s workforce and cultural identity.

Across the country, New York City, with its iconic skyline and melting pot reputation, faces its own reckoning. The Big Apple’s 5.9 million immigrants, many of whom are undocumented, form the backbone of industries ranging from construction to healthcare. The potential exodus could transform neighborhoods like Jackson Heights and Flushing, altering the very essence of what makes New York a global city.In the Sunshine State, Miami’s tropical allure belies the turbulent times ahead. Home to 2.5 million immigrants, the city’s economy relies heavily on sectors like tourism and hospitality – industries where undocumented workers often fill crucial roles. The potential deportation of these workers could send shockwaves through Miami’s economic ecosystem, from South Beach’s glitzy hotels to the agricultural heartlands of South Florida.

Chicago, the “City of Big Shoulders,” may find those shoulders significantly weakened. With 1.7 million immigrants in its metropolitan area, the Windy City’s diverse neighborhoods and industries face an uncertain future. From the meatpacking plants to the tech startups, Chicago’s economic resilience could be tested like never before.

In the Lone Star State, Houston and Dallas stand as twin testaments to the complexities of immigration policy. These Texas titans, each home to large immigrant populations, could see their booming economies stumble. The construction sites that dot their ever-expanding skylines and the service industries that keep these cities humming could face unprecedented labor shortages.

Out West, the San Francisco Bay Area’s reputation as a bastion of innovation and progress could be challenged. The region’s tech industry, often reliant on immigrant talent, might find itself grappling with a new reality. From Silicon Valley’s coding campuses to the agricultural expanses of the Central Valley, California’s economic powerhouse could face a reckoning. Phoenix, rising from the Sonoran Desert, could see its growth trajectory altered. As Arizona’s urban center, it stands at the forefront of the immigration debate, potentially facing not just economic impacts but social and political upheaval as well.

These cities, along with others like San Diego and Las Vegas, are not just facing potential economic disruptions. They are staring down the barrel of profound social change. Family separations, community fragmentation, and the erosion of cultural enclaves built over generations are all possible consequences of mass deportations. Moreover, the fiscal implications are staggering. Undocumented immigrants contribute billions in taxes annually, often without receiving the full benefits of their contributions. Their sudden absence could leave gaping holes in city budgets, potentially affecting public services and infrastructure projects.

As these urban centers brace for impact, the debate rages on. Supporters of stricter immigration policies argue for the need to enforce laws and protect American jobs. Critics warn of economic devastation and the unraveling of America’s urban fabric. What’s clear is that America’s cities stand at a crossroads. The coming months and years will likely reshape urban landscapes in ways both visible and invisible. From the foods we eat to the services we rely on, from the neighborhoods we call home to the very character of our cities, the impacts of this proposed immigration crackdown could be far-reaching and long-lasting. As the nation watches and waits, these cities – vibrant, diverse, and economically vital – find themselves on the front lines of a policy that could redefine what it means to be an American city in the 21st century.

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Business

How Trump’s Deportation Plans Could Reshape Major Cities

Published

2 weeks ago

November 8, 2024

Bolanle Media Staff

In the wake of Donald Trump’s recent election victory, his ambitious plans for mass deportations have thrust America’s urban centers into the spotlight. As the nation grapples with the potential implications of what Trump calls “the largest deportation operation in American history,” cities across the country are bracing for significant changes that could reshape their economic, social, and cultural landscapes.

The stakes are particularly high for metropolitan areas like New York, Los Angeles, Houston, Dallas, and Miami, which host the largest populations of unauthorized immigrants. These cities, along with other major urban hubs such as Chicago, Washington D.C., and San Francisco, stand at the forefront of a looming transformation that could reverberate throughout the nation.

Economic Tremors

Economists warn that the proposed deportations could send shockwaves through urban economies. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s, cautions that businesses would face “significant challenges” if a substantial number of immigrants were removed. Industries such as construction, hospitality, and healthcare—pillars of urban economies—could face severe labor shortages.

Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, emphasizes the potential ripple effects: “The native-born workforce cannot meet current labor demands.” This labor gap could lead to increased wages, potentially rekindling inflation—a concern that looms large over city planners and policymakers alike.

Community Fabric Under Strain

Beyond economic considerations, the social fabric of cities hangs in the balance. Elena, a Nicaraguan immigrant in Houston, voices a fear echoed in immigrant communities across the nation: “I’m scared… This is my home.” The threat of family separations, particularly in mixed-status households, casts a long shadow over urban neighborhoods.

Immigrant advocacy groups like FIEL are mobilizing, advising clients to prepare for “anything that can happen.” This atmosphere of uncertainty could lead to decreased community engagement and cooperation with local authorities, potentially impacting public safety and community cohesion.

Cities at a Crossroads

As the debate intensifies, cities find themselves at a crossroads. Some, like New York and Los Angeles, have historically positioned themselves as “sanctuary cities,” often at odds with federal immigration enforcement. The impending clash between federal policy and local governance promises to be a defining feature of this new political landscape.

Meanwhile, the logistical challenges of implementing such a massive deportation operation remain daunting. Questions abound regarding detention facilities, transportation networks, and the sheer manpower required to carry out Trump’s vision.

Looking Ahead

As America’s urban centers brace for potential change, the full impact of Trump’s deportation plans remains to be seen. Legal challenges are all but certain, and the resilience of America’s cities will be put to the test.

What is clear is that the coming months and years will be pivotal for urban America. As Jason Miller, a senior Trump adviser, puts it, the plan is to “immediately reinstate” immigration policies from Trump’s first term. For America’s cities, this could mean a period of unprecedented change, challenge, and, potentially, transformation.

As the nation watches and waits, the story of America’s cities in the face of this ambitious deportation plan is just beginning to unfold. The outcome will undoubtedly shape the future of urban life in America for years to come.

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Business

Donald Trump Wins 2024 USA Election

Published

2 weeks ago

November 6, 2024

Bolanle Media Staff

Based on the election results, Donald Trump has indeed won the 2024 U.S. presidential election, defeating Vice President Kamala Harris. Here’s an analysis of the key statistics and implications:

Electoral College Victory

Donald Trump has secured the presidency by winning crucial battleground states and flipping some key states that were previously held by Democrats. The final Electoral College tally is still being determined, but Trump has surpassed the 270 electoral votes needed to win.

Battleground State Performance

Trump’s victory was largely secured by winning several critical swing states:

Wisconsin: Trump’s win here was pivotal in securing his path to victory.
Pennsylvania: This state flipped back to Republican control.
Georgia: Another key state that Trump managed to win back.
Michigan: Trump successfully flipped this traditionally Democratic stronghold.

Popular Vote and Voter Priorities

While the final popular vote tally is still being calculated, exit polls provide insight into voter priorities:

Economy and democracy were top concerns for voters.
Abortion and immigration also played significant roles in voter decision-making.

Congressional Control

The election results extend beyond the presidency:

Republicans are set to take back the Senate majority, securing at least 51 seats.
Control of the House of Representatives remains undetermined.

Media Implications

The outcome of this election could be seen as a challenge to mainstream media narratives for several reasons:

Polling Discrepancies: Many pre-election polls suggested a tight race or even a slight Harris advantage in key states. Trump’s victory, particularly in battleground states, may indicate that polls underestimated his support.
Narrative Shifts: Throughout the campaign, much of the mainstream media focused on Trump’s legal challenges and controversies. His victory suggests that these issues may not have resonated with voters as much as economic and policy concerns.
Voter Priorities: The emphasis on issues like the economy and immigration in voter decision-making may indicate a disconnect between media focus and voter concerns.
Electoral Predictions: Many mainstream outlets were cautious about predicting a Trump victory, even as results began to favor him. This hesitancy could be seen as a reflection of broader media skepticism about Trump’s chances.
Underestimation of Trump’s Base: The results suggest that Trump’s core support remained strong and potentially grew, despite negative coverage in much of the mainstream media.

It’s important to note that while the election outcome may challenge some media narratives, it doesn’t necessarily invalidate all mainstream reporting. The complex factors influencing voter behavior and the challenges of accurate political forecasting remain subjects of ongoing analysis and debate.

As the dust settles on this historic election, both the media and political analysts will likely engage in extensive reflection on the factors that led to Trump’s victory and the implications for future political coverage and analysis.