Business
Democrats question whether it’s the economy anymore, stupid on August 11, 2023 at 8:00 am Business News | The Hill
It’s the economy, stupid.
For decades, that’s been seen as a sound political strategy behind every effective presidential campaign.
Focus on the economy and people’s pocketbooks — and get some good luck in terms of how the economy is actually running when you run for office — and voila: You get elected to the White House, and you win reelection.
The question a growing number of Democrats are asking, however, is whether that’s still the case, as President Biden deals with stronger economic numbers but low approval ratings.
At a time of ever-greater political polarization, when abortion rights is the hot election issue of the day and former President Trump continues to shadow and change the American political landscape, is it still the economy, stupid?
Even Democratic strategist James Carville, who coined the phrase, has acknowledged some doubts.
“Well, I’ve always thought so,” Carville, 78, said last week to CNN’s Wolf Blitzer when he was asked point-blank if he still believed the political philosophy for which he’ll be remembered.
“I’m starting to doubt myself a little bit, because this economy is quite good. Maybe it will kick in. And sometimes it takes a while for people to feel it,” he said.
In an interview with The Hill, Carville said he generally still believes that yes, it is the economy, stupid.
But he expressed a mixture of frustration and exasperation that Biden’s approval ratings remain stuck in the low 40s, even as unemployment is at a historic low and inflation has fallen.
“The economic bounce back, it was had by any measure … but, for whatever reason, people are not connecting this, [they] don’t think that economy’s that good,” Carville told The Hill. “To the extent they think it’s good, they’re not giving the president’s policies very much credit for it.”
“I can understand how these guys are disheartened,” he said of the White House. “So you wonder, well, why this disconnect?”
A number of presidents have also been punished by voters for either a faltering economy or the perception it is poor, from Democratic President Jimmy Carter to GOP President George H.W. Bush.
The economy was a terrible headwind on Republican John McCain’s presidential campaign in 2008, though voter fatigue with foreign wars and Democrat Barack Obama’s star power were also negative factors for him.
Obama inherited a difficult economy, and Democrats were famously shellacked in the 2010 midterms amid deep voter anger over a recession and government spending. But in 2012, Obama was able to win reelection, in part by convincing voters he better understood their economic problems than Republican candidate Mitt Romney.
The political scene has changed dramatically since 2012, with Republicans and Democrats even more firmly in their tribal camps in the Trump era. That has coincided with questions, at least, about the role of the economy in elections.
As recently as the 2022 midterms, Republicans expected to rally to big wins in House and Senate races amid polls showing voters greatly unhappy with the state of the economy. Instead, other issues — particularly abortion, in the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v. Wade, seemed much more determinative.
Republicans did win back the House majority, but with a much smaller margin than expected. They failed to win back the Senate.
The economy seems much better today than even a year ago, yet it is not helping Biden — at least yet.
“I think some of it is, there’s just so much built up on how bad the economy was, the struggle the economy was in, are recessions coming? I think that’s a hard bell to unring,” Carville said.
Bruce Mehlman, former assistant secretary at the Commerce Department under President George W. Bush, said the economy seems less of a factor today than it once did.
“Over the past two decades, traditional economic metrics have increasingly detached from presidential approval numbers and right-track or wrong-track sentiment, with the 2022 midterms the ultimate example,” said Mehlman, a founding partner at Mehlman Consulting. “The data screamed ‘giant wave,’ but many anxious voters preferred known incumbents over frightening disruptors.”
Josh Bivens, research director at the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute, said his “gut” tells him Biden may eventually benefit from the economy.
He predicted that with 3 to 4 percent inflation or lower and consistent low unemployment for another year could lead to higher ratings for Biden. Unemployment currently sits at just 3.6 percent.
“The ratchet-up of inflation in 2021 and early 2022 very much unsettled people, and they are only now really recognizing that the ratchet has started to reverse pretty decisively,” Bivens said.
Republicans have shifted their messaging to a degree.
While they still argue the economy is struggling under Biden, they are focusing their political attacks on Biden’s son, Hunter Biden, and corruption. Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) has indicated that House Republicans may move forward with an impeachment inquiry based on the president and his family’s business dealings.
The White House, for its part, has stepped up its arguments for Biden’s economic stewardship, arguing that Bidenomics is showing its effectiveness.
They’ve also lambasted Republicans for their focus on other issues.
“Instead of pursuing this shameless and baseless impeachment stunt, House Republicans and Speaker McCarthy should join the President to work on continuing to bring down inflation and lower costs, create jobs, and grow the economy,” Ian Sams, a spokesperson for the White House Counsel’s Office, said Tuesday. “That is, after all, what the American people sent their leaders to Washington to do.”
Biden is traveling to Arizona, New Mexico and Utah this week to discuss his economic agenda and the Inflation Reduction Act, which is the Democrats’ major climate and tax bill. Republicans bashed the trip to Arizona on Tuesday as a stop on “Biden’s Bankrupting America Tour.”
“Americans aren’t buying the lies Biden tells about Bidenomics – they can’t afford it,” RNC chairwoman Ronna McDaniel said in a statement.
Polls show the public has doubts about Biden on the economy.
Only 34 percent of Americans in a Monmouth University poll last month said they approve of his handling of inflation, and Biden received a split rating on his handling of jobs and unemployment, with 47 percent approving and 48 percent disapproving of it.
Carville remains a loyal Democrat and said he’s hopeful the White House is right that public sentiment will catch up to what he views as a strong economy.
“They project a lot of confidence,” Carville said. “For the sake of a lot of things, I hope they’re right.”
Administration, Business It’s the economy, stupid. For decades, that’s been seen as a sound political strategy behind every effective presidential campaign. Focus on the economy and people’s pocketbooks — and get some good luck in terms of how the economy is actually running when you run for office — and voila: You get elected to the White…
Business
The Cities Bracing for Trump’s Immigration Crackdown
In the wake of Donald Trump’s recent election victory and his promise of “the largest deportation operation in American history,” several major U.S. cities are bracing for potentially seismic shifts in their economic and social landscapes. As the nation grapples with the implications of this proposed policy, urban centers that have long been havens for immigrant communities find themselves at the epicenter of a looming storm.
Los Angeles, often dubbed the “City of Angels,” stands to lose more than its celestial nickname suggests. As a primary gateway for immigrants, the city’s vibrant tapestry of cultures and its economic engine could face significant disruption. From the bustling streets of Koreatown to the sun-drenched orchards of the Central Valley, the absence of undocumented workers could leave gaping holes in the city’s workforce and cultural identity.
Across the country, New York City, with its iconic skyline and melting pot reputation, faces its own reckoning. The Big Apple’s 5.9 million immigrants, many of whom are undocumented, form the backbone of industries ranging from construction to healthcare. The potential exodus could transform neighborhoods like Jackson Heights and Flushing, altering the very essence of what makes New York a global city.In the Sunshine State, Miami’s tropical allure belies the turbulent times ahead. Home to 2.5 million immigrants, the city’s economy relies heavily on sectors like tourism and hospitality – industries where undocumented workers often fill crucial roles. The potential deportation of these workers could send shockwaves through Miami’s economic ecosystem, from South Beach’s glitzy hotels to the agricultural heartlands of South Florida.
Chicago, the “City of Big Shoulders,” may find those shoulders significantly weakened. With 1.7 million immigrants in its metropolitan area, the Windy City’s diverse neighborhoods and industries face an uncertain future. From the meatpacking plants to the tech startups, Chicago’s economic resilience could be tested like never before.
In the Lone Star State, Houston and Dallas stand as twin testaments to the complexities of immigration policy. These Texas titans, each home to large immigrant populations, could see their booming economies stumble. The construction sites that dot their ever-expanding skylines and the service industries that keep these cities humming could face unprecedented labor shortages.
Out West, the San Francisco Bay Area’s reputation as a bastion of innovation and progress could be challenged. The region’s tech industry, often reliant on immigrant talent, might find itself grappling with a new reality. From Silicon Valley’s coding campuses to the agricultural expanses of the Central Valley, California’s economic powerhouse could face a reckoning. Phoenix, rising from the Sonoran Desert, could see its growth trajectory altered. As Arizona’s urban center, it stands at the forefront of the immigration debate, potentially facing not just economic impacts but social and political upheaval as well.
These cities, along with others like San Diego and Las Vegas, are not just facing potential economic disruptions. They are staring down the barrel of profound social change. Family separations, community fragmentation, and the erosion of cultural enclaves built over generations are all possible consequences of mass deportations. Moreover, the fiscal implications are staggering. Undocumented immigrants contribute billions in taxes annually, often without receiving the full benefits of their contributions. Their sudden absence could leave gaping holes in city budgets, potentially affecting public services and infrastructure projects.
As these urban centers brace for impact, the debate rages on. Supporters of stricter immigration policies argue for the need to enforce laws and protect American jobs. Critics warn of economic devastation and the unraveling of America’s urban fabric. What’s clear is that America’s cities stand at a crossroads. The coming months and years will likely reshape urban landscapes in ways both visible and invisible. From the foods we eat to the services we rely on, from the neighborhoods we call home to the very character of our cities, the impacts of this proposed immigration crackdown could be far-reaching and long-lasting. As the nation watches and waits, these cities – vibrant, diverse, and economically vital – find themselves on the front lines of a policy that could redefine what it means to be an American city in the 21st century.
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Business
How Trump’s Deportation Plans Could Reshape Major Cities
In the wake of Donald Trump’s recent election victory, his ambitious plans for mass deportations have thrust America’s urban centers into the spotlight. As the nation grapples with the potential implications of what Trump calls “the largest deportation operation in American history,” cities across the country are bracing for significant changes that could reshape their economic, social, and cultural landscapes.
The stakes are particularly high for metropolitan areas like New York, Los Angeles, Houston, Dallas, and Miami, which host the largest populations of unauthorized immigrants. These cities, along with other major urban hubs such as Chicago, Washington D.C., and San Francisco, stand at the forefront of a looming transformation that could reverberate throughout the nation.
Economic Tremors
Economists warn that the proposed deportations could send shockwaves through urban economies. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s, cautions that businesses would face “significant challenges” if a substantial number of immigrants were removed. Industries such as construction, hospitality, and healthcare—pillars of urban economies—could face severe labor shortages.
Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, emphasizes the potential ripple effects: “The native-born workforce cannot meet current labor demands.” This labor gap could lead to increased wages, potentially rekindling inflation—a concern that looms large over city planners and policymakers alike.
Community Fabric Under Strain
Beyond economic considerations, the social fabric of cities hangs in the balance. Elena, a Nicaraguan immigrant in Houston, voices a fear echoed in immigrant communities across the nation: “I’m scared… This is my home.” The threat of family separations, particularly in mixed-status households, casts a long shadow over urban neighborhoods.
Immigrant advocacy groups like FIEL are mobilizing, advising clients to prepare for “anything that can happen.” This atmosphere of uncertainty could lead to decreased community engagement and cooperation with local authorities, potentially impacting public safety and community cohesion.
Cities at a Crossroads
As the debate intensifies, cities find themselves at a crossroads. Some, like New York and Los Angeles, have historically positioned themselves as “sanctuary cities,” often at odds with federal immigration enforcement. The impending clash between federal policy and local governance promises to be a defining feature of this new political landscape.
Meanwhile, the logistical challenges of implementing such a massive deportation operation remain daunting. Questions abound regarding detention facilities, transportation networks, and the sheer manpower required to carry out Trump’s vision.
Looking Ahead
As America’s urban centers brace for potential change, the full impact of Trump’s deportation plans remains to be seen. Legal challenges are all but certain, and the resilience of America’s cities will be put to the test.
What is clear is that the coming months and years will be pivotal for urban America. As Jason Miller, a senior Trump adviser, puts it, the plan is to “immediately reinstate” immigration policies from Trump’s first term. For America’s cities, this could mean a period of unprecedented change, challenge, and, potentially, transformation.
As the nation watches and waits, the story of America’s cities in the face of this ambitious deportation plan is just beginning to unfold. The outcome will undoubtedly shape the future of urban life in America for years to come.
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Business
Donald Trump Wins 2024 USA Election
Based on the election results, Donald Trump has indeed won the 2024 U.S. presidential election, defeating Vice President Kamala Harris. Here’s an analysis of the key statistics and implications:
Electoral College Victory
Donald Trump has secured the presidency by winning crucial battleground states and flipping some key states that were previously held by Democrats. The final Electoral College tally is still being determined, but Trump has surpassed the 270 electoral votes needed to win.
Battleground State Performance
Trump’s victory was largely secured by winning several critical swing states:
- Wisconsin: Trump’s win here was pivotal in securing his path to victory.
- Pennsylvania: This state flipped back to Republican control.
- Georgia: Another key state that Trump managed to win back.
- Michigan: Trump successfully flipped this traditionally Democratic stronghold.
Popular Vote and Voter Priorities
While the final popular vote tally is still being calculated, exit polls provide insight into voter priorities:
- Economy and democracy were top concerns for voters.
- Abortion and immigration also played significant roles in voter decision-making.
Congressional Control
The election results extend beyond the presidency:
- Republicans are set to take back the Senate majority, securing at least 51 seats.
- Control of the House of Representatives remains undetermined.
Media Implications
The outcome of this election could be seen as a challenge to mainstream media narratives for several reasons:
- Polling Discrepancies: Many pre-election polls suggested a tight race or even a slight Harris advantage in key states. Trump’s victory, particularly in battleground states, may indicate that polls underestimated his support.
- Narrative Shifts: Throughout the campaign, much of the mainstream media focused on Trump’s legal challenges and controversies. His victory suggests that these issues may not have resonated with voters as much as economic and policy concerns.
- Voter Priorities: The emphasis on issues like the economy and immigration in voter decision-making may indicate a disconnect between media focus and voter concerns.
- Electoral Predictions: Many mainstream outlets were cautious about predicting a Trump victory, even as results began to favor him. This hesitancy could be seen as a reflection of broader media skepticism about Trump’s chances.
- Underestimation of Trump’s Base: The results suggest that Trump’s core support remained strong and potentially grew, despite negative coverage in much of the mainstream media.
It’s important to note that while the election outcome may challenge some media narratives, it doesn’t necessarily invalidate all mainstream reporting. The complex factors influencing voter behavior and the challenges of accurate political forecasting remain subjects of ongoing analysis and debate.
As the dust settles on this historic election, both the media and political analysts will likely engage in extensive reflection on the factors that led to Trump’s victory and the implications for future political coverage and analysis.
Bolanle Media is excited to announce our partnership with The Newbie Film Academy to offer comprehensive courses designed specifically for aspiring screenwriters. Whether you’re just starting out or looking to enhance your skills, our resources will provide you with the tools and knowledge needed to succeed in the competitive world of screenwriting. Join us today to unlock your creative potential and take your first steps toward crafting compelling stories that resonate with audiences. Let’s turn your ideas into impactful scripts together!
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