Business
Tax deal could get new life under top-line spending agreement on January 11, 2024 at 11:00 am Business News | The Hill
Senate and House tax experts met Wednesday as they pushed to strike a tax deal that could reinstate business deductions in exchange for an enlargement of the child tax credit (CTC).
After failing to emerge from the yearly tax extenders debate at the ends of 2023 and 2022, the potential deal is getting new life as Congress attempts to pass a bipartisan spending bill ahead of a Jan. 19 deadline to avoid a partial shutdown.
Experts say the tax deal is closer to happening now in the wake of a $1.66 trillion top-line spending agreement announced over the weekend and a flurry of House and Senate meetings.
IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel was on Capitol Hill on Wednesday to brief the Senate Finance Committee on the employee retention tax credit (ERC). The ERC has been a locus of bogus business activity, and experts have considered changes as a way to pay for the CTC and business credit trade-off.
Werfel told Senate Finance about the effect of pausing ERC claims processing following concerns about fraud, which resulted in a 40-percent decline in average weekly claims, according to a readout provided to The Hill.
“This month, the IRS will be sending more than 3,000 new compliance-related letters to companies with both processed and unprocessed claims. At the same time, we are working to put in place protections against fraud that will eventually allow us to process additional legitimate ERC claims,” Werfel told the committee.
Tax experts say they think a deal could be just around the corner and that the ERC could factor into it.
“We feel closer to a bipartisan agreement on the CTC and these big three business provisions than at any point in the last two and a half years, going back to late 2021,” Andrew Lautz, a fiscal policy analyst with the Bipartisan Policy Center, a Washington think tank, told The Hill.
Lautz said he thought lawmakers were considering making changes to the ERC to help pay for the tax cuts coming out of the potential deal.
“The trend with the ERC is that it started as a pandemic-era tax break targeted at employers to make sure they kept workers on payroll during that really challenging time, and now it’s morphed into something different for the claimants, given the aggressive marketing and promotion around the credit,” he said.
However, political and practical obstacles to a deal remain, including potential resistance from state and local tax advocates as well as pushback on changing the tax code right before tax filing season opens on Jan. 29. What exactly the legislative vehicle would be is another open question, as House conservatives revolt against the agreement struck by Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.)
Despite the House tension, staffers on Capitol Hill tell The Hill that the broad contours of the tax deal are still in place.
“Senator Wyden is focused on getting the biggest possible cut to child poverty through the CTC in exchange for a handful of business provisions,” a Democratic aide on the Senate Finance Committee told The Hill on Wednesday morning ahead of a meeting of the committee’s Democrats, led by Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.)
The CTC was expanded during the pandemic shutdown and raised millions of children above the poverty line, motivating many economic progressives, as well as some Republicans, to argue for a more permanent expansion.
The credit was made fully refundable under the 2021 American Rescue Plan and was boosted from $2,000 to $3,600 for children younger than 6 years old and to $3,000 for children under the age of 18.
“One year on, the Census Bureau confirmed child poverty in 2021 was cut almost in half (a 46 percent reduction) from 2020 levels, down to the lowest levels on record. Census notes that approximately 90 percent of this historic reduction can be attributed to the expanded credit,” researchers from Columbia University wrote in a 2022 study of the CTC.
Child poverty rose fast in that year after the expiration of the expanded credit, with 3.7 million more American children below the poverty line in January 2022 than in December 2021, the researchers noted.
Of the 2.9 million additional children kept above the poverty line by the CTC in 2021, about two-thirds were Black or Hispanic, with 716,000 Black children and 1.2 million Hispanic children lifted from poverty, according to a census study.
The Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) found that after accounting for macroeconomic effects, the expanded CTC would reduce federal revenues by $1.4 trillion between 2022 and 2032.
The JCT analysis admits that it ignores “potential human capital losses from parents leaving the workforce” as well as “any potential long-run benefits from a reduction in child poverty.”
“Policymakers should prioritize the 19 million children who currently get only a partial Child Tax Credit or none at all because their families earn too little,” Chuck Marr, a vice president for tax policy at the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities, a left-leaning nonprofit, wrote in a Wednesday policy note.
The business deductions up for discussion in the deal are for research and experimentation costs, interest payments, and sped-up depreciation scheduling. While they apply to businesses across the economy, each provision has advantages for particular sectors.
Research and experimentation write-offs are favored by companies with intensive research and development, such those in the pharmaceutical and technology industries.
The interest deduction can boost profits for companies that use a lot of debt to transact their business, such as the leveraged buyouts undertaken by private equity firms.
Deducting depreciation costs more quickly helps companies with a lot of fixed capital investment, like those in manufacturing and real estate.
All three deductions were taken away in the 2017 Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA) — the Republican tax cut bill enacted by former President Trump — to help pay for the large reduction to the U.S. corporate tax rate, which was slashed to 21 percent from 35 percent.
All told, the TCJA will have added $1.46 trillion to the national deficit between 2018 and 2027, with $653 billion of that due to business tax reforms, according to the JCT.
Taking away the research write-offs gave the government $119.7 billion in revenue through 2027, while limiting interest deductions produced $253.4 billion, according to the JCT, though these numbers are likely to change substantially in the current deal-making process, especially if the timing of it is limited to 2025 when the larger provisions in the TCJA are set to expire.
“The research credit … is by far the biggest,” Howard Gleckman, a tax analyst with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, told The Hill in an interview. “JCT estimates it’s around $140 billion between 2023 and 2025. The bonus depreciation is about half that, about $65 to $70 billion between ‘23 and ‘25. Business interest deduction is about $14 billion.”
Beyond speculation about the ERC, it’s not clear how the resumed business deductions or the CTC expansion would be paid for, or whether the tax cuts will simply be added to the deficit.
“I would be shocked if they paid for it,” Gleckman said. “This is why the budget deficit keeps going up. Instead of paying for new tax cuts, the deal that they make is, ‘You get yours and we get ours.’”
Business, Domestic Taxes, News, business taxes, Child Tax Credit, Danny Werfel, IRS, Senate Finance Committee, Ways and Means Committee Senate and House tax experts met Wednesday as they pushed to strike a tax deal that could reinstate business deductions in exchange for an enlargement of the child tax credit (CTC). After failing to emerge from the yearly tax extenders debate at the ends of 2023 and 2022, the potential deal is getting new life…
Business
Harvard Grads Jobless? How AI & Ghost Jobs Broke Hiring

America’s job market is facing an unprecedented crisis—and nowhere is this more painfully obvious than at Harvard, the world’s gold standard for elite education. A stunning 25% of Harvard’s MBA class of 2025 remains unemployed months after graduation, the highest rate recorded in university history. The Ivy League dream has become a harsh wakeup call, and it’s sending shockwaves across the professional landscape.

Jobless at the Top: Why Graduates Can’t Find Work
For decades, a Harvard diploma was considered a golden ticket. Now, graduates send out hundreds of résumés, often from their parents’ homes, only to get ghosted or auto-rejected by machines. Only 30% of all 2025 graduates nationally have found full-time work in their field, and nearly half feel unprepared for the workforce. “Go to college, get a good job“—that promise is slipping away, even for the smartest and most driven.
Tech’s Iron Grip: ATS and AI Gatekeepers
Applicant tracking systems (ATS) and AI algorithms have become ruthless gatekeepers. If a résumé doesn’t perfectly match the keywords or formatting demanded by the bots, it never reaches human eyes. The age of human connection is gone—now, you’re just a data point to be sorted and discarded.
AI screening has gone beyond basic qualifications. New tools “read” for inferred personality and tone, rejecting candidates for reasons they never see. Worse, up to half of online job listings may be fake—created simply to collect résumés, pad company metrics, or fulfill compliance without ever intending to fill the role.
The Experience Trap: Entry-Level Jobs Require Years
It’s not just Harvard grads who are hurting. Entry-level roles demand years of experience, unpaid internships, and portfolios that resemble a seasoned professional, not a fresh graduate. A bachelor’s degree, once the key to entry, is now just the price of admission. Overqualified candidates compete for underpaid jobs, often just to survive.
One Harvard MBA described applying to 1,000 jobs with no results. Companies, inundated by applications, are now so selective that only those who precisely “game the system” have a shot. This has fundamentally flipped the hiring pyramid: enormous demand for experience, shrinking chances for new entrants, and a brutal gauntlet for anyone not perfectly groomed by internships and coaching.
Burnout Before Day One
The cost is more than financial—mental health and optimism are collapsing among the newest generation of workers. Many come out of elite programs and immediately end up in jobs that don’t require degrees, or take positions far below their qualifications just to pay the bills. There’s a sense of burnout before careers even begin, trapping talent in a cycle of exhaustion, frustration, and disillusionment.
Cultural Collapse: From Relationships to Algorithms
What’s really broken? The culture of hiring itself. Companies have traded trust, mentorship, and relationships for metrics, optimizations, and cost-cutting. Managers no longer hire on potential—they rely on machines, rankings, and personality tests that filter out individuality and reward those who play the algorithmic game best.
AI has automated the very entry-level work that used to build careers—research, drafting, and analysis—and erased the first rung of the professional ladder for thousands of new graduates. The result is a workforce filled with people who know how to pass tests, not necessarily solve problems or drive innovation.
The Ghost Job Phenomenon
Up to half of all listings for entry-level jobs may be “ghost jobs”—positions posted online for optics, compliance, or future needs, but never intended for real hiring. This means millions of job seekers spend hours on applications destined for digital purgatory, further fueling exhaustion and cynicism.
Not Lazy—Just Locked Out
Despite the headlines, the new class of unemployed graduates is not lazy or entitled—they are overqualified, underleveraged, and battered by a broken process. Harvard’s brand means less to AI and ATS systems than the right keyword or résumé format. Human judgment has been sidelined; individuality is filtered out.

What’s Next? Back to Human Connection
Unless companies rediscover the value of human potential, mentorship, and relationships, the job search will remain a brutal numbers game—one that even the “best and brightest” struggle to win. The current system doesn’t just hurt workers—it holds companies back from hiring bold, creative talent who don’t fit perfect digital boxes.
Key Facts:
- 25% of Harvard MBAs unemployed, highest on record
- Only 30% of 2025 grads nationwide have jobs in their field
- Nearly half of grads feel unprepared for real work
- Up to 50% of entry-level listings are “ghost jobs”
- AI and ATS have replaced human judgment at most companies
If you’ve felt this struggle—or see it happening around you—share your story in the comments. And make sure to subscribe for more deep dives on the reality of today’s economy and job market.
This is not just a Harvard problem. It’s a sign that America’s job engine is running on empty, and it’s time to reboot—before another generation is locked out.
Business
Why 9 Million Americans Have Left

The Growing American Exodus
Nearly 9 million Americans now live outside the United States—a number that rivals the population of several states and signals a profound shift in how people view the American dream. This mass migration isn’t confined to retirees or the wealthy. Thanks to remote work, digital nomad visas, and mounting pressures at home, young professionals, families, and business owners are increasingly joining the ranks of expats.

Rising Costs and Shrinking Wallets
Living in the US has become increasingly expensive. Weekly grocery bills topping $300 are not uncommon, and everyday items like coffee and beef have surged in price over the last year. Rent, utilities, and other essentials also continue to climb, leaving many Americans to cut meals or put off purchases just to make ends meet. In contrast, life in countries like Mexico or Costa Rica often costs just 50–60% of what it does in the US—without sacrificing comfort or quality.
Health Care Concerns Drive Migration
America’s health care system is a major trigger for relocation. Despite the fact that the US spends more per person on health care than any other country, millions struggle to access affordable treatment. Over half of Americans admit to delaying medical care due to cost, with households earning below $40,000 seeing this rate jump to 63%. Many expats point to countries such as Spain or Thailand, where health care is both affordable and accessible, as a major draw.

Seeking Safety Abroad
Public safety issues—especially violent crime and gun-related incidents—have made many Americans feel unsafe, even in their own communities. The 2024 Global Peace Index documents a decline in North America’s safety ratings, while families in major cities often prioritize teaching their children to avoid gun violence over simple street safety. In many overseas destinations, newly arrived American families report a significant improvement in their sense of security and peace of mind.
Tax Burdens and Bureaucracy
US tax laws extend abroad, requiring expats to file annual returns and comply with complicated rules through acts such as FATCA. For some, the burden of global tax compliance is so great that thousands relinquish their US citizenship each year simply to escape the paperwork and scrutiny.
The Digital Nomad Revolution
Remote work has unlocked new pathways for Americans. Over a quarter of all paid workdays in the US are now fully remote, and more than 40 countries offer digital nomad visas for foreign professionals. Many Americans are leveraging this opportunity to maintain their US incomes while cutting costs and upgrading their quality of life abroad.

Conclusion: Redefining the Dream
The mass departure of nearly 9 million Americans reveals deep cracks in what was once considered the land of opportunity. Escalating costs, inaccessible healthcare, safety concerns, and relentless bureaucracy have spurred a global search for better options. For millions, the modern American dream is no longer tied to a white-picket fence, but found in newfound freedom beyond America’s borders.
Business
Will Theaters Crush Streaming in Hollywood’s Next Act?

Hollywood is bracing for a pivotal comeback, and for movie lovers, it’s the kind of shake-up that could redefine the very culture of cinema. With the freshly merged Paramount-Skydance shaking up its strategy, CEO David Ellison’s announcement doesn’t just signal a change—it reignites the passion for moviegoing that built the magic of Hollywood in the first place.

Theatrical Experience Roars Back
Fans and insiders alike have felt the itch for more event movies. For years, streaming promised endless options, but fragmented attention left many longing for communal spectacle. Now, with Paramount-Skydance tripling its film output for the big screen, it’s clear: studio leaders believe there’s no substitute for the lights, the hush before the opening credits, and the collective thrill of reacting to Hollywood’s latest blockbusters. Ellison’s pivot away from streaming exclusives taps deep into what unites cinephiles—the lived experience of cinema as art and event, not just content.
Industry Pulse: From Crisis to Renaissance
On the financial front, the numbers are as electrifying as any plot twist. After years of doubt, the box office is roaring. AMC, the world’s largest theater chain, reports a staggering 26% spike in moviegoer attendance and 36% revenue growth in Q2 2025. That kind of momentum hasn’t been seen since the heyday of summer tentpoles—and it’s not just about more tickets sold. AMC’s strategy—premium screens, with IMAX and Dolby Cinema, curated concessions, and branded collectibles—has turned every new release into an event, driving per-customer profits up nearly 50% compared to pre-pandemic norms.
Blockbusters Lead the Culture
Forget the gloom of endless streaming drops; when films like Top Gun: Maverick, Mission: Impossible, Minecraft, and surprise hits like Weapons and Freakier Friday draw crowds, the industry—and movie fans—sit up and take notice. Movie-themed collectibles and concession innovations, from Barbie’s iconic pink car popcorn holders to anniversary tie-ins, have made each screening a moment worth remembering, blending nostalgia and discovery. The focus: high-impact, shared audience experiences that streaming can’t replicate.
Streaming’s Limits and Studio Strategy
Yes, streaming is still surging, but the tide may be turning. The biggest franchises, and the biggest cultural events, happen when audiences come together for a theatrical release. Paramount-Skydance’s shift signals to rivals that premium storytelling and box office spectacle are again at the center of Hollywood value creation. The result is not just higher profits for exhibitors like AMC, but a rebirth of movie-going as the ultimate destination for fans hungry for connection and cinematic adventure.

Future Forecast: Culture, Community, and Blockbuster Dreams
As PwC and others warn that box office totals may take years to fully catch up, movie lovers and industry leaders alike are betting that exclusive theatrical runs, enhanced viewing experiences, and fan-driven engagement are the ingredients for long-term recovery—and a new golden age. The Paramount-Skydance play is more than a business move; it’s a rallying cry for the art of the theatrical event. Expect more big bets, more surprises, and—finally—a long-overdue renaissance for the silver screen.
For those who believe in the power of cinema, it’s a thrilling second act—and the best seat in the house might be front and center once again.
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