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Russia launches its offensive with all eyes on Ukraine’s southern push on August 13, 2023 at 12:00 pm

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With the world’s attention on Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the south, Russia has quietly launched a new offensive in the eastern Luhansk region, which analysts say is aimed at undermining the Ukrainian operation.

While the operation is much smaller in size and scope than Moscow’s winter offensive, Russia is making some progress and appears to be narrowing in on the city of Kupyansk, where Ukraine ordered an evacuation this week.

The Russian advance could pressure Ukraine amid a major offensive of its own and divide its attention. Any success could also paint a politically beneficial contrast with Ukraine’s slow-moving counteroffensive in the southeastern Zaporizhzhia region.

Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, doubted Russia can advance. But if it does, he said it would be a significant blow to Ukraine at a perilous moment.

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“This is something worth keeping an eye on. If the Russians make some progress here, then this is a really big deal,” Cancian said. “It would be devastating to Ukraine’s narrative about the counteroffensive if the Russians were able to capture Luhansk — which I don’t think they can.

“But if they’re able to do that at a time when the Ukrainian counteroffensive was hung up in the defensive zone, that would be a very powerful failure and I think very discouraging to Western supporters,” he added. 

Moscow’s winter offensive culminated at the end of March and Russian forces have since concentrated on defense against Ukraine’s counteroffensive. But Russia has never completely stopped its offensive operations, continuing a steady array of limited attacks across the 600-mile front in eastern Ukraine.

The Luhansk advance has picked up speed since mid-July, with fighting reportedly taking place mostly in rural and open fields, similar to the southern Zaporizhzhia region but in less populated areas.

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Russia made rapid gains this week toward Kupyansk, a city in the Kharkiv region that lies just beyond Luhansk that, if taken, would consolidate Russian control of the area. The city was taken by Moscow in the early days of the war before Ukrainian forces recaptured it in a lightning advance last fall.

Earlier this week, Russia reportedly moved within artillery range northeast of the city. Evacuations were ordered in dozens of settlements near Kupyansk as Russian forces approached within miles of the city. The fight is far from over because Russian forces face more defenses and would have to cross the Oksil River to fully capture Kupyansk.

Russian military bloggers and state-run news sites have covered the news relentlessly in the past week, trying to paint a grim picture for Ukraine, which Russia’s Defense Ministry reports has lost dozens of troops in the past few days.

Popular Russian military blogger Alexander Kots on Telegram said Ukraine was dispersing its troops in a hurried attempt to defend against the advance. “I look at the progress map in this direction and feel cautious optimism,” wrote Kots. “Now the Armed Forces of Ukraine are in a position that is not very advantageous for them.”

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Ukrainian officials have confirmed attacks are intensifying near Kupyansk and that they are moving to defend against them. Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar described “intense” attacks but said defenses were holding.

Russia is also moving in from Kreminna in Luhansk toward the city of Lyman in the Donetsk region. Lyman, south of Kupyansk, is another major target in Moscow’s efforts to stabilize its power in the east. 

Igor Zhdanov, an international correspondent for state-run news agency RT, said Russian “fighters managed to penetrate the enemy defenses” in a battle inside a forest and natural preserve near Lyman.

“A really serious defensive line has fallen, which for many months fettered our actions on this sector of the front,” he wrote on Telegram.

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Despite the reports, Western military analysts are skeptical Russia has the capabilities to make any significant progress after exhausting manpower, munitions and resources in a costly war of attrition to take the city of Bakhmut over the spring. 

Aram Shabanian, an open-source information gathering manager for the think tank New Lines Institute, said Russia has made gains but was “not capturing major cities or overrunning Ukrainian positions.”

“They’re trying to force the Ukrainians to draw their forces to a different battlefield, while simultaneously probing to see where there are weaknesses,” he said, but “they’re not making great advances at the moment.”

Shabanian also stressed Russia has spent most of its resources and is unlikely to be able to muster any significant offensive operation until next year, an assessment shared by most war analysts.

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“They’ve reached their high-water mark, and from here on out, it’s going to be a grinding fight,” he said. “But the Ukrainian side of the war is going to get more advanced technology and weapons, while the Russians dig further and further into the reserves, [and] it’s going to be harder and harder for the Russians to meaningfully take land at this point.”

Russia controls most of Luhansk already, so seizing the rest of the region would be a political victory for Russian President Vladimir Putin. It would also put his troops in a better position to occupy the rest of the Donbas, made up of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions.

Luhansk, however, is not as strategically vital as the southern Zaporizhzhia region, which connects the Russian mainland to the Crimean Peninsula and is situated on major bodies of water such as the Sea of Azov.

Branislav Slantchev, a professor studying the war at the University of California, San Diego, said a Russian success in Luhansk wouldn’t dramatically change the war. He said the Kupyansk push was “obviously designed to break up the Ukrainian offensive.”

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“The goal is kind of an attempt to threaten the Ukrainians enough with a breakthrough to make the Ukrainians … draw forces away from the south,” he said. “But all the action strategically is in the south. This is what the Russians care about. They care about protecting Crimea. They care about protecting the land routes, they care about the access to the Black Sea.”

But Putin is also hoping to buy time, hoping that Western support for Ukraine cracks. And taking Luhansk would undoubtedly send a powerful message that his army is triumphing while Ukraine visibly struggles in the south.

Maksym Skrypchenko, the president of the Transatlantic Dialogue Center, a nonprofit advising Ukraine’s government, expressed fears of the political cost of a Russian victory in Luhansk — though he’s confident in Ukraine’s defenses.

“Moscow is trying to make our Western alliance rethink their approach towards giving Ukraine more and more weapons,” he said. “But still, I don’t think that we will see any solid Russian advance soon because they ran out of human resources.”

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​ With the world’s attention on Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the south, Russia has quietly launched a new offensive in the eastern Luhansk region, which analysts say is aimed at undermining the Ukrainian operation. While the operation is much smaller in size and scope than Moscow’s winter offensive, Russia is making some progress and appears to be… 

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Politics

Will Kim Ju Ae Become North Korea’s First Female Leader?

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A New Face of Power in Pyongyang

In a country defined by secrecy and dynastic rule, the recent emergence of Kim Ju Ae—the daughter of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un—on the national and international stage has sparked intense speculation about the future of the world’s most isolated regime. For the first time since North Korea’s founding in 1948, the possibility of a female leader is being openly discussed, as state media and public ceremonies increasingly feature the teenage girl at her father’s side.

Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead

Kim Ju Ae’s Rise to Prominence

Kim Ju Ae, believed to be around 12 or 13 years old, first came to the world’s attention in 2013 when former NBA star Dennis Rodman revealed he had held Kim Jong Un’s daughter during a visit to Pyongyang. However, she remained out of the public eye until November 2022, when she appeared beside her father at the launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile—a powerful symbol in North Korean propaganda.

Since then, Ju Ae has become a regular fixture at high-profile events, from military parades and weapons launches to the grand opening of a water park and the unveiling of new naval ships. Her repeated appearances are unprecedented for a member of the Kim family so young, especially a girl, and have led South Korean intelligence officials to suggest she is being groomed as her father’s successor.

The Power of Propaganda

North Korea’s state media has shifted its language regarding Ju Ae, referring to her as “beloved” and, more recently, “respected”—a term previously reserved for the nation’s highest dignitaries. Analysts believe this is part of a carefully orchestrated campaign to build her public profile and legitimize her as a future leader, signaling continuity and stability for the regime.

Presenting Ju Ae as the face of the next generation serves several purposes:

  • Demonstrating dynastic continuity: By showcasing his daughter, Kim Jong Un assures elites and the public that the Kim family’s grip on power will persist.
  • Minimizing internal threats: A young female successor is less likely to attract rival factions or pose an immediate threat to the current leadership.
  • Projecting a modern image: Her presence at both military and civilian events signals adaptability and a potential shift in North Korea’s traditionally patriarchal leadership structure.

Breaking with Tradition?

If Ju Ae is indeed being positioned as the next leader, it would mark a historic break from North Korea’s deeply patriarchal system. The country has never had a female ruler, and its military and political elite remain overwhelmingly male. However, her growing public profile and the respect shown to her by senior officials suggest that the regime is preparing the nation for the possibility of her ascension.

The only other woman with significant visibility and influence in the regime is Kim Yo Jong, Kim Jong Un’s younger sister, who has become a powerful figure in her own right, especially in matters of propaganda and foreign policy.

A Nation Divided, a Dynasty Endures

While the Kim family’s hold on North Korea appears unshakable, the country remains divided from South Korea by a heavily militarized border. Many families have been separated for generations, with little hope for reunification in the near future. As the Kim dynasty prepares its next generation for leadership, the longing for family reunions and peace persists on both sides of the border.

The Road Ahead

Kim Ju Ae’s future remains shrouded in mystery, much like the country she may one day lead. Her carefully managed public appearances, the reverence shown by state media, and her father’s apparent efforts to secure her place in the succession line all point to a regime intent on preserving its legacy while adapting to new realities. Whether North Korea is truly ready for its first female leader is uncertain, but the groundwork is clearly being laid for a new chapter in the Kim dynasty.

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Business

Pros and Cons of the Big Beautiful Bill

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The “Big Beautiful Bill” (officially the One Big Beautiful Bill Act) is a sweeping tax and spending package passed in July 2025. It makes permanent many Trump-era tax cuts, introduces new tax breaks for working Americans, and enacts deep cuts to federal safety-net programs. The bill also increases spending on border security and defense, while rolling back clean energy incentives and tightening requirements for social programs.

Pros

1. Tax Relief for Middle and Working-Class Families

2. Support for Small Businesses and Economic Growth

  • Makes the small business deduction permanent, supporting Main Street businesses.
  • Expands expensing for investment in short-lived assets and domestic R&D, which is considered pro-growth.

3. Increased Spending on Security and Infrastructure

4. Simplification and Fairness in the Tax Code

  • Expands the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and raises marginal rates on individuals earning over $400,000.
  • Closes various deductions and loopholes, especially those benefiting private equity and multinational corporations.

Cons

1. Deep Cuts to Social Safety Net Programs

  • Cuts Medicaid by approximately $930 billion and imposes new work requirements, which could leave millions without health insurance.
  • Tightens eligibility and work requirements for SNAP (food assistance), potentially removing benefits from many low-income families.
  • Rolls back student loan forgiveness and repeals Biden-era subsidies.

2. Increases the Federal Deficit

  • The bill is projected to add $3.3–4 trillion to the federal deficit over 10 years.
  • Critics argue that the combination of tax cuts and increased spending is fiscally irresponsible.

3. Benefits Skewed Toward the Wealthy

  • The largest income gains go to affluent Americans, with top earners seeing significant after-tax increases.
  • Critics describe the bill as the largest upward transfer of wealth in recent U.S. history.

4. Rollback of Clean Energy and Climate Incentives

5. Potential Harm to Healthcare and Rural Hospitals

6. Public and Political Backlash

  • The bill is unpopular in public polls and is seen as a political risk for its supporters.
  • Critics warn it will widen the gap between rich and poor and reverse progress on alternative energy and healthcare.

Summary Table

ProsCons
Permanent middle-class tax cutsDeep Medicaid and SNAP cuts
No tax on tips/overtime for most workersMillions may lose health insurance
Doubled Child Tax CreditAdds $3.3–4T to deficit
Small business supportBenefits skewed to wealthy
Increased border/defense spendingClean energy incentives eliminated
Simplifies some tax provisionsThreatens rural hospitals
Public backlash, political risk

In summary:
The Big Beautiful Bill delivers significant tax relief and new benefits for many working and middle-class Americans, but it does so at the cost of deep cuts to social programs, a higher federal deficit, and reduced support for clean energy and healthcare. The bill is highly polarizing, with supporters touting its pro-growth and pro-family provisions, while critics warn of increased inequality and harm to vulnerable populations.

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Business

Trump Threatens to ‘Take a Look’ at Deporting Elon Musk Amid Explosive Feud

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The escalating conflict between President Donald Trump and Elon Musk reached a new peak this week, as Trump publicly suggested he would consider deporting the billionaire entrepreneur in response to Musk’s fierce criticism of the president’s signature tax and spending bill.

FILE PHOTO: Tesla CEO Elon Musk arrives on the red carpet for the automobile awards “Das Goldene Lenkrad” (The golden steering wheel) given by a German newspaper in Berlin, Germany, November 12, 2019. REUTERS/Hannibal Hanschke/File Photo

“I don’t know, we’ll have to take a look,” Trump told reporters on Tuesday when asked directly if he would deport Musk, who was born in South Africa but has been a U.S. citizen since 2002.

This threat followed a late-night post on Trump’s Truth Social platform, where he accused Musk of being the largest recipient of government subsidies in U.S. history. Trump claimed that without these supports, Musk “would likely have to shut down operations and return to South Africa,” and that ending such subsidies would mean “no more rocket launches, satellites, or electric vehicle production, and our nation would save a FORTUNE”.

Trump also invoked the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)—a federal agency Musk previously led—as a potential tool to scrutinize Musk’s companies. “We might have to put DOGE on Elon. You know what DOGE is? The DOGE is the monster that might have to go back and eat Elon,” Trump remarked, further intensifying the feud.

Background to the Feud

The rupture comes after Musk’s repeated attacks on Trump’s so-called “Big, Beautiful Bill,” a comprehensive spending and tax reform proposal that Musk has labeled a “disgusting abomination” and a threat to the nation’s fiscal health. Musk, once a Trump ally who contributed heavily to his election campaign and served as a government advisor, has called for the formation of a new political party, claiming the bill exposes the need for an alternative to the current two-party system.

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In response, Trump’s allies have amplified questions about Musk’s citizenship and immigration history, with some suggesting an investigation into his naturalization process. However, legal experts note that deporting a naturalized U.S. citizen like Musk would be extremely difficult. The only path would involve denaturalization—a rare and complex legal process requiring proof of intentional fraud during the citizenship application, a standard typically reserved for the most egregious cases.

Political Fallout

Musk’s criticism has rattled some Republican lawmakers, who fear the feud could undermine their party’s unity ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Meanwhile, Musk has doubled down on his opposition, warning he will support primary challengers against Republicans who back Trump’s bill.

Key Points:

As the dispute continues, it has become a flashpoint in the broader debate over government spending, corporate subsidies, and political loyalty at the highest levels of American power.

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